Maestrobjwa

Well then who the heck is gonna kick people out?

In a Nina February? Absolutely.

I'm glad my amateur thinking was in line with an expert When I saw that first wave be that weak I kinda figured the second one would be less disrupted. So back to the weenie rule of rooting for one wave to fail so the next one is even better?

Yeah yesterday's collective model head fake at 12z was nasty work, lol It was hard to ignore...but this was a rare occaison where I guess they all made the same mistake. Ah well...what's a little more model run delirium to shake off, eh?

Well lately the whole thing has largely been bunk. Just talking about how things worked prior to this 9-year -PDO (and whatever else) disaster stretch. Things seem to be a little better this year...

On this part I think you misunderstand me. I would be ecstatic if it happened. But I just don't like to bet on post PD for bigger snows because it just doesn't happen often enough. I just don't trust it, tbh. Yeah you could point to an example here or there, but we have more hits in prime climo than outside of it! So it's more of a confidence thing...I'd rather take a swing for a 6"+ during the historically best calendar period for snow than to try for afterward. Feels like ya have a better chance! But this isn't scientific though, lol As far as next week is concerned, I'm not at all giving up on snow prospects. Though admittedly I did lose a little interest for Tues-Wed. Hey we do better with warning events on weekends anyway (another weird historical quirk we have around here)

Just a shame we couldn't get the expected setup for that window earlier! Been awhile since we timed something bigger in our best window (mid Jan--PD). The 6"+ outside those dates are too few and far between for me to not feel that "too late!" feeling. But I guess it'll be something if we can score some minor events...

You taking that from Job? Lol

Funny how not a one of those look like the op, lol

GEFS was the pacifier...lol

Yeah this run is starting to smell like an egg burp. If the Euro doesn't do it later, then it just may be.

Just so happens to match the Jan 2019 fringe job up my way exactly, lolol (4.8" was the official total)

It may be better to just let a couple do the pbp

Yes...for YOU. But seeing as your snow standards are rather extreme when it comes to what's a success, why knock the thread even more off-kilter than it usually is? Folks read that and think it's an actual disaster when it isn't.

Yeah and if that were to be the lowest side of the goal post then we'd be in a pretty good spot! I do wonder if that (a warmer scenario) would be the only fail scenario here. And I'm not saying that's on the table, but we had great runs earlier so I'm just trying to see the scenarios!

For some of us even 6-10" would be better than that, lol

When ya have 7 days to go and you have rare model agreement look so good at that range, I can't help but wondering what the fail scenario would be. Since you're good at mapping those out...go

I'm too afraid to even say that yet, lol

Ohhh you sadist

Hey I didn't know you were a music nerd! See me in the forum green room otherwise known as the banter thread Really like that concerto too!

Goodness gracious. Whoa boy...gonna be a long week of tracking no matter what happens!

An "upper bound"?

Ah so it is indeed coming in earlier? Interesting

They do? How about a shout out for us Baltimoreans

I was just thinking about this the other day...February has been unusually barren over the last 10 years (hopefully that's about to change). It's like every Feb we are punting most if not all of it. That's why already being able to track something to start off February is quite refreshing!