Maestrobjwa

Thanks for the write-up @psuhoffman! A good reference to have..So essentially, I gather from this is that pure Miller B's are kinda heartbreakers that either screw us completely or, at best, give us a small-moderate amount while dumping more further north/northeast? Could we say, then...that the next time we have a modeled pure Miller B, it's better to look at it as low probability? (no matter what the op depictions are, lol) The southern system part makes sense...I can see STJ involvement is kind of our bread and butter isn't it?

Yeah I mean...we weren't even expecting this to be a thing a week ago. As you said, this would be pretty much gravy on top of what could lie ahead if things keep trending well!

So let's see...we have this scar, and the Boxing day scar. Both between Christmas and New Year's...I rest my case, lol Never trust that time frame down here for decent snow, folks! Wait till afterward...most of the medium/big ones fall between early/mid January and President's Day.

Ah I see...(same thing about the date, though...moderate to big storms don't happen between Christmas and New Year's, lol) Now...I'm still unclear on what Miller B's fo here...Now I assumed they were like a 90% failure here because of the problem of developing too late. Yet we can do better with a hybrid? @psuhoffman @CAPE or anybody else care to weigh in on this?

A snow event didn't work on December 27th? Surprise, surprise...lol What happened that time...suppression?

Ah, a GOOD head fake for a change!

Love seeing the active STJ! (assuming that's what I'm looking at, lol) Now that's a bit atypical for a nina right? (If so, it's refreshing to have a something be a GOOD atypical for a change!)

Happy New Year everyone!! God bless

Sweet mercy...are you over there? Lol

It's that stupid emoji he used that did it! I kinda despise that thing, lol

Alright kids...sing it: So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min min min min-min min-min So-lar min!

Rubble or the dinosaur? (but seriously what are you referring too? Lol)

Now you know that caveat won't work...worrying will always commence, lol

The second blizzard was pretty cold...although I remember there being a warm layer there that turned to freezing rain for a time in the corridor (and my 19 year-old ungrateful self was sittin' there complaining about it, smh)

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

Forgot about that one. Mainly because the rest of winter was supposed to be promising per weeklies and it failed Let me ask you something...are you ever actually thankful when you do get snow?

We sure did...which is why I don't even count it!

Ah yes...I think the article I copy and pasted from was from before 2016, lol And yeah I know YOU know...posting more for others here!

Yeah seriously though...I'm not sure why folks are fretting over having to wait until mid/late January...that IS our primo. Just take a look at this list of our biggest storms, and when they occured: (courtesy of the Baltimore Sun) Notice that of the top 20, only 3 occurred before the middle of January. The rest occurred after that! 1. Feb. 15-18, 2003: 28.2 inches 2. Jan. 27-29, 1922: 26.5 inches 3. Feb. 5-6, 2010: 24.8 inches* 4. Feb. 11, 1983: 22.8 inches 5. Jan. 7-8, 1996: 22.5 inches 6. Mar. 29-30, 1942: 22.0 inches 7. Feb. 11-14, 1899: 21.4 inches 8. Dec. 18-19, 2009: 21.1 inches 9. Feb. 18-19, 1979: 20.0 inches 10. Feb. 9-10, 2010: 19.5 inches 11. Mar. 15-18, 1892: 16.0 inches 12. Feb. 15, 1958: 15.5 inches 13. Jan. 25, 2000: 14.9 inches 14. Dec. 11-12, 1960: 14.1 inches 15. Feb. 11-12, 2006: 13.1 inches 16. Mar. 5-7, 1962: 13.0 inches 17: Jan. 22, 1987: 12.3 inches 18. Jan. 30-31, 1966: 12.1 inches 19. Feb. 16-18, 1900: 12.0 inches 20. Mar. 13-14, 1993: 11.9 inches

This here...is why I'm a tad anxious about how things turn out this winter--because it could have implications for the future. Could we not say that by the end of this winter we'll know if our snow climo is more damaged? Because I mean...if we get money looks and they don't work as well...that is foreboding. Because then you couldn't say "try again next year", because the over climo would be more hostile. So this winter is gonna be very important for our future snow prospects...and that's a tad nerve-wracking. Our snow future could be riding on what we see this year, couldn't it?

Now on those maps you guys post...above normal heights are shown in red?

Well I've certainly learned something this evening...especially the part about the Chinook effect...and why an EPO ridge is helpful (though I still need clarity on exactly what it is). Thanks for breaking that down!

Well in your case, I kinda assume that...lol

No...from what the knowledgeable posters have said on here...doesn't have to be PERFECT...but just not hostile. (I think PSU said something to the effect of...when other things are great all an opposing factor has to be is mediocre and we can still make things work)

Ya mean like this? (sorry mods I couldn't resist)