DocATL
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Just hard to conceive of winter when it’s just this run after run… .
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Unfortunately the teleconnections are not trending great. Namely, the AO is headed positive. It does look like we start tapping into some gulf moisture which will take our temps down a few notches for sure. There’s not much cold air outside the far north east over the next few weeks. So essentially we move from very warm and dry to warm and wet. I prefer the former personally, but it is what it is. .
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Wetter for sure. Colder we’ll see. I do think that lake effect areas will get cranking in late winter and spring, however. .
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Yes, this is kind of exciting. The latest first freeze for Chicago is November 24. I think we could beat that. .
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Thought this was pretty crazy… https://wgntv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2024/10/COOLJUNE-27.jpg .
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[emoji2375] .
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For the first time we are seeing some evidence of the pattern breaking down on the ensembles. Though to be honest there are not truly cold anomalies really anywhere. It’s weird. .
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Solid soaker for northern Illinois. Much needed! .
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Yeah things seem to get more active for sure. That carrot was briefly dangled earlier this month too. I guess we will see. .
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The first half this year at the very least looks reliably warm. .
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One small benefit of all the dry weather is some good colors. .
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These heights into Canada in November are insane. The jet stream buckling into far north Canada. Just wild and crazy stuff, folks. What a time to be alive. .
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Warmer than any Halloween I experienced when I lived in Atlanta. I’d guess it will moderate. .
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Good point, probably overdoing the magnitude. Ensembles have us warm but not 80’s. Lake effect areas are gonna get annihilated in February. There is so much heat energy in the lakes right now. .
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Oh yes I know it’s out to lala land, however, when you see that and you take into account how steadfast the ensembles have been about very impressive warmth, it’s not hard to see things playing out that way. We had a brief window of two or three days where models hinted at cold shots but that went away. .
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Chicago’s first freeze was Nov 2nd last year. Likely going to be well past that this year. .
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I read that this is the warmest year thus far since midway began recording in 1928. .
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Ummm yes. The 850’s at the end of the op run…never seen that before in November. Especially after a period of prolonged warmth. .
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https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1847600138174317053?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA lol…November forecast. Is this a joke? Literally no model shows this. .
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If ensembles are right we may be headed for some impressive warmth to close out the month. .
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Did you sleep through the 18z GFS trying to ruin Halloween? .
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Looks like the warmth continues indefinitely…70’s into October for many!! Not terrible! .
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First ensemble run in weeks to show sustained N to BN temps in the long range. Hopefully not a blip. .
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Unless we get some wave-breaker typhoon on the other side of the world to shake things up. .
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I’m with you. Just annoyed they closed our community pool after LDW. So arcane. .
