DocATL
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Finally. Good signals across the board. Remains to be seen how long that cut off low spins out west before sweeping east but a good signal for a widespread winter event to follow during Thanksgiving week. .
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Sorry to be redundant…couldn’t delete for some reason
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11/24/31 - I know that’s what you meant.
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53° feels frigid right now. Pattern continues to look active but with hints tha we will trend towards normal temps. .
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Interestingly with the exception of 2020 the markedly warm Novembers led to warm winters. [emoji2375] Doesn’t mean it won’t snow but we might be > +7F .
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Good points. November snows are rare. Thing is, we’re just looking for a day or two of below normal temps. The ensembles hint at it and then trend warm. That said 15° above normal will at least get us to low 50’s at some point. Perhaps we will get a December to remember. .
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Good stuff here! Fully agree November doesn’t predict the winter. I think it’s just hard to visualize a cold winter right now where we’ve basically had consistent ridging in the Midwest for the better part of 6 weeks without any sustained signal of it changing. This is during a year that is already one of the warmest ever recorded. .
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Seems like you’ve got a week or so before it just starts getting a little unfavorable in the temperature department. .
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I mean for what it’s worth these projections change daily. Also we aren’t dealing with absolutes. The pendulum will eventually swing. .
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Agree with you…currently not a warm Phase though we are decently above normal. Headed to warmer phases mid month. .
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We can hope for the lower amplitude squiggles in phase 2-3. Just seems like we go low amplitude in the colder phases and high in warm ones. But something has got to give. .
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MJO predicted to go high amplitude in warm faces, PNA trending negative, AO neutral, NAO weekly positive. Keep the golf clubs close. .
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Reminds me of many a fall in the southeast! .
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I’ve been watching this. Beating the Nov 24th latest first freeze for Chicago would only make sense with it being the warmest year on record. .
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The models have a tendency to arc towards climo in the long range. Lately they tend to warm up inside hr 200. .
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Thanks!! Kinda stuff I geek over! .
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Not at all… I’d expect November as a time of transition. Before moving here, I visited often and did not come across too many times when it was wintry in November. .
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I hear you. We aren’t going to be 75° three weeks from now. Totally understand. It’s more the two straight months of solidly above normal anomalies that are impressive. It has been a while since we have seen persistent below normal anomalies spanning for weeks. You could argue it’s because we have dated climate data but that’s another discussion. Anyway, at some point things will change. .
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Just hard to conceive of winter when it’s just this run after run… .
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Unfortunately the teleconnections are not trending great. Namely, the AO is headed positive. It does look like we start tapping into some gulf moisture which will take our temps down a few notches for sure. There’s not much cold air outside the far north east over the next few weeks. So essentially we move from very warm and dry to warm and wet. I prefer the former personally, but it is what it is. .
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Wetter for sure. Colder we’ll see. I do think that lake effect areas will get cranking in late winter and spring, however. .
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Yes, this is kind of exciting. The latest first freeze for Chicago is November 24. I think we could beat that. .
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Thought this was pretty crazy… https://wgntv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2024/10/COOLJUNE-27.jpg .
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[emoji2375] .
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For the first time we are seeing some evidence of the pattern breaking down on the ensembles. Though to be honest there are not truly cold anomalies really anywhere. It’s weird. .
