DocATL
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This weeks event may be a few token flakes for Chicago and that’s about it. We’ll be threading the needle next week. .
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Yeah…it ain’t a thing until the mesoscale models get involved.
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18z runs were meh. .
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European not eager to get on the west trend just yet so we’ll get a better picture of things over the weekend runs. .
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Trending back towards interesting on 18z GFS as the energy transfer happens further west. Going to be a few interesting days of model runs. .
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Ensembles show some decent negative anomalies gaining persistence in western Canada. This bodes well in terms of having a good source region for cold. .
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18z definitely following the trend there. Good set up for the interior northeast with a strongly negative NAO. Will see what December brings!
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Interesting 18z GFS run keeps Chicago and northern Illinois quite a bit warmer this run. Verbatim, Chicago would be without a freeze through just about the end of the month. The lows phase over the Ohio valley so they cash in over there. Will be fun to see how this plays out.
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Finally. Good signals across the board. Remains to be seen how long that cut off low spins out west before sweeping east but a good signal for a widespread winter event to follow during Thanksgiving week. .
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Sorry to be redundant…couldn’t delete for some reason
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11/24/31 - I know that’s what you meant.
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53° feels frigid right now. Pattern continues to look active but with hints tha we will trend towards normal temps. .
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Interestingly with the exception of 2020 the markedly warm Novembers led to warm winters. [emoji2375] Doesn’t mean it won’t snow but we might be > +7F .
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Good points. November snows are rare. Thing is, we’re just looking for a day or two of below normal temps. The ensembles hint at it and then trend warm. That said 15° above normal will at least get us to low 50’s at some point. Perhaps we will get a December to remember. .
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Good stuff here! Fully agree November doesn’t predict the winter. I think it’s just hard to visualize a cold winter right now where we’ve basically had consistent ridging in the Midwest for the better part of 6 weeks without any sustained signal of it changing. This is during a year that is already one of the warmest ever recorded. .
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Seems like you’ve got a week or so before it just starts getting a little unfavorable in the temperature department. .
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I mean for what it’s worth these projections change daily. Also we aren’t dealing with absolutes. The pendulum will eventually swing. .
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Agree with you…currently not a warm Phase though we are decently above normal. Headed to warmer phases mid month. .
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We can hope for the lower amplitude squiggles in phase 2-3. Just seems like we go low amplitude in the colder phases and high in warm ones. But something has got to give. .
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MJO predicted to go high amplitude in warm faces, PNA trending negative, AO neutral, NAO weekly positive. Keep the golf clubs close. .
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Reminds me of many a fall in the southeast! .
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I’ve been watching this. Beating the Nov 24th latest first freeze for Chicago would only make sense with it being the warmest year on record. .
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The models have a tendency to arc towards climo in the long range. Lately they tend to warm up inside hr 200. .
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Thanks!! Kinda stuff I geek over! .
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Not at all… I’d expect November as a time of transition. Before moving here, I visited often and did not come across too many times when it was wintry in November. .
