Rvarookie

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern. 

You know you always welcome down here Hasselhoff

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard.  Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week.  Also I'm not in Richmond.  I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately.

Yeh man tell that bum you don’t need to wish it south. I’m doing plenty of that myself

I got some big puddles of water in my yard 

Lol at the cold overnight lows only to be followed by cold rain tomorrow

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno...you’re in a temp bind. If this amps up it likely tucks too tight for you. If it doesn’t it’s unlikely to crash the temps. You need a lucky band as the upper low passes and I can’t predict that this far out. 

Sounds like same old problems lol. Thanks for the thoughts

@psuhoffman how we looking down here man?

42 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

For my selfish sakes it can stay right where it is. Don’t need it anymore north 

Ya got that right! 

I’ll take and call it a winter 

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

Well on the bright side least people can hear your shitty ass guitar gig 

1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

Get that porn for center VA out of here! Dam my eyes are hurting 

I’d hit it!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

Stupid maps suck ass

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z.  It does not strongly support its deterministic model.  There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run.   No GFS or GEFS support.  We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal...

I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough.  
 

 

 

Just stick with the the maps. The commentary doesn’t help either 

If this fails we may need to sacrifice this thread to protect future threats 

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is a slight improvement run they 9.75 days.

These maps always suck

I’ll take half and share other half with my northern neighbors if we can lock it in 

32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ponds froze over and I hit 0 °F in Wilson NC, which is in the coastal plain.  That is amazing for here.  Back then I had even less knowledge of global weather patterns than I do now, so I wasn't really paying attention to what was driving the cold.  Now I want to understand.

Always hit Wilson for Parker’s back in day

I’m buying it. This has to be it. This cold rain today is such a joke

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Went back and found this. 8" total but 6.5" max measured on the ground. Haven't had a storm that good since. Finished that winter slightly above average, at right around 19".

2018-19 was meh, with the biggest event being 5". Literally nothing since- just under an inch last winter.

 

Such a cool spot!

I wish it was possible to be reaped multiple times in a winter. Least last year we had some really warm days mixed in. This winter sucks ass

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

 

I know that the accuracy tends to drop off significantly out there, and that's also why I prefaced my post with saying that outside of 3 weeks the weeklies really go out of their way to go towards typical ENSO patterns. Although with that being said, my takeaway from that week 4 h5 map was that it was surprisingly not doing what it did the past few runs at that range, and instead tried to get us back into a favorable progression despite it's biases. Not worth much this far out, but will certainly be super fascinating to follow in about a week or two. 

yeah basically what CAPE just said 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Ji def took his meds today

Hopefully we can get some 70s to show up soon 

Crazy thing is I always feel like I’m cold this year. Feels like steady 20s in AM or low 30s with no sun. Last year felt so much warmer. Guess wfh has turned me softer than I was

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

To keep my expectations in check, I refuse to get head faked by the deterministic models outside 5 days anymore.   If their respective ensembles show some support, I keep an eye on it....

Yeh man just keep posting those maps and I’m sure they will lead us to the promise land 

Shout out to @CAPE and @psuhoffman for carrying the torch this year. At least it’s been better to read posts this year