Rvarookie

Hoping we all cash in this year. Pretty sure we have earned it. 

9 minutes ago, Dendrimer77 said:

Yeah, I get it. The entire event could implode and it's definitely not region wide either way. The comments just came off as petty. We all need to see a few flakes for the vibes to improve I think. 

Yeh I should have just let it slide. Obvious folks are on edge, but he just came in a little too hot on that one...

Just now, osfan24 said:

Internet tough guy number 2.  Must be something in the water down there.

I also find it interesting that these posters who I've never seen post here before come out of the woodwork now. Like someone said, Richmond is a part of another forum and their weather is quite often very different than here. It would be like someone going into the Philly forum and talking about the snow in DC.

I think that comparison is far off, but all good man. Hope you get some snow this year.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range and especially seasonal is getting increasingly difficult because we are seeing some influencers configured in ways we’ve never seen before. The pacific sst is completely out of wack and the QBO has been behaving odd the last several years. Add in warning across the board and historical analogs are less useful. 
 

I am guarded but getting somewhat optimistic this ninoesque pattern is real. It’s pretty consistent across all guidance and getting closer everyday.  It’s being driven by IO convection and the retrograde of the AK vortex, both of which is well underway. 
 

But I think 2 factors determine if we end up with a December that produces and doesn’t just tease.  We’ve had some decent patterns in Dec recently that did us no good. The first 10 days I think might be a challenge due to the lack of any true cold air source.  The recent pattern has prevented any cold from building on our side of the pole. It will take a while to fix that and initially the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast to allow cold into the equation. That may change as the pna ridge retrogrades in response to the AK vortex retrogression. In the meantime we’re dealing with a crap airmass. It could work with a perfect track and timing but it could be frustrating if things don’t come together perfectly. 
 

The last factor is what happens after Dec 10. I think the MJO will give a big clue as we get closer. There are signs it may finally try to propagate through the Maritime Continent mid December. Those are the warm phases for us.  However...I’ve found that when you get a weak or fast wave through phases in conflict with the base state it doesn’t have as much impact. That’s why some weak MJO waves in cold phases didn’t save us the last few years and it’s why some warm phases didn’t kill us in colder years. As we get closer if we see signs the mjo is racing through the MC at a weak amplitude that is a very good sign this pattern may persist. If we start to see signs it wants to stall and amplify while near the MC that would hint this was just a very temporary blip and the base state to the winter pattern is likely to be hostile. It’s too soon to say right now. We will start to get hints soon. 
 

Happy Thanksgiving 

Thanks for sharing. Hope you and fam have good thanksgiving 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 lol 

There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today.  

NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet.  

Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works.  Way too early to draw any conclusions though.  

 

You have quite bit of knowledge and always seem to be less weenie...How do you think this plays out for December?

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I like to lighten the mood with the snow maps with all of the gloom and doom about the winter forecast.  I realize they are mostly fantasy but can in a general sense signal windows of opportunity.  Lot of Eeyores in this group.   I can get that watching the news every night...

Eeyore is a character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey.  

Least he’s not full of shit 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Mow them. Does great and is good for your grass. Just wait until they are dry.

I refuse to rake or bag leaves. I just mow each week to keep up until they all fall

Hardywood gbs always sets the tone for this time of year. Looking forward to the release on Saturday 

1 hour ago, lawone9 said:

Been raining here for hours. Weather radio and phone alerts since early morning. Massive flooding and road closures in Chesterfield County, VA. 

Had to pack the car for the beach in that mess 

1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

I’m gonna try but I love beer and I tend to drink the crazy high calorie stuff. I might have to do it again in a month or 2 lol

Good display of discipline during such shitty times. Be proud of your self

Hawt.

4 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

A couple people on here may know I love beer and that I recently am doing a 30 day no alcohol challenge along with food diet, I just want to quickly tell my story in case anyone else wants help...

So since I’ve been doing this 30 day no drinking alcohol and diet thing I’ve been doing (day 20 by the way) the biggest difference other than the weight loss which is now 19 pounds is the change in my heart rate. Assuming Fitbit is somewhat accurate, my resting heart rate has went from the upper 60s to around 70, down to a new low of 56 today and I don’t have as many spikes in heart rate in just doing simple activity. Anyone who knows me knows I’m not a health freak by any stretch but it was time to do this 30 day thing and hopefully when I do decide to start occasionally drinking again, it will have helped me learn moderation. Anyone who’s looking to lose a little weight and just be overall healthier, I encourage you to try the 30 day no drinking and better eating plan! If you have any questions I’ll be happy to try to help! #NewMe #HealthierMe #2020sBeenWeirdButNotSoBadForMe!

 

 

Thanks for sharing. Been a crazy year and drinking def catching up to me, so need to pull back myself. Just imagine there are going to be lot of people running into all kinds of issues coming out of a tough year...

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 I don't think there is any particular time since covid. No HH time constraints at home.

I try to wait until at least 2 tho. Discipline.

I try so hard to wait myself lol

31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's Friday and getting close to HH.

That DFH WWS has been in the fridge all week..

HH starts at 2pm these days since we have passed July 4th 

40 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

RIC 110F in under 10 days?

I don’t know what the hell im looking at, but it doesn’t sound as cool as when these are posted during winter 

My neighborhood sounded like war zone last night. Folks really went all out this year lol

Toasty so might as well get toasted

15 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow you're not kidding!  Just checked Raleigh -- rain and 60, highs tomorrow low 60s.  Sheesh!  Meanwhile we are basking at 76 and partly sunny in central MD.  I feel for anyone that went to the Outer Banks or VA Beach this week.

Been in obx since Saturday and it’s been pretty miserable. Thankfully I got 2nd trip later in summer but this has been rough one

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

12z euro basically has nothing for next week.  Keeps all the rain in NC

Of course because it knows I’ll be at the beach and my typical start time of drinking at noon needs to be moved up to 9am to account for the chasing kids around 

5 minutes ago, SpringfieldSkins said:

Same with me. Looking pretty gross. Hoping for a shift in the meantime so we get some sun. I’m good with sunny and afternoon storms but it looks like a 3-4 day wash right now.

Agree. Sun and storms are fine. But dreary cloudy rainy days just suck

Heading to obx next week so figured weather would suck. How bad does it look?

88 and gross

Feels amazing out 

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

What a perfect spring morning.

I sure wish we could squeeze few more of these days in before we roast. This is perfect weather. Gives you a little pep in your step waking up to this

Assume 2020 will be considered the worst year? What a mess