Rvarookie

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrt Friday...most guidance tracks the surface low over the outer banks and the upper low across southern VA. That’s a track that normally would get some snow into DC. And you can see hints at that on the moisture and RH fields. But the NS is nowhere to be found. A rotting airmass with a crap weak baroclinic zone so very little lift and no organized precip outside the convective banding under the upper low just NW of the surface low. 

How does that impact RVA?

Least we used to have Bob chill to balance out vajinas posts

Let’s just cut the bs. When tf is it going to snow?

RVA is destined for this one. Has my name written all over it 

I think I should start a thread for this one. It’s a lock 

I hope RVA gets smoked and osubum is left questioning the MA boundaries 

thanks again for the enlightening discussion and optimism folks. I expect to be let down but least we have hope this year. 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is just an observation, and it isn’t directed at a particular individual or subforum, but it looks like we (collective we) are far more invested in what happens this winter season than any other I’ve seen in recent memory. 

Reaper bit aside, I hope we’re able to produce because I don’t want to see what these subforums look like if we’re strung along. 

Does feel like we are little on edge yet pretending we’re not lol.

If we do strike out this year, I hope we can remember the times last year where we said we just wished we had something to discuss. Least it’s not super boring and we have few survivors left to provide play by play. Rip to those we lost last winter...

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some of us don't honk. We just state what the current guidance is depicting, add a little context, and speculate a bit.

Ofc I am probably not a well respected poster, so no one really cares what I say.

Def well respected to me. Appreciate the effort 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean we pretty much know the next 2 weeks is probably lost. Maybe we get lucky but...the gfs does get the pac right by day 14 and the high latitudes are still very workable. 

Appreciate being straight shooter this year without same long essays over and over. Don’t let them suck you into telling us 500000 different ways this will suck. 

Hoping DC gets some snow over holiday so can grab some devils lettuce and jebwalk around town 

@osfan24 you ok bro? Always bitching these days...

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Your comment 

I always rely on you to cover for me and hide my posts whenever needed. Unlike others I appreciate it

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Dude.

?

Hoping we all cash in this year. Pretty sure we have earned it. 

9 minutes ago, Dendrimer77 said:

Yeah, I get it. The entire event could implode and it's definitely not region wide either way. The comments just came off as petty. We all need to see a few flakes for the vibes to improve I think. 

Yeh I should have just let it slide. Obvious folks are on edge, but he just came in a little too hot on that one...

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range and especially seasonal is getting increasingly difficult because we are seeing some influencers configured in ways we’ve never seen before. The pacific sst is completely out of wack and the QBO has been behaving odd the last several years. Add in warning across the board and historical analogs are less useful. 
 

I am guarded but getting somewhat optimistic this ninoesque pattern is real. It’s pretty consistent across all guidance and getting closer everyday.  It’s being driven by IO convection and the retrograde of the AK vortex, both of which is well underway. 
 

But I think 2 factors determine if we end up with a December that produces and doesn’t just tease.  We’ve had some decent patterns in Dec recently that did us no good. The first 10 days I think might be a challenge due to the lack of any true cold air source.  The recent pattern has prevented any cold from building on our side of the pole. It will take a while to fix that and initially the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast to allow cold into the equation. That may change as the pna ridge retrogrades in response to the AK vortex retrogression. In the meantime we’re dealing with a crap airmass. It could work with a perfect track and timing but it could be frustrating if things don’t come together perfectly. 
 

The last factor is what happens after Dec 10. I think the MJO will give a big clue as we get closer. There are signs it may finally try to propagate through the Maritime Continent mid December. Those are the warm phases for us.  However...I’ve found that when you get a weak or fast wave through phases in conflict with the base state it doesn’t have as much impact. That’s why some weak MJO waves in cold phases didn’t save us the last few years and it’s why some warm phases didn’t kill us in colder years. As we get closer if we see signs the mjo is racing through the MC at a weak amplitude that is a very good sign this pattern may persist. If we start to see signs it wants to stall and amplify while near the MC that would hint this was just a very temporary blip and the base state to the winter pattern is likely to be hostile. It’s too soon to say right now. We will start to get hints soon. 
 

Happy Thanksgiving 

Thanks for sharing. Hope you and fam have good thanksgiving 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1996 lol 

There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today.  

NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet.  

Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works.  Way too early to draw any conclusions though.  

 

You have quite bit of knowledge and always seem to be less weenie...How do you think this plays out for December?

49 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Heavy sleet now here in Midlothian.  I'm hoping it means we're about to flip to snow for the final burst.  My wife is dying for a day off tomorrow (Henrico public schools). 

Yep sleet is coming down pretty hard over here. Flakes still MIA

3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Just cleared the driveway.  That’s some heavy ass snow!  Glad I did it tonight before this freezing drizzle solidifies it.  I wouldn’t even be mad if there’s a fresh coat on it tomorrow.  Y’all be safe out there. Update your beneficiaries on your life insurance before you shovel just to be safe! 

I just did the same for 2nd time tonight. The first time shoveling around 4 wasn’t too bad, but that second round was pretty rough

Man what a great storm and for it to be during day has been awesome