I think Evan Kuchera’s formula just uses temperature at various levels of the column to determine ratios. Don’t believe wind is a component but maybe one of the pros here knows better.
Maximum fluff factor with this one. With no wind, have had some really large agglomerates here for most of the event.
Even so, pretty sure I’ll end up with more liquid than any model’s forecasted QPF.
PDO index is in for December. Lowest OND readings since the mid-1950’s. Pretty cool if we can get any kind of decent winter with these values leading in:
OCT -3.13
NOV -2.72
DEC -2.73
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
Have friends who just moved into their new waterfront home on the Northern Neck yesterday. Guess they will learn right away what a one-in-20 year flood looks like at their new property.
Sorry fir the late reply. The rain ended right around the time of my post but for most of the prior 45 minutes it was probably a top 3 event for torrential rain in the 15 years I’ve been at this location.