dryslot

SLP is still well south of here so we have a ways to go

There's many more to go.

I think where you are should be in good shape for this one.

There's more to go.

H5 track was further NW this run by a tic or two, Take a few more of these and it gets it more interesting for many.

It at least has the slp where it should be offshore rather then being way east.

This includes today's, And still going up here at hr90. This

06Z Euro looks tic or so further west then 0z so far @H5.

-SN, 27.9°F, 2.8" snow.

After brief shortwave ridging and a dry Saturday night/Sunday, the second storm system will approach from the southwest. This system will develop along the residual baroclinic gradient left in the wake of the first low along the trailing cold front, with cyclogenesis developing in response to renewed height falls/mid-level divergence and the LFQ of a subsequent jet streak arcing poleward from the Deep South. While there is uncertainty into the exact track of this second low as it will depend somewhat on the evolution of the first system, it is quite likely that a low will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic and then pass near the Benchmark before lifting into the Gulf of Maine Monday night. As this occurs, the mid-level shortwave will deepen and close off, potentially capturing the surface low which will be slowing due to downstream ridging. The ridging downstream could be significant enough to block eastward progress of this low, and while there is quite a bit of spread in the ensembles by D3, a track more NW of the operational runs seems likely as the downstream ridge gets reinforced and the upper trough interacts with this low. Current WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches both D2 (Catskills and terrain of SNE) and D3 (Maine and NH), but there is potential for quite a bit more, especially in Maine, where a stalling or retrograding low with persistent theta-e advection may occur and CIPS analogs suggest a greater than 60% chance for 6" of snow. After coordination with the offices believe the ensemble approach showing a subtle upward trend in probabilities is best at this time.

I trust everything i've seen today since 12z, This is going to end up an eastern solution that affects few here, There is still time and just a few changes could have big implications but for now, I have my doubt's.

She gone.

Yeah, That 3k was headed in a good direction.

Its going to be an eastern area event, Mid coast to DE Maine in line to get the goods as it looks right now, I'm looking for a few crumbs back here.

Nice capture and tug NW back to the coast up here.

100 mi shift east in one run? Uh huh yeah.

I love it when you get positive upstream bust.

I want to know the soil temps on the massif to see if he can retain a pack.

We tried to tell them.

Yeah, That's the best advice, Everyone is different, Start with a low dose and go from there, Don't start with my cookies though................

30"+ makes you complacent ha ha.

A tic or two better on the 18z Euro.

Attaboy Jer.