I think you're in a good spot on this, Its going to come down to the front getting far enough east before the disturbance rides the front NE for here, Euro has it timed right that its snows right to the coast.
Euro been quite persistent with the back end snows here on Monday and the GFS as well to some extent, These typically don't work out but this one has more of an over running look to it and not anafrontal.