dryslot

Maybe the storm got cancelled too............lol

Identified - The latest update from ECMWF indicates that both the 12z Euro Op and Ensemble will be delayed until further notice due to major network issues. We will update and begin processing the data as soon as it is made available by ECMWF. Jan 24, 2023 - 13:24 EST

Then it should have just ran on time...............

Just as i said that Investigating - Due to issues at the ECMWF, dissemination of the 12z Euro Op is delayed. We will begin processing the data as soon as it becomes available from ECMWF. Jan 24, 2023 - 13:06 EST

Have not read anything about an issue with this run.

12z Euro running late, Has not initialized.

NWS changed there criteria for winter storm warnings for coastal areas and elevations, i Believe its 6"/24 hrs for coastal and just inland and in foothills and higher elevations its 8"/24hr period that it has to fall into to meet warning criteria, Outside of those windows, Its WWA's.

Both would help many, I've been looking for some of those small changes, So far not the case but the messenger rule may come into play the next 24-30 hrs.

Like i have always said, You need to sniff the taint if you want the higher totals, The CF stayed just to my SE so it was all snow here. 000 NOUS41 KGYX 240145 PNSGYX MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-241345- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 845 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...Androscoggin County... Durham 16.0 in 0815 PM 01/23 Public 2 E Lewiston 15.0 in 0542 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 2 W Lisbon Falls 13.0 in 0530 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Mechanic Falls 12.5 in 0530 PM 01/23 Public 5 SE Canton 12.0 in 0638 PM 01/23 Public Lisbon 9.8 in 0230 PM 01/23 Public ...Cumberland County... 4 WSW New Gloucester 15.5 in 0755 PM 01/23 NWS Employee 2 NE Gray 15.0 in 0812 PM 01/23 NWS Employee 1 N Cumberland 14.3 in 0700 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 5 NNE East Baldwin 13.0 in 0805 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 5 S Bridgton 12.0 in 0540 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 4 SSE Gorham 11.9 in 0717 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter NWS Gray 11.6 in 0700 PM 01/23 Official NWS Obs 2 SSE North Windham 11.5 in 0400 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Brunswick 10.5 in 0557 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 1 NE Falmouth 9.8 in 0811 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 3 E South Windham 9.8 in 0400 PM 01/23 NWS Employee 4 SE Yarmouth 9.8 in 0823 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Portland Jetport 9.1 in 0700 PM 01/23 ASOS 1 NNW Cape Elizabeth 7.0 in 0821 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter ...Franklin County... 1 SE Jay 10.0 in 0500 PM 01/23 Public 2 NNW Farmington 6.0 in 0552 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter ...Kennebec County... 4 NNW Litchfield 14.5 in 0642 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 2 NE South China 13.5 in 0715 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Hallowell 13.2 in 0445 PM 01/23 Public 1 SW Gardiner 12.0 in 0500 PM 01/23 Public Waterville 12.0 in 0500 PM 01/23 Public 1 NW Farmingdale 11.5 in 0800 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Augusta 11.4 in 0345 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 2 W Vienna 11.0 in 0649 PM 01/23 Public ...Knox County... 2 SE Washington 10.5 in 0837 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Hope 9.5 in 0818 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter ...Lincoln County... 1 SSW Nobleboro 9.5 in 0745 PM 01/23 Public ...Oxford County... 1 ESE Norway 12.0 in 0600 PM 01/23 Public 3 N Porter 11.6 in 0400 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 3 WNW Brownfield 11.3 in 0345 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 4 NNW Casco 10.9 in 0415 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 4 WSW Turner 10.8 in 0445 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 2 NE Oxford 10.0 in 0300 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 3 S Greenwood 8.0 in 0504 PM 01/23 ...Sagadahoc County... 2 ENE Topsham 11.5 in 0807 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter ...Somerset County... Pittsfield 17.0 in 0819 PM 01/23 Public ...Waldo County... Morrill 14.0 in 0816 PM 01/23 Public Palermo 11.5 in 0813 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Northport 11.0 in 0815 PM 01/23 Public 2 NNE Knox 10.5 in 0645 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter Thorndike 10.5 in 0816 PM 01/23 Public Freedom 10.0 in 0819 PM 01/23 Public Belfast 9.0 in 0818 PM 01/23 Public Stockton Springs 9.0 in 0817 PM 01/23 Public ...York County... 4 ESE Limerick 16.3 in 0630 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 5 NNW Acton 16.0 in 0644 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 5 NW Hollis 14.6 in 0630 PM 01/23 CO-OP Observer 2 SSW East Baldwin 14.3 in 0630 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 4 NE Shapleigh 14.0 in 0814 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 5 NNW Berwick 12.0 in 0753 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 3 NE Limington 9.5 in 0515 PM 01/23 Trained Spotter 1 SW Old Orchard Beach 8.6 in 0812 PM 01/23 NWS Employee 3 NNE Berwick 5.5 in 0400 PM 01/23 Public

Pretty high probability of snow on the low end amount based off of 90%+ chance.

I like how the GFS tries to get cute with placing possible qpf amounts based off of elevation in there algorithm.

https://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

The point forecast is where i think we end up, 6-10" range over here.

6-10"

12z HRRR looked a bit warmer for ESNE, Doesn't look like it has much of a thump as the 06z run did there but take that output at this lead with a grain of salt.

Ha, What a quick turn of events, This pack will also get solidified, My concerns are going to be with power outages, For some its the same areas that were affected yesterday, York county here took a big hit and now this is going to be more widespread as the areas that saw fluff yesterday are going to see wet snow this go round onto trees that already are loaded with yesterdays once you have the changeover.

My totals were 6" on the 20th and 15" yesterday, And 8-12" on the P/C forecast, We will have to wait and see how it plays out for this one, Some of these models are torching here sooner, Want to see a few more cycles to see if they pick up on the CAD like they do inside 48hrs or so.

LFG!!

11"

This for our area i believe, But i can see some in the mtns getting 10-14" and Northern Maine, They missed out on this one.

Nothing but fluff here, Just lots of it............

Fell into the 15-18" zone by the time this last batch comes thru to get me another 0.2.

Hi res and mesos kept painting that narrow weenie stripe over the same areas and they did a good job as it came to fruition, I thought 6-10" was safe bet, I'm about ready to call in my update to the WFO for 6:00pm

6-12" on thurs is a good spot, It will come down to how quick the cold air gets scoured out in the mid levels .

Beer?