The northern stream s/w ended up trailing behind instead of being out ahead of the s/w down south so it raised heights out ahead of the surface low this run.
There is some confluence showing over QUE that looks to bleed SE so we have to watch that too coming up, Models really struggle recognizing CAD early on until we start getting inside 48 hrs or so.
Ha just stumbled on to his thread for the 23rd, Surprised by who started it, QPF distribution is quite thin, Ribbon thin but if you end up in that sliver, Its going to rock.
It intensifies once it gets up here dropping 10mb in 12hrs once its in the GOM but it look to be colder at the surface and aloft ahead of it getting here too.