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mappy

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Everything posted by mappy

  1. mappy
    perhaps.
  2. mappy
    southern end of that line in PA keeps growing.
  3. mappy
    How much for Philly doesn't work well in severe season. Try again in December.
  4. mappy
    @WxWatcher007 hasn't named a successor yet.
  5. mappy
    that's a bummer lol
  6. mappy
    i think we get one too, at least the northern areas.
  7. mappy
    yes, lets forget the professionals, completely. good call.
  8. mappy
    Slight risk area trimmed back a bit for us. ninja'd
  9. mappy
    SPC going Mod risk up in New England at next update.
  10. mappy
    84/70 IMBY. Swampy.
  11. mappy
    Yup. As I said earlier, if it can drop out of PA earlier rather than later, it will feed off our CAPE and should give us a nice little event.
  12. mappy
    EML looking good too.
  13. mappy
    14z HRRR looking better. 12Z NAM seems to slowed down by an hour compared to 06z... 6-7pm the line drops out of PA.
  14. mappy
    great video! Yup, green is a tell tale sign of updrafts, in this case, lots of hail. rotation was very broad.
  15. mappy
    yeah looks like it doesn't come together until its south of me (boo). but at least it has a decent line forming. I don't know the clear definition, as there seems to be a new proposed one going around too. Discussion seems to be based on that.
  16. mappy
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/
  17. mappy
    lot of fun discussion about it this morning.
  18. mappy
    Id wait until NWS comes out saying so, but perhaps it was.
  19. mappy
    Combo of high EML, and CAPE, should provide enough for storms dropping out of PA to gain strength. Just need them to come through earlier in the evening rather than later. HM on twitter earlier
  20. mappy
    updated day 1 15% wind 15% hail 2% tornado runs along the PA line One source of uncertainty in this scenario is an area of outflow to the south, across parts of VA/MD/Delmarva and eastern PA, originating from yesterday's MCS, and sampled peripherally by the 12Z IAD sounding. Airmass recovery is expected from the southwest, around the northwest rim of that outflow pool and south of the morning convective/frontal baroclinic zone. Expect midday to afternoon preconvective destabilization arising from both theta-e advection and diabatic surface heating. 68-70 F surface dew points, such as forecast by the NAM, may be overdone considering the available recovery trajectories, and the nearest dew points that large are 300-400 nm away over NC, on the other side of the outflow pool. Regardless, a plume of EML air advecting over this region will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, overlying strengthening boundary-layer lapse rates and low/mid-60s F surface dew points. That combination still supports peak MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, amidst strong west-southwesterly mean-wind and deep-shear vectors. Forecast soundings suggest that, despite a nearly unidirectional vertical wind profile, effective-shear magnitudes of 45-55 kt may be realized. Downward momentum transfer from strong flow above 700 mb, into a well-mixed preconvective boundary layer, should offer favorable conditions for severe thunderstorm winds. Given the strong westerly component of the near-surface flow, more-unstable inland air may be shunted eastward to very near the coast across much of the region, extending the severe threat accordingly, before the MCS encounters too much stable marine-layer air and weakens.
  21. mappy
    i mean i guess if you are only looking at the HRRR, sure.
  22. mappy
    9z HRRR is a real snoozer for today. 06z NAM has a line dropping south around 23z-00z
  23. mappy
    Based on radar, I think the initial enhanced zone from 13z outlook should have stayed. But who knows...
  24. mappy
    Fine by me
  25. mappy
    Unless the line grows on it’s northeast side, I won’t see much
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