cheese007
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Posts posted by cheese007
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ENH risk for parts of the Ark/La/Tex mainly a hail/wind risk but a 5% tor was just added for parts of NTX including part of DFW
SPC AC 101631 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 06/10/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1847Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Decent ENH risk setup across western TX. Something to watch anyways as we transition to the summer doldrums
Forecast Discussion SPC AC 020557 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A relatively benign upper pattern will be situated across the CONUS today, characterized by weak upper ridging east of the MS River, with diffuse upper troughing occurring across the western and central CONUS. A broad fetch of adequate low-level moisture between the Rockies and the MS River will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, especially along the High Plains, where surface lee troughing will enhance lift for robust convection. A 500 mb jet streak, associated with a mid-level impulse embedded in the larger-scale upper trough, will overspread the southern High Plains by afternoon, promoting a risk for severe thunderstorms. All severe hazards will be possible, especially across western TX. ...Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned 500 mb jet max overspreads the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, a dryline will sharpen from the CO/KS border to the Trans Pecos region in southwest TX. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F surface dewpoints, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the higher CAPE values likely across western TX. Meanwhile, veering winds with height in the 850-700 mb layer, overspread by the 500 mb jet streak, will contribute to weakly curved but elongated hodographs and corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode, with 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However, the supercells are expected to rapidly congeal into one or more MCSs just a few hours after convective initiation, from eastern CO into western TX. The steeper lapse rates and associated higher amounts of buoyancy across western TX, coinciding with the axis of the 500 mb jet, may promote the development of a longer-lived, mature MCS with embedded bowing features. Several severe gusts are possible, a few of which may reach 65 kts. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/02/2023
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Figured might as well throw up a thread for this because tbh there's not much else happening severe-wise. Mainly hail/wind threat for the southern plains
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Nice little severe warned cell going through Dallas county rn
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Extended out to May 9th for a bunch of hail and wind driven Slight and above risks. ENH for today up in the northern plains
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Updated to include the slight and higher risks through the 8th. Got a wind and hail driven ENH including DFW for today (sig hatched as well)
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Looks like Waco area is getting hit hard with hail again with little of note in DFW
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Looks like another late week hail risk for TX and OK
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Edited topic to reflect today's broad slight risk area and the D2 enahnced risk focused on NTX
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Nasty hook heading into Waco
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Just now, WhirlingWx said:
pretty nice radar structure on the tornado warned storm west of Waco
Tor warned now
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FWD still seems bullish this afternoon/evening
000 FXUS64 KFWD 261720 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Severe Weather Today/ An episode of significant severe weather will materialize this afternoon. North and Central Texas residents should be prepared for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be a heightened flash flooding threat late this afternoon across eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas. A cluster of elevated sub-severe storms continues moving eastward across North Texas, leading to a continued threat for hail and gusty winds along and north of the warm front. The warm front generally resides along the I-20 corridor, evident by the southerly component of the winds south of the front and easterly/northeasterly winds north of the front. Although the front is generally along the I-20 corridor, much of the region continues to experience a fairly good amount of SBCIN in the wake of earlier showers and storms as well as the dense cloud cover in place. As we approach the afternoon, the initial area to watch for rapid thunderstorm development will be along/south of I20 and west of US-281. Visible imagery is depicting partial clearing is ongoing with temperatures approaching 80s degrees. With afternoon heating and MLCAPE expected to exceed 2500 J/Kg, any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing large hail that may approach or exceed baseball size. Given that the storms south of the warm front are likely to be surface based, not only will there be a significant hail threat, but the tornado threat will also increase as the storms move eastward. Surface southeasterly winds veering with height will result in classic right-turning hodographs, with a strong tornado or two not out of the question this afternoon/early evening. Additional convective development is expected along the true front as it moves southward late this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular with a large to very large hail threat continuing. Tornadoes and damaging winds will continue to pose a threat south of the I-20 corridor, generally across southern portions of North Texas and into Central Texas. As the supercells move eastward, the expectation is for upscale growth into a complex of thunderstorms. There will be a transition to mainly a damaging wind threat along with wind-driven large hail. Sufficient 0-3km shear will be in place to mention the potential for quick tornadoes along any north/south oriented segment of the line of storms. As if that wasn`t enough, torrential rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially across eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas. Antecedent conditions will lead to rapid runoff of any precipitation, and with latest HREF PMM depicting isolated areas of 5" of rain, it`s important to remain vigilant of flooded areas this evening and tonight. If you come up on any flooded roads, TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN! The bulk of the convection should be exiting our region by around midnight. In doing so, the threat for severe weather will shift away from the entire region. A few elevated storms cannot be ruled out as far North as North Texas around/after midnight. Although some small hail cannot be ruled out, the overall severe weather threat will remain low. Dry and cooler air will filter in tomorrow, keeping temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s throughout the region. Winds will be out of the northwest generally between 20-25. Thursday night will be fairly cool across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s expected. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/ Update: We`re still looking at an active pattern through at least the first half of the weekend. After a short break from the rain Thursday night, showers and scattered storms will return late Friday afternoon or evening as a cold front moves south into our region. The only significant update made to the current forecast is to highlight the potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening mainly across areas west of I-35 and south of I-20. Latest medium-range guidance shows sufficient moisture return (60s deg F dewpoints) coupled with decent instability and steep lapse rates for at least an isolated severe threat as storms move across Central Texas into Friday night. Specific details will continue to be refined as new data becomes available! The rest of the forecast remains in good shape. Sanchez Previous Discussion: /Thursday through Tuesday/ Any lingering precipitation behind the complex of storms Wednesday night should be quickly exiting the area by Thursday morning as skies will briefly clear out. Thursday should be a nice day overall with highs in the lower 70s, but low level moisture never really gets scoured out behind this system and will begin to spread northward Thursday night. A compact upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas on Friday with surface pressure falls occurring across much of the state along with a cold front racing southward through the Plains. There remains some uncertainty with respect to the location of the surface low and front/dryline by Friday afternoon, but there is some potential for a quick warm sector intrusion into North Texas, coinciding with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe if we do indeed get a warm sector this far north. We`ll continue to monitor this potential, but for now it looks like at least another quick shot of rainfall for the region. This system will quickly move east on Saturday with below normal temperatures expected and perhaps some lingering light post frontal rain. A quick warmup is expected on Sunday with highs back near 80 areawide and this trend will continue into early next week with a generally dry forecast. The pattern will remain active through the middle part of next week with additional storm chances mid to late week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 549 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/ /12z TAFs/ SHRA/VCTS will continue to impact D10 airports for the next 2-3 hours before a lull in convective activity occurs through the rest of the morning. IFR cigs will prevail through midday with uncertain improvement to MVFR through the afternoon time period. Additional scattered convection will become possible in North Texas as early as 18-19z, but will increase in coverage markedly later in the afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. The most likely timing for convective impacts at Metroplex airports is roughly 22-02z, and a few hours later at Waco. All convection during this time period has the potential to be severe with threats for hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. A southeast wind will prevail outside of convective influences, but the cold front will turn winds to the northwest at 10-20 kts following convective activity overnight, and a breezy northwest wind with overcast MVFR will prevail into Thursday. -Stalley
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Latest D1 is concerning for DFW
SPC AC 261248 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, along with very large/destructive hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected over parts of north Texas this afternoon and evening. Very large hail and damaging winds also are expected over parts of central Florida. ...Synopsis... The primary mid/upper-level feature influencing this forecast is a compact cyclone -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern Rockies and centered near SKX. A trough extends from the low southwestward across southeastern AZ, and northeastward to near IML. The 500-mb low should move southeastward across northeastern NM today, then by 00Z, pivot eastward to the TX Panhandle, with through southwestward past ELP. By 12Z, the perturbation should devolve to an open-wave trough with primary vorticity lobe over OK, and trough across west-central/far west TX. A broad area of difluent, somewhat cyclonic flow will spread across the southern Plains to its southeast. Several embedded, convectively induced/ reinforced vorticity maxima will eject eastward across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions ahead of this feature. A continuing fetch of strong upper-level westerlies -- with weak/embedded perturbations -- will overlie the northern Gulf and FL. One such weak shortwave trough is apparent over the north- central/northeastern Gulf, associated with a few thunderstorms southeast of LA. This feature should reach peninsular FL by this evening. At the surface, a quasistationary front was drawn at 11Z across north-central FL and the northern Gulf, becoming a warm front over southeast through central TX, to a low between SWW-LBB. A cold front extended from there southwestward over the lower Pecos Valley. The cold front will shift eastward over central/north TX through the period, while the warm front shifts northward today to near the DFW Metroplex, before being overtaken by convection. The FL frontal segment should remain near its present position. ...North TX and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to occur along and south of the warm front this afternoon, with all severe modes possible. The main concern at first may be large to giant hail, with ideal conditions progged for generation of hailstones above 3 inches in diameter from any sustained supercell(s). As early supercells move east-southeastward to southeastward across the region into greater low-level moisture and weak CINH along/south of the effective warm front, two processes should occur in tandem: 1. Enlargement of low-level hodographs during late afternoon into early evening, 2. Growth in convective coverage, ultimately leading to a line of strong-severe thunderstorms moving southeastward across central and northeast TX. The resulting QLCS this evening will be mainly a damaging-wind threat with potential for significant/65+ kt gusts, but with a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail still possible. While supercells still are present -- and especially along the warm front where low-level shear/vorticity will be maximized -- so will be the potential for tornadoes (some possibly capable of significant/EF2+ damage). Uncertainties remain on mesoscale specifics of boundary position and mode-transition timing, but both giant hail and tornadoes are possible with the boundary potentially lying across some part of the Metroplex. North of the boundary, isolated large hail still may occur from the most vigorous elevated convection across mainly the Red River region into parts of OK/AR. This includes an ongoing, elevated cluster of thunderstorms over northwest TX and southwestern OK, which should move astride the Red River across southern OK and parts of north TX through the day. A corridor of 2500-3500 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE should develop east of the cold front and southwest of the warm front through central TX, narrowing northward. Strong veering of flow with height -- especially near the warm front -- will contribute to 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The largest hodograph sizes and SRH for surface-based, effective-inflow parcels should be along the warm front, but still will favor supercells in the warm sector. Once the modal transition occurs, wind and tornado potential will be maximized near embedded mesocirculations and bow/LEWP features. ...FL Peninsula... Scattered, mainly afternoon to early-evening thunderstorms are expected across central and south FL, offering large hail and isolated damaging to severe gusts. The greatest convective coverage potential and most-favorable environmental parameter space for significantly severe hail appears to be over portions of central/ east-central FL this afternoon, where supercells with significant hail (2+ inches diameter) may occur. Isolated damaging/severe downbursts also may occur, and a tornado is possible with help from storm-scale/boundary processes. Initial foci for convection will be sea-breeze boundaries near the East Coast, and farther inland from the Gulf. With strong surface heating and abundant low-level moisture expected to minimize MLCINH by midday, outflow and differential-heating boundaries also may support storm initiation throughout the afternoon. The coldest midlevel temperatures and steepest low/middle-level lapse rates are expected over central FL, associated with a remnant Mexican EML plume. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2500-3000 J/kg (locally higher). Low-level flow will be weak, keeping hodographs small for the most part. However, flow will veer strongly with height beneath favorable mid/upper winds of the subtropical jet, contributing to 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes. This, along with boundary interactions, will support supercell potential to maximize updraft strength and efficiency of hail production. Hail-growth models applied to forecast soundings indicate potential for hailstones 2-3 inches in diameter, perhaps from multiple storms. The overall convective coverage/intensity should decrease markedly after about 03Z, when outflow coverage is maximized and nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization is underway. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/26/2023
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D1 Slight risk shifted west a good bit, while day 2 has been upgraded to Enhanced centered on the DFW metro
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Edited title to reflect the D3 SLGT for Wednesday
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Tor warning including Tyler, TX
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Another week in April, another severe weather setup, this time across much of the central part of TX. Primarily wind/hail at this juncture
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200900 SPC AC 200900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5... A moist airmass will likely remain over south-central Texas on Sunday, possibly advecting northwestward into west-central Texas on Monday. At upper-levels, a trough is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest early in the week. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across most of the southern Plains, mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in south-central and west-central Texas, along the northern edge of the moist airmass. ...Tuesday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a lead shortwave trough ahead of the upper-level system, is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward into much of the southern High Plains. It appears that moderate instability could develop across much of the moist sector as surface temperatures warm during the day. Moderate deep-layer shear combined with the instability should be favorable for severe storms. Some solutions suggest that a dryline will setup by afternoon across west-central Texas. Thunderstorms would likely form to the east of the dryline and move eastward across the southern Plains. Under that scenario, the greatest severe threat would be in parts of central and north Texas. Large hail and wind damage would be possible, especially if supercells can develop. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Four Corners region on Wednesday, opening up into a trough over the southern Plains on Thursday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector each day as surface temperatures warm. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become sufficiently unstable, uncertainty is substantial concerning the location of the moist sector. A threat area could be added to either Wednesday or Thursday once this becomes more clear. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Shawnee about to take a direct hit from a pretty nasty circulation
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Ryan Pitt has a good size lowering on his stream
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Bigtime tor on Reed's stream
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Got a set of SPC 15% risks lined up for late week. Nothing wild as of yet but something to watch
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21 hours ago, andyhb said:
to the point of John Robinson (WCM of NWS Little Rock at the time) saying that some on the committee developing the EF-scale essentially didn't want houses being rated EF5.
Can you explain this a little more/link to what you're talking about? What's the issue with houses being rated EF-5?
Severe Weather 6-10-23
in Central/Western States
Posted
Story of the season. Hillsboro/Corsicana/Waco triangle gets slammed while DFW stays nice and calm