cheese007
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Posts posted by cheese007
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Got another advace-forecast with a D6 15% including DFW and part of the Austin metro. Something to watch
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SPC highlighting a multi-day severe event running from March 7th through the 9th. 15% contours have already been introduced for D4 into D5 with less certainty re: D6
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 041000 SPC AC 041000 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024
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Ryan Hall saying potential TOG in Inverness/Palatine area
EDIT: Spotter confirmed
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Big D1 ENH stretching from SE TX to the Alabama border with a sigtor hatch to match. Already having a storm ongoing in TX that's been tornado warned for quite some time
SPC AC 111627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1648Z (10:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Tornado Warning TXC021-149-030530- /O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.240203T0452Z-240203T0530Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Bastrop County in south central Texas... Northwestern Fayette County in south central Texas... * Until 1130 PM CST. * At 1052 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Cistern, or 11 miles southwest of Smithville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Bastrop and northwestern Fayette Counties, including the following locations... Plum, Togo, Kovar, Elm Grove, Colony, West Point, Winchester, and Kirtley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2988 9686 2974 9725 2990 9735 3010 9704 3003 9702 3006 9697 TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 240DEG 15KT 2986 9723 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ RUNYEN-
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Per WFAA DFW mamaged 1.3 inches for the event, which is roughly the seasonal average. Not bad at all for a lake effect event here!
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Getting a nice dusting near DFW airport
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7 minutes ago, Powerball said:
Got a line ripping right over the Metroplex.
Not severe thus far, but frequent lightning and loud cracks of thunder.
Yeah it picked up real quick
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Surprised to see a D1 hatched ENH centered on the ArkLaTex this morning. Then I saw it was Broyles and it made more sense.
Still worth watching I guess...
SPC AC 110558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where convective initiation is expected during the mid evening. Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period. As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet, conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms. Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined with low LCL heights and strong low-level shear should be favorable for supercells embedded in the line, and with the more discrete cells that develop ahead of the line. Some forecast soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km across the northern part of the warm sector. Although the large-hail threat should remain isolated, the steep mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a significant-hail threat. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible a few hours after cells initiation, as the storms mature. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 400 m2/s2 in and just north of the Shreveport vicinity. This is also expected to support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. Any supercell that can persist and become dominant may be able to produce a significant tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also likely develop along the line of storms, with the greatest potential located across Ark-La-Tex, where an Enhanced risk has been introduced. ...East Texas/Louisiana... Further south into east Texas and Louisiana, storm coverage is expected to be more isolated from the late evening into the overnight period. In this area, to the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability is not expected to be as strong. Also, lift may not be quite as concentrated. For this reason, supercell development is expected to remain more isolated. Any cell that can become organized and sustained could produce isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. The severe threat should more isolated with southward extent, with only a marginal severe threat expected near in the coastal sections of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/11/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1111Z (5:11AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:
But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.
Yeah FWD seems... skeptical of any precip for DFW
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Tornado Warning TXC113-139-050330- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0066.231005T0242Z-231005T0330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 942 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Ellis County in north central Texas... Southern Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 1030 PM CDT. * At 942 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Midlothian, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Cedar Hill and Midlothian around 950 PM CDT. Waxahachie, Ovilla and Oak Leaf around 955 PM CDT. Glenn Heights and Red Oak around 1000 PM CDT. Ennis around 1015 PM CDT. Palmer around 1020 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ike, Garrett, Trumbull, Pecan Hill, Boyce, Rockett, India and Joe Pool Lake. This includes the following highways... Interstate 35E between mile markers 399 and 414. Interstate 45 between mile markers 251 and 270. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3232 9661 3242 9709 3243 9709 3251 9708 3255 9704 3258 9704 3261 9656 TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 283DEG 25KT 3250 9704 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN $$ Bonnette -
Beautiful supercell on the TX Storm Chaser YouTube live feed
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49 minutes ago, nwohweather said:
That cell west of OKC is wild. Moving in a completely different directionGolf ball hail and 60 mph winds on that thing
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 TXC121-192300- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-230919T2300Z/ Denton TX- 539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY... At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Krum, or 9 miles west of Denton, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Denton, Corinth, Sanger, Krum, Shady Shores, Ponder, Stony, and Bolivar. LAT...LON 3337 9711 3315 9704 3320 9739 3337 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 325DEG 18KT 3323 9729 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Dunn -
Quite the storms heading through Tarrant county atm
Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC251-439-090430- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0496.230909T0353Z-230909T0430Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1053 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Johnson County in north central Texas... South central Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 1130 PM CDT. * At 1052 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowley, moving southeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR AREAS FROM CROWLEY TO BURLESON IN SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Burleson, Crowley, Everman, Keene, Joshua, Alvarado, Rendon, Edgecliff Village, Cross Timber, Edgecliff, Briaroaks, Egan, and Lillian. This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 29 and 44. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3257 9745 3267 9734 3249 9715 3240 9730 TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 325DEG 21KT 3259 9735 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH $$-
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When was the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in CA?
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Finally getting a sub-100 degree high in the forecast for DFW. Tuesday the 15th
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https://www.earthcam.com/usa/pennsylvania/philadelphia/?cam=philly wind starting to pick up
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Bryce Shelton has a pretty good view of the Hagerstown cell
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Huge expansion of the ENH with the latest update
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Oh and here is my album from today's storm chase! That storm tried hard (and has been trying still) to put down a tornado. Lots of spin
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Gotta say I'm a little confused as to why most of northern Dallas county is under a severe tstorm warning, at least from the radar
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Got some shots of the OK mega-cell's tornado-warned southern portion. Will need to upload when home but man was it pretty!
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Heading in the direction of Wichita Falls. Depending on how things shake out may end up doubling back to DFW if the "tail end charlie" ends up down here
Severe Weather 3-13 through 3-16-24
in Central/Western States
Posted
Slight risk added for the 13th as of today, with a large expansion of the risk area + hatching added for the 14th. Below is the discussion for the latter