cheese007
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Posts posted by cheese007
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SPC has highlighted a swath of the plains from TX to NE for D6. May is in full swing!
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall severe potential through Sunday/D5. For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry differences exist amongst the models, the combination of strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells, squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024
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Had at least a brief tor on it per spotter
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Dickson might get round 2
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7 minutes ago, KSWx said:
Yeah, they're already under another warning. This is an absolute worst case scenario. Reports of people trapped with rescue efforts underway and now they've got another potential tor coming through 10 mins later.
About to get tor number 3
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6 minutes ago, KSWx said:
Nasty CC drop on the storm going into Sulphur.
Edit: Sulphur, OK appears to have taken a direct hit; this thing needs a PDS tag.
Might be about to be hit again
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Bryce Shelton and Brett Adair have different angles of a massive wedge that went through Minden
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https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair Stunning shot on Brett's stream
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Just took out the News 6 camera at the airport in Omaha
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https://www.ketv.com/nowcast lowering on the Omaha cell
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Freddy McKinney has a clear-ish shot
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Lucio has the storm that made the wedge. Tor still on the ground https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/null
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HUGE wedge on Vince Waeiti's stream (forum wont let me link it)
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confirmed tor south of West, TX
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ENH expanded southward with sigtor hatching added
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Thursday bumped up to ENH
SPC AC 231831
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...
AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes
will all be possible.
Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead
of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern
High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook
remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather
potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance.
Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle,
with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to
very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be
later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective
initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very
large hail is anticipated with initial development across
west-central/southwest KS as well.
In both of these areas, storms are expected to move
east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening
low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly
favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to
strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment
supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete
mode can be maintained.
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Active few days on the plains starting Thursday. At a glance looks kinda messy for tor potebtial but something to watch
SPC AC 230730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will all
be possible.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take
on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the
central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In
response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the
central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward
toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially
stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front
across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm
front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to
the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern
TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO.
...Southern/central Great Plains...
Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat
uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday
evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the
TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will
potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion
of the central/southern Plains.
The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped
for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from
parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the
effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of
the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region
through the day.
Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to
impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated
supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest
KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large
hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary
initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and
after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells
that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK.
While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due
to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development
is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX
into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent
overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate
buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will
conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection
across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and
tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may
become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though
hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete
or embedded supercells can be maintained.
...NE/WY border region into northeast CO...
Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return
into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the
north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be
possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front
during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared
to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support
an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if
surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime.
..Dean.. 04/23/2024
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230859
SPC AC 230859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A complex but active pattern is expected from D4/Friday through
D6/Sunday, as multiple mid/upper-level shortwave troughs impinge
upon a moist and unstable environment extending from the
southern/central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley.
...D4/Friday - Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move
northeastward from the Great Plains toward the mid/upper MS Valley
on Friday. Most guidance suggests that convection developing late in
the D3/Thursday period will be ongoing Friday morning, potentially
posing an organized severe threat as it moves eastward. The
influence of early convection on warm sector evolution by Friday
afternoon/evening remains uncertain, but in general, moderate
destabilization will be possible along the Pacific front/dryline in
the wake of early convection, with some intensification of early
storms also possible farther east. Details regarding storm mode
remain uncertain at this forecast range, but in general, severe
storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible across a broad region from the eastern
Great Plains into the mid MS Valley.
...D5/Saturday - Central/southern Plains into the Midwest/mid MS
Valley...
The negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant occluding
surface cyclone are forecast to gradually weaken as they move across
the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Depending on timing of the
departing cyclone and magnitude of diurnal destabilization, some
severe-thunderstorm threat could evolve in advance of this system
through the afternoon across parts of WI/IL into MI, but confidence
remains too low to include 15% probabilities for this area.
Meanwhile, another strong shortwave trough is forecast to eject
across parts of the central/southern Plains Saturday afternoon and
evening, accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis across the
central High Plains. Moderate to locally strong instability may
redevelop along/east of the dryline across central/western KS/OK
into north TX, as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthen through
the day. The synoptic pattern depicted by much of the extended-range
guidance is suggestive of an active severe thunderstorm episode
along/ahead of the dryline, though some guidance (notably recent
runs of the ECMWF) suggest potential for early development across
parts of OK/north TX, which could complicate the scenario by late
afternoon/evening. Some severe threat could spread toward parts of
the mid MS Valley late in the period.
...D6/Sunday - ArkLaTex into parts of the Midwest...
Predictability begins to decrease by late in the weekend, though in
general, a mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper Great
Lakes region. A corridor of severe thunderstorm potential is
forecast to extend south-southwestward from the surface low, as a
trailing cold front moves through a moist, unstable, and favorably
sheared environment. A 15% area has been added where confidence is
currently greatest in severe-thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon
and evening.
..Dean.. 04/23/2024
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Tor warned supercell heading towards the Lampasas area
Tornado Warning TXC281-190000- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.240418T2319Z-240419T0000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Lampasas County in central Texas... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 618 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 20 miles northwest of Lampasas, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Lampasas County, including the following locations... Lometa and Nix. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3125 9853 3134 9838 3117 9824 3109 9842 TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 330DEG 10KT 3127 9842 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Dunn -
First tor watch out for the day with 40/20 probs
SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1 to 2 hours across northwest Texas and shift east through early evening. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible initially, with an increasing tornado risk expected during the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west southwest of San Angelo TX to 50 miles northwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman -
Final day of this multi-day event brings an ENH risk with 10% Tor probs covering southeast OH and the edges of surrounding states
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30% contour expanded for D5 with an addition of a 15% contour on D6. Pretty strong wording in the latest discussion text:
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110856 SPC AC 110856 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and evening on Monday... A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8. With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and especially north extent during the evening across the central and southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30 percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a substantial severe weather episode. Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-South. In the wake of this lead system, the shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest may carve out a broad, positive-tilt trough in the West by mid-week. Consensus of guidance suggests that rich low-level moisture over the southern Great Plains will not be scoured by the lead wave. This may yield daily bouts of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Great Plains late in the period and beyond. Predictability for individual day highlights is too low to warrant 15 percent probabilities yet. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024
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D6 30% out extending from the Wichita Fallas area far south-centeal Kansas. SPC has also outlined a huge 15% area covering varying parts of AR/IA/KS/MO/NE/TX
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D1 hatched mod risk with an ongoing tor watch at 70/50 probs covering Baton Rouge and New Orleans
SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A destabilizing airmass across the central Gulf Coast will support an increasing severe thunderstorm and tornado risk this morning into the midday. The tornado risk will likely maximize with any supercells that develop within the warm sector as the marine warm front advances northward. A squall line will move west to east across the area with a risk for damaging gusts and the tornado risk will likely focus with any sustained mesovortex or embedded supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles northwest of Meridian MS to 45 miles west southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith
Severe Weather 5-6-24
in Central/Western States
Posted
What do you mean it's totally correct