cheese007
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Posts posted by cheese007
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Tornado Warning TXC251-439-041130- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.250304T1101Z-250304T1130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 501 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Johnson County in north central Texas... Southern Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 530 AM CST. * At 500 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Crowley, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Burleson, Rendon, Fort Worth, Crowley, and Everman around 505 AM CST. Kennedale around 510 AM CST. Arlington and Mansfield around 515 AM CST. This includes the following highways... Interstate 35W between mile markers 32 and 46. Interstate 20 between mile markers 434 and 450. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3246 9709 3249 9749 3265 9749 3272 9709 TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 269DEG 43KT 3258 9743 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Bonnette -
Surprise D1 ENH for today with 10% tor and tomorrow has had a 10% sigtor hatch added. Updated the thread again to reflect the dates more accurately
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It's that time of year again! Looking like Tuesday may be a big day with the SPC already signaling strong tornado potential
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Looking like we're getting our first shot at severw weather early this year!
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47 minutes ago, yoda said:
Oops
Broken clocks and all that lol
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3 hours ago, yoda said:
SPC goes MOD risk
It's Broyles tho who thinks every setup is the next "big one"
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It sounds like consensus is putting this out of the "worst worst" case scenario (eye passing just north of Tampa bay) if taken verbatim? What kind of difference in surge can TB expect if it's south instead of north?
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18 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:
NHC new track is ever so slightly shifted south, with a landfall between Sarasota and St. Petersburg.
Those little wobbles are gonna make a huge difference for the Tampa bay area
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18 minutes ago, andyhb said:
I don't see 1000 deaths, but I could easily see 200-300 overall, which would make it the deadliest tropical cyclone in the United States aside from Katrina in decades. It already is deadlier in SC than Hugo and is the deadliest in NC likely since the mid-1800s. There are not enough superlatives to describe this event.
And then there's the non-zero possibility of a second storm taking a similar path not too long from now...
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Managed to snag a pic of the Windthorst TX Tornado. Nothing crazy but my first time ever seeing a tornado IRL which was cool
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PDS warning for northern Collin County
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Mean looking storm in Montague county rn
Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 952 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 TXC337-260330- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-240526T0330Z/ Montague TX- 952 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY... At 952 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles northeast of Sunset, or 12 miles east of Bowie, moving east at 40 mph. Forestburg is in the path of this tornado. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Forestburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3345 9772 3354 9776 3363 9749 3344 9749 TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 274DEG 34KT 3351 9763 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Prater -
Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 715 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 TXC037-250030- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-240525T0030Z/ Bowie TX- 715 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BOWIE COUNTY AND NEW BOSTON TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTY... At 714 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over New Boston, moving east at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for New Boston. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Hooks around 720 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3356 9445 3355 9441 3354 9438 3353 9433 3350 9423 3334 9430 3346 9452 TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 291DEG 23KT 3349 9441 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ 13
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Mesoscale Discussion 0918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 295... Valid 240033Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...A dangerous, tornadic supercell is expected to continue slowly moving ESE across Jackson County, and as far south as the Red River over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KFDR indicates VROT has increased to 90-105 kt within an ongoing, confirmed tornado located just west of Olustee, OK (southwest of Altus). The extremely unstable environment downstream of this strong to violent tornado will continue to favor tornadogensis, where SSE sustained surface winds around 20 to 25 kt will enhance localized surface vorticity. ..Barnes.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34429971 34689979 34889951 34709905 34589867 34469859 34189856 34069888 33989911 33999941 34169960 34429971
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Tornado Warning TXC071-291-170045- /O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0035.240517T0021Z-240517T0045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 721 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas... Southeastern Liberty County in southeastern Texas... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 721 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Anahuac, or 9 miles east of Beach City, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Anahuac around 725 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hankamer. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2972 9473 2977 9476 2993 9455 2977 9442 TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 245DEG 37KT 2976 9470 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Cady -
Windows blown out downtown
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Possible TDS in Houston
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Downtown Houston direct hit
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Tornado Warning TXC119-277-092230- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0031.240509T2154Z-240509T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 454 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Delta County in north central Texas... Southeastern Lamar County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 454 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles south of Pattonville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Delta and southeastern Lamar Counties, including the following locations... Clardy, Taylor Town, Milton, Cunningham, Minter, and Deport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3338 9531 3336 9533 3336 9535 3337 9537 3337 9544 3354 9546 3355 9531 TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 262DEG 21KT 3346 9537 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN $$ Bonnette -
D1 Mod and D2 ENH lined up, former with a 10% hatched tor risk
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D2 Mod with a 15% hatched tor risk
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low will consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT into western ND/SD and vicinity, with a secondary surface low forecast to develop over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline and southeastward-moving cold front. A warm front should eventually reach eastward across parts of NE/IA. This warm front should be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential through Monday night. ...Southern/Central Plains... Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells likely to develop across south-central KS and western/central OK late Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening. Accordingly, a Moderate Risk has been introduced for this area. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, will foster moderate to strong instability developing along/east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Peak pre-convective MLCAPE will likely reach 2500-4000 J/kg across much of central KS into western/central OK and northwest TX. Strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells with initial thunderstorm development. Convective initiation appears likely by early Monday afternoon as ascent with the lead shortwave trough overspreads NE/KS. Very large hail will be a threat initially, but most guidance suggests a fairly quick transition to a more linear mode with time Monday afternoon/evening, especially as the cold front overtakes the dryline. An increasing threat for damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations will likely occur as this mode transition occurs, in tandem with strengthening boundary-layer shear associated with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This damaging-wind/tornado threat may continue into the overnight hours into parts of IA/MO, and the Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to account for this potential. Farther south across western OK and south-central KS, more modest large-scale ascent and related mid-level height falls associated with a more westerly mid/upper-level jet will eventually overspread the dryline and warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Although overall convective coverage will likely be lower compared to locations farther north, there should be a better chance for supercell structures to be maintained, as deep-layer shear vectors appear more orthogonal to the initiating boundary (dryline). A southerly low-level jet should strengthen to around 40-45 kt through early Monday evening across this area, greatly enhancing corresponding low-level shear and effective SRH. The best chance for strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and giant hail (3-4 inches) should exist with any supercells that can persist Monday evening in a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. Similar to locations farther north in KS/NE, upscale growth should eventually occur across central/eastern OK. A threat for damaging winds and tornadoes (some potentially strong) should continue Monday night into early Tuesday with eastward extent across the southern Plains given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared environment. ..Gleason.. 05/05/2024
4/2-4/3 Potential Major Severe WX Outbreak
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Broyles...