cheese007

D1 ENH with a 10% sigtor and D2 MOD with a 15% sigtor hatch. D3 has two discrete SLGT areas, one strecthing from KY into far western PA and the other from the FL panhandle into NC

Apparently looking at a three day event over much the same area with all hazards possible 

Looking more and more like Monday in TX will be more noteable for severe potential than eclipse visibility

Ohio Valley under the gun today with a big 15% sigtor hatched risk. D2 also has a slight risk for parts of FL and the mid-Atlantic

SPC AC 020600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly
   including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is anticipated
   this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability centered
   over the Ohio Valley.  Severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf
   Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the
   Carolinas.

   ...Discussion...

   Strong northern-stream upper low, currently located over southern
   MB, is forecast to drop south across MN into northern IL late in the
   period. This evolution is driven in part by a 500mb speed max that
   will translate across the central Plains, increasing to near 100kt
   over eastern KS/OK by 03/12z. Intense 12hr midlevel height falls are
   forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the
   northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected
   during the latter half of the period. Synoptic front that is
   currently draped across the OH Valley will be encouraged to
   gradually advance north due to the digging trough; however, an
   extensive corridor of convection currently extends across the MS
   Valley into the OH valley, which is maintaining cool boundary-layer
   conditions north of I-70.

   Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a southern-stream short-wave
   trough is progressing across eastern KS/eastern OK. This feature
   will progress downstream and likely aid early-day thunderstorm
   development near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Seasonally high
   PW airmass currently extends across northern AR/southern MO into
   southern IL. NAM forecast sounding for JBR at 15z exhibits 60kt
   surface-6km bulk shear with SBCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg.
   Discrete supercells may evolve ahead of this feature then
   spread/develop northeast across southern IN/KY into OH. Some
   uncertainty exists across northern OH/IN regarding destabilization.
   It's not entirely clear if ongoing convection will allow the warm
   front to lift appreciably north of its current position. However,
   large-scale pattern is quite dynamic and favors surface low
   deepening over southern Lake MI during the latter half of the
   pattern. NAM struggles to reflect this scenario, thus weaker
   instability is forecast at higher latitudes. Tornadoes, damaging
   winds, and large hail are expected with supercells that evolve
   across the warm sector. Some tornadoes may be long-lived and strong.


   Farther south, a bimodal severe threat may ultimately evolve with a
   secondary corridor of more concentrated severe across portions of
   the northern Gulf States. 500mb speed max is forecast to eject
   across northern Mexico into TX by 03/00z. This feature will
   intensify as it translates across LA into eastern TN by the end of
   the period. There is some concern that severe probabilities may need
   to be increased across this region to account for this low-latitude
   speed max during the evening/overnight hours. Strong shear will
   support supercells along with a threat for tornadoes, damaging
   winds, and hail.

   ..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/02/2024

Slight added for D1 with D2 and D3 sitting at ENH as of this morning. D2 adds a sigtor countour for much of southern MO into IL 

Monday got part of the risk area bumped to 30% in the D4, primary threat being hail but tornadoes and strong winds also likely

Another early week system with a big D5 15% and a D6 15% for outside this subforum.

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280900
   SPC AC 280900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Sunday: Mid Mississippi Valley into the Central/Southern
   Plains...
   The upper trough/low over the western states should slowly advance
   eastward towards the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on
   Sunday. Upper ridging is forecast to remain over the central/
   southern Plains through Sunday night, which in tandem with a
   low-level temperature inversion should tend to suppress most
   convection. One possible exception may be along a sharpening warm
   front across MO/IL, where some guidance suggests elevated convection
   may form either Sunday morning, and/or Sunday night with strong
   low-level warm advection/lift occurring. Steepening mid-level lapse
   rates are forecast to overspread the mid MS Valley from the
   southwest through the period. These lapse rates, along with
   increasing moisture/instability in the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear, may support a risk for isolated supercells with associated
   threat for large hail. Regardless, confidence remains too low in
   this mainly elevated convection occurring, given upper ridging
   persisting, to add a 15% severe area for Sunday along/near the warm
   front in MO/IL at this time.

   ...Day 5/Monday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys...
   Even though some differences remain in medium-range guidance
   regarding the ejection of an upper trough over the central CONUS on
   Monday, confidence has increased in the general location of relevant
   surface features, including the primary low, position of a
   southward-extending dryline, and northward extent of the warm front
   into the OH Valley. Even though the overall upper trough orientation
   may remain somewhat positively tilted, most deterministic guidance
   shows that a mid-level speed max and associated shortwave trough
   will eject northeastward over the southern/central Plains through
   Monday evening. Low-level mass response should encourage the
   eastward development of a surface low to the OK/KS vicinity in a
   similar time frame. Favorable low-level trajectories emanating from
   the Gulf will act to increase low-level moisture in tandem with
   steepening mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating across a broad
   warm sector extending from the southern/central Plains into the
   lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley.

   A favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment for organized
   severe convection will exist across much of these regions, with
   supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes possible
   initially. With time Monday evening/night, some upscale growth seems
   probable across the mid MS and OH Valleys, as mid-level flow should
   become increasingly parallel to a surface cold front. Therefore, a
   15% severe area has been introduced for Monday where confidence is
   greatest that robust convection will develop in a parameter space
   characterized by weak/moderate instability and strong deep-layer
   shear. A nocturnal minimum in severe convective potential may be
   realized Monday night into early Tuesday morning across parts of the
   lower MS Valley into Mid-South, given the positively tilted nature
   of the upper trough.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday: Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians...
   Some severe threat should continue Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN
   Valleys into the Appalachians as the upper trough continues
   eastward. Even though there is still some uncertainty with the exact
   placement of the primary surface low and evolution of the upper
   trough, enough confidence exists in a fairly narrow corridor across
   these regions to add a 15% severe area for Tuesday. Rich low-level
   moisture should be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
   Redevelopment and/or re-intensification of convection seems probable
   by Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and weak instability
   should be sufficient for organized severe convection posing some
   threat for damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast
   strength of a low-level jet focused over parts of the OH/TN Valleys.
   The northward extent of the severe risk across OH and vicinity
   remains uncertain, as the placement of the warm front varies in
   model guidance. Similarly, convection should eventually encounter a
   less unstable airmass across the Appalachians. But, an isolated
   severe risk may continue Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
   morning across the southern/central Appalachians into portions of
   the Southeast.

   ...Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday...
   Predictability remains too low to include a 15% severe delineation
   for Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast along/ahead of a
   cold front. By this extended time frame, there are significant
   differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of the upper
   trough, including its possible interaction/merging with a
   northern-stream trough, and placement of relevant surface features.
   Still, at least an isolated severe risk may persist Wednesday
   along/ahead of the eastward-sweeping cold front. Once this front
   clears the East Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the
   CONUS next Thursday.

   ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

D2 ENH with Sigtor hatch

SPC AC 241723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging
   winds are possible Monday through Monday night from parts of east
   Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central
   CONUS early Monday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be
   embedded within this large parent upper troughing, including one
   over the Mid MO Valley and another over the southern High Plains. 
   The northern shortwave is forecast to continue northward through the
   Upper MS Valley while the southern shortwave moves quickly
   northeastward across eastern OK/northeast TX and into the Mid MS
   Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves, in particularly the southern
   High Plains shortwave, will induce a more negative tilt to the
   parent upper trough as the entire system gradually shifts eastward.

   The surface pattern early Monday morning will be complicated by an
   ongoing convective line across TX, but the general expectation is
   for a low to be over central KS with the primary cold front
   extending southwest from this low across the TX Panhandle into
   northeast NM. A secondary cold front/dry line will also extend
   southward from this low across central OK and north TX into the TX
   Hill Country. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along
   an outflow boundary preceding this secondary cold front/dry line
   from southwest MO through western AR and northeast TX. The cold
   fronts and convective line are all forecast to progress eastward
   throughout the day, with some intensification of the convective line
   possible as it interacts with the greater low-level moisture over
   the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development is also expected
   farther north across western IA as the primary surface low moves
   through during the afternoon.

   ...Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley...
   Favorable low-level moisture will exist ahead on the convective line
   expected to be ongoing early Monday from southwest MO through
   northeast TX, contributing to modest buoyancy despite widespread
   cloud cover and relatively cool surface temperatures. Generally
   modest convection will likely be ongoing within this line early
   Monday, but the expectation is for the line to reintensify during
   the early afternoon as large-scale forcing increases, the cold front
   catches up to the line, and buoyancy reaches its diurnal max. This
   reintensification will likely begin near the TX/LA border, with
   storms reaching their maximum intensity across far southeast AR,
   eastern LA, and western MS.

   Very impressive wind fields are anticipated across the region, with
   southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line contributing to large,
   looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, very strong
   southwesterly mid-level flow will support a southwesterly deep-layer
   shear vector with a notable line-perpendicular orientation.
   Consequently, there is likely a risk for a robust, forward
   propagating line capable of both strong gusts and embedded QLCS
   tornadoes. Also, given that the line is expected to be fairly weak
   at the beginning of the period, there is some chance for more
   discrete updrafts as the reintensification of the line begins,
   particularly with southern extent. The airmass will become less
   unstable with eastward extent into AL, and the expectation is for
   the overall intensity of the line to weaken as it moves into AL
   overnight.

    ...Western Iowa/Far Northwest MO and Vicinity...
   Within the larger-scale upper trough over the central states, an
   embedded, cold-core mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly
   northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Most guidance still
   shows low 50s surface dewpoints present near a deep surface low
   across western IA and vicinity Monday afternoon. Given the cold
   mid-level temperatures, only modest daytime heating is needed for
   airmass destabilization. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for
   a few organized thunderstorms and isolated/marginally severe hail
   and strong/gusty winds may occur with any sustained low-topped
   convection.

   ..Mosier.. 03/24/2024

D5 15% contour added covering much of AR/LA/MS as well as the MO bootheel, far western TN, and a smidge of east TX

SPC has put out a D5 15% contour with hints at more unsettled weather in the following days

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200900
   SPC AC 200900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models suggest that blocking centered over the
   northeastern Pacific will break down this weekend, as a more
   progressive regime shifts across the central into eastern
   mid-latitude Pacific, and gradually inland through much of the U.S.
   by the middle to latter portion of next week.  Initially, flow
   downstream of the weakening blocking may undergo amplification,
   including mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic
   Seaboard, and larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing inland of
   the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi
   Valley through early next week.  

   Within the inland advancing troughing, there appears reasonable
   agreement between the ECENS/ECMWF, GEFS and GFS model output that a
   significant lead short wave perturbation will accelerate
   northeastward out of the Southwest across the southern Rockies late
   Sunday into Sunday night.  As this occurs, a rather deep cyclone is
   forecast to continue to form to the lee of the Front Range during
   the day, before migrating southeastward then eastward into the
   adjacent high plains.  Although it still appears that low-level
   moisture return in the wake of prior low-level drying and cooling
   across the northern Gulf Basin may still be on the margins for
   vigorous thunderstorms, the development of steep
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may compensate.  Coupled with
   potentially intense wind fields and strong forcing for ascent,
   organized severe thunderstorm development seems probable late Sunday
   afternoon into Sunday night.  This may include supercells initially,
   then an evolving narrow squall line.

   Into the early through middle portion of next week, uncertainties
   concerning a subsequent short wave emerging from the Southwest
   increase.  However, it appears probable that there will be at least
   narrow corridors of strong to severe thunderstorm development on
   following days across the southeastern Great Plains into lower
   Mississippi Valley and perhaps parts of the Southeast.

   ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

23 hours ago, Sydney Claridge said:

We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though.

This storm ended up dropping a brief EF-0 over the UNT Frisco parking lot

Frisco tor confirmed

Hail-driven ENH added to the D1 

50/30 tor probs

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 42
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central/eastern Oklahoma
     North-central Texas

   * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
     600 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will continue to increase in
   coverage and intensity through the afternoon, while posing a threat
   for very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK to
   65 miles southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Gleason/Goss

D1 sigtor added

10% tor added for D1 and a slight risk added for Austin/San Antonio area for D2

Vince Waelti on YouTube seems to have a good angle 

ENH added for D1 around KC but no sig-tor hatching as of 8AM

Slight risk added for the 13th as of today, with a large expansion of the risk area + hatching added for the 14th. Below is the discussion for the latter

SPC AC 120731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from
   the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and
   the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity
   early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward
   from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill
   Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of
   this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and
   Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous
   days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the
   vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the
   surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be
   free from any early period storms.

   This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day
   with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one
   near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central
   IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and
   AR.

   ...Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL...
   Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout
   the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture,
   moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the
   afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported
   by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse
   rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front
   will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind
   profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms
   to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in
   the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity.
   Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards,
   including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. 

   ...Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR...
   Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly
   unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with
   convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and
   northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear,
   initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all
   severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection
   evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain,
   with some potential for development into more linear structures
   given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale
   growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push
   eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts.

   ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024

Got another advace-forecast with a D6 15% including DFW and part of the Austin metro. Something to watch

SPC highlighting a multi-day severe event running from March 7th through the 9th. 15% contours have already been introduced for D4 into D5 with less certainty re: D6

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 041000
   SPC AC 041000

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the
   latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day
   4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX
   into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday
   night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is
   forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the
   southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the
   ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE
   will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into
   east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening
   low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a
   threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support
   elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become
   near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS
   Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s.

   The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a
   15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS
   Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still
   some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper
   trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there
   is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland
   across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection
   ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late
   Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from
   both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will
   support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging
   winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing
   line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging
   winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far
   inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly
   across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the
   northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at
   least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable.

   Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the
   Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows
   substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this
   extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace
   the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC
   will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in
   later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too
   low at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024

Ryan Hall saying potential TOG in Inverness/Palatine area

EDIT: Spotter confirmed

Big D1 ENH stretching from SE TX to the Alabama border with a sigtor hatch to match. Already having a storm ongoing in TX that's been tornado warned for quite some time

SPC AC 111627

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to
   the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected
   through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana
   and Mississippi.  More isolated severe storms will be possible into
   Alabama and western Georgia.

   ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over
   TX/OK through tonight.  Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected
   today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave
   cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. 
   Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through
   midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper
   midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging
   winds possible.  The primary severe threat should evolve from the
   ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm
   development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into
   LA/MS.

   A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and
   temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and
   south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern
   LA/MS.  The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm
   front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through
   tonight as far east as MS/AL.  The steep midlevel lapse rates
   (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will
   favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the
   more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and
   by this evening into central MS.  Low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some
   potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor.

   ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1648Z (10:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Tornado Warning
TXC021-149-030530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.240203T0452Z-240203T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1052 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Bastrop County in south central Texas...
  Northwestern Fayette County in south central Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CST.

* At 1052 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Cistern, or 11 miles southwest of
  Smithville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southeastern Bastrop and northwestern Fayette Counties, including
  the following locations... Plum, Togo, Kovar, Elm Grove, Colony,
  West Point, Winchester, and Kirtley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2988 9686 2974 9725 2990 9735 3010 9704
      3003 9702 3006 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 240DEG 15KT 2986 9723

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

RUNYEN

Per WFAA DFW mamaged 1.3 inches for the event, which is roughly the seasonal average. Not bad at all for a lake effect event here!