cheese007

Mesoscale Discussion 0407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Areas affected...southeast TX...southern and central LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 191903Z - 192000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed before the expiration of tornado watch #120 at 3pm CDT for much of central and southern LA. A local extension-in-time can be utilized for the area near Galveston Bay for existing tornado watch #120. DISCUSSION...The risk for severe thunderstorms will likely continue over the Sabine River Valley through the afternoon. The airmass has destabilized over southern LA according to the 18z Lake Charles sounding. A notable weakness in the flow, evident around 600mb, will likely lessen with time as the mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains continues to approach the northwest Gulf Coast. Additional storm activity is expected over LA later this afternoon with hail/wind the expected hazards with the stronger storms. The more intense/persistent low-level mesocyclones will be associated with a conditional risk for tornadoes. The 17z RAP forecast soundings indicate the most favorable combination of enlarged hodographs and instability will focus during the late afternoon through the early evening. ..Smith/Hart.. 04/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30819446 31229415 31999306 32229206 31309205 30969170 30959070 29369118 29629379 30089429 30819446

D2 enhanced up for the Carolinas. Looks like another multi-day event

Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 Areas affected...upper coast of TX...southwest LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 120... Valid 191739Z - 191845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues. SUMMARY...Convective trends towards a supercellular convective mode are increasing as 700mb flow intensifies this afternoon. Large to very large hail is possible with the mature supercells. A tornado risk will probably accompany the stronger/more persistent low-level mesocyclones. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery trends over the past hour are showing warm sector development of storms acquiring some intermittent rotation north of the greater Houston area. A robust supercell has also recently developed to the north of Matagorda Bay moving towards the south side of the Houston metro during the next few hours. The boundary layer across the upper coast of TX continues to destabilize as temperatures warm through the 70s and into the lower 80s near Galveston Bay. As storms continue to gradually intensify during the early afternoon, coincident with the aforementioned strengthening flow in the low to mid levels, the risk for a tornado and large to very large hail will correspondingly increase with the strongest storms. Short-term model guidance is suggesting at least some severe activity will move across the Galveston Bay vicinity and into southwest LA and the near-shore waters during the next 2-4 hours. ..Smith.. 04/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29209642 30889521 31379385 31239319 30769295 30039322 28549565 29209642

Wonder what it looks like in those high rises?

Might see some half dollar hail in Dallas, TX in a bit

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Broyles famous for being... "generous" with his risk forecasts?

Considering how prolific Sunday ended up being, that says a lot

Over 120 confirmed tornadoes. Pretty incredible considering it was "only" a mod risk

108 confirmed tornadoes and counting. If this had happened last decade it would be in the top 10 largest outbreaks. Pretty incredible for "only" a mod risk

Some folks have no self preservation instinct it seems

"It's OK we're in the RFD" followed by something slamming into their vehicle makes me wonder about their chasing abilities...

Orangeberg might be next under the gun. Pop of over 10k. Roughly 10 or so warnings out right now. Just awful

Lotta warnings on the line atm. Hard to keep track of it all

There's a big development on the NW side of Wiliston that may be in big trouble...

With a large metro area in it to boot EDIT: Tor warned storm heading into Trion, GA. Again

Another tor warned storm looking to cross the AL/GA border

Alarming considering it's not even in the watch area and headed for some populated locals

43 tor reports so far today. No 4/27/11 but certainly not where I thought we would end up given the early lack of activity

From the TN valley thread: confirmed TOG in Polk County, TN ..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL POLK COUNTY... At 1013 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Benton, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Archville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Cell just went tor warned in southern Alabama. Worth watching given the environment...

Fortunately there's not a whole lot between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham on the track it's on. If it gets to Birmingham however...

FWIW here's a tower cam from Dalton, GA: https://newschannel9.com/weather/cameras/the-landmark-building-dalton-ga

Would be first EF5 since the Moore, OK tornado of 2013. Feels like that was another century...

Only one active tornado warning at the moment, which is wild...

That one cell in northern Alabama just keeps on trucking, about to head into the watch area in GA