osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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Curious about that as well. Most models now show snow through noon or 1 pm and heavy snow at that, but it's not looking good at the moment.
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Uh oh, lots of sleet mixing in with the snow now.
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Weird map. An inch more in DC than Baltimore and only an inch less than Westminster? I think most of the metro area is going to see 2-4 at this rate.
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It should be coming your way. I changed over to all snow about 20 minutes ago and it's really ripping now.
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And it's now all fatties!
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Roads caving here. Even a main road like Route 1 caving. But still a snow/sleet mix with varying intensities. I want the heavy snow band!
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Sleet here in Lansdowne. Parking garage is icy. Guessing snow arrives in about a half hour. Let’s go!!!
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GFS is still on the warm side, but it's becoming the outlier and has improved a tiny bit. Hug the HRRR!
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HRRR is really hit and miss. Sometimes it really nails a storm and picks up on things no other model does and sometimes it’s totally out to lunch. Hopefully, it’s the former as trends tonight seem a bit interesting. Great day for the Orioles and maybe a great day for us snow lovers coming up as well!
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Ukie and Euro continue to cut totals run after run over the past couple of days. Just a slow bleed, but the small cuts are adding up. You can see where this is heading. I'll still gladly take an hour or two of snow and a coating if I can manage it.
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Thanks, did not know that's the way that's computed on the model. I was just looking at the precip panels and seeing how little time it was potentially snowing or sleeting over us and didn't see how it could possibly add up to that, but that makes sense. And obviously the 10:1 ratio throws it off as well.
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LOL, I don't even see how that's possible based on just the precip panels. It only possibly snows/sleets in Baltimore, for example, for a max of six hours and probably much less than that, yet it shows 9 inches. But yes, 1/4 of that would be pretty historic and quite exciting.
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New GFS doesn't look as good now, either. You can't really tell what happens between 18 and 24 though. I'm guessing it's a short period of snow and sleet.
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The model that is being decommissioned you mean? For the model that hands out snow like Oprah hands out gifts!
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12k looked amazing. Unfortunately it's not nearly as reliable as 3k, and that seemed pretty sleety to rain with very little snow. I do agree with the poster that said the Ferrier and Snow Depth maps also aren't very reliable. They are probably closer to reality in these setups than the 10:1 maps, but they are usually pretty underdone in my experience.
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Ha, the emotional swings from model run to model run on here and it's only a pitty little winter event in mid-November! Can you imagine if we get to late January with very little snow to date?
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Not that surprising. The Euro has been a joke with snowstorms for our area since the upgrade. It was laughably bad with the late-season snowstorm last year. It seems to run too cold and count way too much ice as snow. It's no longer the King.
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I'm also hoping that this thing slides in a couple hours earlier than expected, which could help. It seems models keep pushing up the arrival of precip, and these types of storms often beat that arrival time anyway.
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I thought Ava's map was pretty realistic. Coating to two for most, with the favored areas getting 2-4.
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Hug the NAMs. They look good. Although 3K looks the worst and it's the most accurate so..........
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I wish It will proabably be a toned down version since it's three weeks earlier, but I think there could be a band that comes in and drops some good snow for 2-3 hours before the sleet begins. It'll probably be a little less snow for most and then less sleet and more rain than December 8, 2013.
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This reminds me a lot of December 8, 2013.
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Just seeing some flakes falling and covering the grass would be awesome. Great way to kick off the season very early. Usually, I'm just praying for seeing A FLAKE this time of the year. I usually look at November 15-20 or so as the time of year I start looking for flurries or a snow shower.
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Euro, if real, looks terrific. 3-6 inches across the metro area. We take and sprint.
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Makes sense. Coming to its senses as we get closer to gametime and trending toward the more realistic model solutions. Guessing we will see Euro trend a bit northwest as well.
