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osfan24

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Everything posted by osfan24

  1. osfan24
    Had some decent thunder and lightning but tonight doesn't seem like anything more than a quick line of storms. Not seeing a flooding threat until the weekend.
  2. osfan24
    HRRR and NAM certainly are not very interesting for today or tomorrow. Looks like Saturday or more likely Sunday is when we get pretty much all the rain.
  3. osfan24
    What do I have to do to get this in January?
  4. osfan24
    Yeah the NAM and GFS are both hinting at that, especially Saturday, though obviously out of NAMs range.
  5. osfan24
    I'm sure it was somewhat of a factor or exacerbated the situation, but the bottom line is they had a very intense, long-duration event and the topography of the area literally checks all boxes in terms of what you would look for when it comes to a town and flash flooding. It is basically built in a valley surrounded on all sides by steep hills, is a narrow street lined with buildings, sits next to a major river and is also built on top of a river. It's essentially sitting in the bottom of a bucket or bowl. Fill up cups of water and dump them into a bowl from all sides and watch what happens. The other evidence that this is almost entirely topography driven is that nearby Catonsville received even more rain than Ellicott City. While there was some flooding, it was not the catastrophic damage we saw on Main Street. Catonsville is more developed than Ellicott City, but it doesn't have buildings that sit near the Patapsco, nor is it built on top of a river.
  6. osfan24
    Still think it's the derecho because of the region-wide impact, but if you combine the two flash flood events, consider the devastation to Ellicott City twice, the loss of life, and also consider this time impacted areas of Catonsville through the city to the east side, it has to be considered. It was certainly the most impactful with regard to the economy, but again, the number of people impacted is very small. Unless you live in that narrow stripe that was trained over, you hardly got any rain. I know it was just a deluge just several miles northwest of me and I got very little rain and some distant thunder.
  7. osfan24
    Frankly, the image showing development above Main Street Ellicott City is not all that crazy to me. There isn't really that much development there to blame this on that. I'm sure it played a small part in exacerbating things, but anytime you have a narrow mill town at the bottom of a hill with a major river running both under and through it and you get insane rainfall rates for a few hours, this is what happens. Catonsville is more developed than Ellicott City, and while there were flood issues there, nothing destroyed the town because the river doesn't run near the developed areas and the town isn't located at the bottom of a steep hill.
  8. osfan24
    Oh got it. I took it as there was more rain coming. Yeah that's going to take some time.
  9. osfan24
    Definitely a rare event but how are we still in the middle of it? It's over.
  10. osfan24
    Looks like Frederick is getting pounded again.
  11. osfan24
    Seems like the northern folks managed best with both the severe/t-storm part and the rain. Down here, we had some lightning and thunder off and on for an hour or two but nothing crazy. Also had heavy rain for a period, but again, it was a couple hours and not consistently heavy. What's the setup looking the remainder of the week? What a mess the infield will be at Preakness!
  12. osfan24
    It's had problems with both tornado signatures and indicating hail where there isn't even anything on radar today. Looks like most of the line is losing strength. Lightning fading as well as hail. That said, Frederick is getting a crazy storm. Good thing it's not over Ellicott City!
  13. osfan24
    I wonder if this line doesn't start to weaken soon and eventually becomes the focus of the heavy rain rather than severe weather.
  14. osfan24
    Line to north is definitely strengthening and extending/redeveloping farther to the west. A large part of Baltimore metro should get hit.
  15. osfan24
    It looks like the line to the north is starting to extend west, and the stuff to the south is starting to move a bit closer and blossom a bit.
  16. osfan24
    Is the excessive rainfall prediction for today now out the window?
  17. osfan24
    Got realllyyyy dark here and had some wind and then it suddenly got brighter and had a few minutes of rain. Weird. No lightning and just a few low rumbles of thunder.
  18. osfan24
    It's gotten pitch black here. Very eerie.
  19. osfan24
    Derecho or Ellicott City flooding, with the February 15 cold for honorable mention. All the tropical storms/Sandy were duds at my house. There was some wind, but it wasn't anything I don't see from strong fall/winter cold fronts and the rain wasn't prolific. Isabel and Floyd are the two tropical systems that register on my list. Isabel forced me to leave UMCP for a couple days because my power was out and it did some major damage along coastal areas. Floyd got me two days off of school and put down a ton of trees.
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