osfan24

I think sitting in this position is fine if the trajectory is going to get it to climb the coast. The problem is this looks more like a west-east system and a southern slider type, so I'm not sure we will see the north adjustment at the last minute.

That's what I'm seeing as well.

Oh that's why it's running poorly? I didn't realize the shutdown had lasted a decade.

Going to need some fun fantasy storms to distract me from the calamity currently happening at M&T Bank.

I agree with this. Everyone always posts those stupid maps and then we get no snow. They are worthless.

That would be a disaster. I'd rather get nothing. Good thing it's not accurate.

It would absolutely be epic. Would it be wall-to-wall winter? No, but how many of those have we had. 2013-2014 is the only one I remember. It was a great winter, but I'd still like 2009-2010 over it, and maybe 1995-1996.

I'm sitting at about a 3-4 out of 10 on the panic meter. January 10-15 will be when I start to freak out if things aren't improving. We hoped it would be earlier, but January 20-25 and on is when we were hoping for a solid 4-6 weeks of winter and that's still very possible. Remember, 2009-2010 was a total dud until the very end of January if you ignore the December 19 storm, and we could have easily hit in early December this year but just missed.

Just have to be patient. If we get to January 15 and things still look bleak, then it becomes time to be concerned. Had we hit on that storm in December, we would be talking about a 2009-2010 redux. Might be time for some to either step away for a couple of weeks or stop investing so much in each run. Unless it's a real fluke, nothing of significance is happening for a few weeks. Is what it is. Let's just hope we make up for it and January 20-March 10 is rocking.

Weeklies look great! Everything still going according to plan!

Are we talking Bruce Springsteen or Barry Manilow?

Let's just do that one again. And bring back Paul Kocin to discuss it on TWC.

We all got spoiled by the heater we were on from 2009-2016. Even in a horrible year in 2016, we had an epic snowstorm. We had two winters in there where it was really cold and we kept getting hit by storms. We had our most epic snow season ever in there where we had three huge storms. 2010-2011 also had that fun bowling ball where went from rain to concrete and it snowed like 8 inches over a 3-4 hour period. And the 2014 storm around Valentines Day was also good, though much better for you than city area folks. That was an epic snowstorm for many northwest folks even if it was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the immediate metro. And now we've had two straight crappy winters. I know we ended up around climo last year, but how we got there sucked. We nickeled and dimed our way there, and a bunch of those smaller events didn't even stick on roads and wasn't even really enough to build a snowman or go sledding. I'll admit I'm even a bit anxious just to see a moderate storm where we get 8-10 hours of moderate snowfall and a nice 3-6/4-8 with lots of road stickage.

I feel your pain and we all want snow, and lots of it, but patience young grasshopper. Like the most knowledgeable posters, and many mets have mentioned, this winter is going almost exactly the way many of our best winters have gone in the past. It looks like we may be setting ourselves up for an epic pattern in our best climo. You just have to hang in there and be patient. Enjoy the holidays, and by the time you return, the pattern should at least be not horrible so that some threats may start showing up, and by then, we should get a better idea if/when/how the really good pattern is going to show.

Hearing Paul Kocin's raspy voice on The Weather Channel is a memory engrained in me from when I was a kid. I miss seeing him. When you saw him on TV, you knew it was going down.

This would have been a heck of a winter storm for our area. Swing and miss on two big storms now. Hope we can make up for it during our prime snow season.

No doubt bad luck played a role (that storm hits and we are talking 2009-2010 again), but that's all part of the game.

It's not a disaster because it's December, but it IS disappointing to have temps so much colder than average in the wettest year ever and have nothing to show for it, especially when there was a lot of hype in November about the early December pattern.

That's crazy. January 25, 2000 is the last time I can remember getting hit by a big surprise snowstorm. There's been some smaller to moderate events but nothing that big. What a great surprise!

Not all that worried, though hate wasting opportunities. More just in awe of how a storm, especially this early in the year, loaded with moisture doesn't want to climb at all.

Amazing watching that huge slug of moisture look like it's already hitting a brick wall across the south.

Wow, it would not take much over the next 24 hours to put Nova and even DC into some good snow. Still probably not much north of that, but maybe some flakes or light snow.

PSU nailed this. We had those few days where the heaviest axis shifted south instead of staying put, and now the expected north trend isn't likely to be enough to put us in the game. DC and south it could make a difference though, in some cases a big difference. Hope it pans out for all of you.

I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.

Not the same kind of storm or setup, but this reminds me of the one last year that was starting way down in like Miami and we tried to will west. In the end, it did keep trending a little more west and I think it slammed coastal areas but we got nada. This feels similar. Continues small ticks north, but only just enough to bring in the cirrus.