osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign.
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Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.
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It is ironic how we thought that area to our north was so problematic a few days ago, but had we just kept that look combined with the other improvements, we would have been in solid shape.
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Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.
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It's inching north, but at this rate, it would take until December 15th for it to get any good stuff up to us. We don't have that much time.
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Yeah storms this early in the year seem to always want to push north. Crazy this one is going to stay so far south. The good news is it's December 6 and the pattern looks loaded for the winter.
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Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point.
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You have to wonder if the other models are leading the way now trying to get to solution number two and the GFS brothers are playing catch-up.
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Sorry folks, my bad. It was the 18z run from yesterday. I see that it's still stuck on 144. Don't know why they can't just get it to run in a timely manner. Anyway, feel free to beat me with a stick until we get some more positive news on this storm.
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FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run.
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I am irrationally angry it won't get out to 150 so I can see the additional inch we get.
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A phase is great if the timing and location is right. Otherwise, it can be a swing and a miss. A lot of our misses and Boston hits are late-phasers.
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If we can get a December 2009 scenario, I'm sure that would be more than fine with all of us. The Euro was upgraded since then and it isn't quite as reliable as it used to be for our weather, so that's a bit of a concern to me.
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Yeah this is what I'd rather see, too. FV3 is perfect right now. Heaviest axis just a tiny bit south of us. You know that would end up a bit farther north, and we get buried with 18-24.
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I like that there are now two ways this can work and we can get a big storm, but I don't like how it complicates things and that we could end up with an in-between solution and miss out entirely.
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Seems to me we have the CMC, Ukie and Euro on one side and the FV3 and GFS on the other at the moment, at least in terms of evolution.
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Just have the new and improved GFS do the usual small north adjustment from here till the storm comes and that would be very nice.
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I could be wrong, but I thought the CMC was trying to do that in its 12z run.
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Looks like FV3 is rolling again, until we get to 90 of course.
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GFS wasn't a total disaster. Let's hope its more well-liked sibling shows up with the goods again. The concern for me about the CMC is it was a significant step back. Definitely more south and east, and I generally expect the CMC, especially in the medium-to-long-range, to be overly amped.
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The most consistent model so far with this storm is basically right where we all want it.
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This looks great but we potentially have a HECS staring us right in the face six days from now.
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Love where we are sitting after the 18z run. I definitely don't want this any farther north right now.
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That looks really promising.
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Retreating high and first third of December seems like a concerning combo.
