osfan24

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours!

I think I’d find a way to survive, lol, but yeah, I remember that year being exhausting. I also think the period from like mid January through early February in 2010 was tiring as well. But I’d be cool running that back!

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think this would have snowed in 1873 with this antecedent airmass

I think his point is the air mass wouldn’t have been that torched in the past during late January, especially when it was very cold a week prior.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way. 

If we can get to it by Feb 10, I guess that gives us 4-5 weeks to make things happen. But will it be like what happened in January where it then took weeks to get the cold necessary to actually snow? We need the pattern to set in quickly because, on top of the need for cold, we also usually need a few chances before we actually connect. We usually score on the backend of the good pattern, not at the start or even that much in the middle.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I threw an edit in my last post. I dont want to come off like I'm canceling anything because I'm most certainly not. And I strongly believe winter will make a return. But man there were some high expectations going into this one. It would be a let down for me if @WxUSAFs guess happens and half the forum walks away sour lol. His guess is basically identical to what I'm thinking and I'd be more surprised if we didn't get another warned event. Just maybe not widespread 1-2'. 

The one wildcard in my head is March. For many years I expected March to be a spring month and it was right. That's changed. Maybe just cycles in cycles or maybe because oceans are warmer and it shifts climate bookends. Not sure but lately March has been better than many Dec/Jan's. March ninos are generally bad here but the front half of March can produce big storms. Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb. We'll see

That would be hard to swallow. This week has been fun between the two overperformers and the cold surrounding it, making it feel like deep winter. Plus, the squall day before all of it also seemed to overperform.

But outside of that and the one dusting in December, assuming nothing happens next Sunday, which is an extreme long shot, this winter has to be like a D or D+ given expectations, especially now that it looks like we might have nothing to even track until at least mid February. It basically forces us a huge heater over the final month to have a chance for this to meet expectations. Of course, one HECS could do it, but I keep hearing certain people constantly say the upcoming pattern is amazing, hyping up HECS and everything else and not only hasn’t it happened, but it really hasn’t been remotely close.

I know it’s just one run of one OP and it’s an OP, but man, unless we fluke into next Sunday. It looks really, really ugly. Like shut the blinds until at least mid February.

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is pretty close for next Sunday. That is a stout HP over the top. Better timing and its a good storm. 

Ravens snow game for AFC title?!?!?

Streamers look awesome. Hoping they slide a bit east to hit Hoco.

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Light rates and sun through clouds. If you wanted it to stick around you shouldn't have shoveled  

I thought the rates would pick back up. Models seemed to have steady snow most of the day today. This has basically been drizzle most of the day.

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

5.4”, 0.1” last hour. That looks like it pending streamers. Snow peaking through even it is still snowing very lightly.

Yeah, I'm done with this. Driveway is almost completely melted after I shoveled a few hours ago. Been basically nothing since 11. Let's see if we can get under some nice streamers. Looks like they might be a bit too far west and northwest but we shall see.

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Most reports came between 11am & noon. HoCo - MoCo into Loudon stand up

Ouch, that 5-8 in Northern Maryland is going to fail miserably.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

000
NWUS51 KLWX 191831
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
131 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Bwi Airport             39.18N  76.65W
01/19/2024  M4.1 inch        Anne Arundel       MD   Official NWS Obs


&&

Corrected remarks

Event Number LWX2401798

I believe this puts BWI right at 10 inches even on the season, unless they recorded something the day of the snow squall. I know they somehow didn't record anything with the December snow.

3 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Where you at?? I'm down by 103/100 and it was pretty heavy 8-12pm. Probably have 5" total. Last hour or so its been very light, fine snow.

I am just east of where 40 and 70 meet up. There were some short bursts of maybe moderate snow in that period where the flakes were really nice but it seemed to flip back to snizzle pretty quickly. It's been mostly snizzle the past 2-3 hours. I must have had 3-4 on the ground when I woke up and it feels like I haven't added all that much since then.

Snow overnight, which unfortunately I slept through, was very good. Snow today has been largely disappointing, especially given what some of the meso models showed. Other than a few better bursts, it's been mostly snizzle here and all cleared, paved surfaces have been melting for a couple hours. Light rates combined with less dense cloud cover has let the sun do its thing at these temps. Not seeing the pivot or any impact from the inverted trough this way yet.

Going to need some rate increases to see anyone get to the 8 inch mark. I actually thought double digits might be possible for some isolated areas this morning. I wonder when the inverted trough sets up and if we get a pivot later this afternoon. 

Looks like a nice band just to my west.

5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

If the coastal gets going and the banding is good, maybe. Certainly going to be someone enjoying some wraparound fluff in the early afternoon.

I wonder if that norlun trough is going to get going and where exactly it will happen.

1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said:

Last three GFS runs. The trend is our friend. Big changes in Kentucky. Maybe that translates here later?

GFS seems a bit on an island with how dry it is overall.

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

DT on FB talking about upping his numbers on his next snowfall map 

But what will he have on his 6th call map?

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it is - that map jumped the gun

That's more in line with what I expected, thanks!

Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out.

Wow, look at that run of the NAM!

HRRR was awful for the Tuesday storm and is generally bad this far out, but I actually think its latest run is kinda what I expect to happen and generally in line with the GFS and Euro. Philly/NJ is the place to be with this one. NJ could end up with a nice storm.

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Panic. Room.


.

Not really sure why that post is panic room material. Never said winter was over, or that I was taking permanent ink or a sharpie and putting down the grade as an F. Mentioned we still have at least half of winter, if not more, to go. Get a HECS and a SECS from mid February to mid March and it goes from F to A. It’s not impossible. I am not expecting February 2010, but it’s not impossible. But I think looking realistically at things is fair. Unless we get a surprise Friday, we will head into February with below average snow and in a Nino to boot. Those are the facts.

16 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Since 2009, I've received a TOTAL of 7.5" in 10 accumulating snow events over the last 14 Decembers (incl this winter) 

In the same period I've received a total of 32" in 13 accumulating snow events over the last 13 March's

December isn't a winter month.  March is.  We're only 2 weeks into winter.

Right, but basically a month into it since Friday is nothing and then we have a week or so of nothing heading into February.

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade

Yeah, I might even go F given expectations. To date, we have had basically three snow events. We had the anafront deal that gave me a light dusting, the snow squall which gave me a light dusting and was probably more fun than the anafront event, and then the snow this week, which was solid but honestly disappointed me a little because it basically shut off at midnight and it also never snowed hard at any point.

Friday looks like a dusting to a couple of inches at best. In a Nina, that’s a B through January. In a Nino over the past seven years, it’s basically a complete fail. The good news is that, even when we flip the calendar to February, we are still only halfway through winter, if that. But sun angle season isn’t far away, either, and snow that falls later in that period won’t be around long.