osfan24

NAM is rolling. Would like to see that start to juice up a bit.

Sure, maybe that one works out as well, but it doesn't appear it would be a significant storm. Probably just more of the same. Depending upon how well we do with this one Friday night/Saturday, maybe that one hits as well as pushes us to near climo for the year.

Barring some kind of fluke March miracle, it seems like this could be it. Swing and a miss on a big storm again. 

Icon is thumpy. Would be a great storm up in extreme northern MD when you take into account ratios. JB ratios would give them over a foot, lol.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Jb was saying 20 30:1 ratios

100:1 ratios!!!  Finally get our HECS!

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Bullseye over the area. Just needs some serious JUICE.

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago.  That's more conducive of a +PNA, I guess?

Chuck on that good stuff today after the disappointing snow.

4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

 

I guess it is ok. Maybe 1-2 wouldn't be something I think of as a solid hit but maybe that is me. Maybe it can juice up some. The fact it gets in during nighttime is very helpful.

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

We could also make the argument we overachieved in the storms we did receive.  3 times we saw a southern trend verify.  When does that ever happen.  I agree some folks were throwing out Feb 2010 but it was still always a few weeks away.  So we lost a pattern that we only thought would happen 15 days out.  Not the same as losing a storm within a few days. Besides was Chill ever on board for this pattern? Someone said only take it serious when Chill shows up.  Some truth to that.

Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line.

But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing.

I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

39 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

12z Euro is a solid hit, and cold enough for everyone!

You got a different map than me?

49 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

I think folks overthink things when it comes to snow and presume too much based on every model they see. Wild mood swings over snow indicates something else going on not related to weather. Our historical sample size of patterns on a geological time scale is minuscule at best...long term planetary/solar cycles and CC are impossible to predict long term. Changes are not neatly packaged for convenience and results vary. I don't envy anyone in the field trying to analyze or give projections based on models at this point.

Also, snow has nothing to do with winter. That association only comes from places that get snow.

I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim.

Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

Sky looks like some of the "post significant snowstorm skies" I remember from yesteryear. Alas.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just ended. 6” total. measured 2.5” on my pool deck around 7am and 3.5” just now. Current depth is 5.2”.  
 

Woah. That's impressive.

15 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Howard County went with a delay for wet roads. These days if the roads are wet they close schools. 

I think delay was the right call to see if the rates overtook the roads. They didn't, so off to school they go.

It was supposed to snow for 4 plus hours. It actually snowed for maybe 2 lol. So it goes. Let's see if we can luck into one big storm before the flowers bloom.

Best rates of the day by far. Probably coming down an inch an hour right now. Decent flakes, too. Where was this all morning? Starting to see sidewalks and streets getting slushy and trying to cave.

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hah… I’m like @Ji . Love the digital chase. Difference is I think I’m less angry when it doesn’t turn out. Never once thought 5” was on the table… but I’m gonna share it and get into it cause what’s the point if you don’t weenie out on a weather forum?

I’d’ve loved an inch… but very happy with the massive flakes spiraling about. Win as far as I’m concerned

Yeah, I never bought those runs. I did think last night that this thing was likely going to either completely bust or surprise to the upside, with the most likely scenario being it busting. Had to avoid dry slot. Had to have rates. Had to be cold enough. Just too many things had to line up.

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

The details weren't perfect, and it wasn't consistent run-to-run, but some of the NAM Nest runs yesterday did have some handle on the dry slot:

 

Yeah it did kinda nail that. I wonder what kind of rates it advertised. Between the dry slot and the rates not being anywhere near what HRRR threw out there, that was all she wrote for this one. I thought this had some 2011 vibes but the rates were in completely different worlds and those rates also lasted far longer. I think I got about 20 minutes of moderate snow lol.

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Small to medium flakes. Looks like it’s about to rip. 

It tries but it never really does. Those HRRR advertised rates were hilarious.

Oh man, that band kinda weakened and accelerated as it got to me. I think an inch is going to be a tall task now. Appropriate for this winter.

6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

That's me, basically! Waffling between light and moderate snow now.

Light snow here now. Looks like that band has made it to my doorstep. Let's see if it is legit or not.

Just now, Scraff said:

Looks like we’re on the cusp …

Yeah, I am getting very light snow here, if you can call it that.

I really hate this winter with a passion. So much hype. Just a bunch of teases. I don't think it would have been an epic winter to this point, but it would have been a really good one if some of these perfect track storms would have been snow. Sitting here waiting on the dryslot to fill in while I can see the back edge flying east. Looks like I am going to get one little band out of this for 45 minutes to an hour and that's it. Dumbest hobby ever.

5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

This was game time for 2-3 per hour per all the models. Not 1 had a dry slot now

I thought some of the models showed that possibility. We just chose to hope it was wrong, lol. But yeah, I know the HRRR showed by 7 am it was snowing basically all the way to the bay, which means it was probably snowing where I am well before that. And I am still waiting for it to start. Punting 1/3 of the time it was supposed to snow is not great, lol.

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Lmao dry slot wasn't picked up till 2 hours ago total killer 

Euro probably going to win this one. RAP and HRRR wayyyy too bullish, not that this is some big surprise, and GFS was probably a bit too bullish as well. The northern tier should be able to grab a few inches out of this, however, which lines up pretty well with the king.