osfan24

Dry slot just won't fill in. Probably going to be an hour later on the onset of snow than it should have been. Can't afford to punt an hour of snow when it's only going to snow for 3-4 hours. Guessing I end up with a dusting to an inch. Nice band out by Frederick and Leesburg.

It better snow like crazy once the dryslot gets out of here or this is going to bust low. I think the Euro may have been right.

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

No way mjo should have that much impact.

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but the trends are not encouraging 

The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance.  

Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. 
 

I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it. 

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

only when they dont show what we want

Yeah, if the models were flipped and they were trash and Euro was good, we would be hugging the hell out of the Euro. It's been a rough winter and looks kinda bleak now the rest of the way. The mesos for this one are the only thing we have. I am fully prepared to be heartbroken.

22 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Still too warm for immediate metro but N/W with elevation this could be something.  But red flag is the Euro is about 5 degrees warmer than the RAP at 12z.  Euro has DC at 39 and RAP at 34.

Isn't that just rates? Euro just seems drier overall. I think the question is whether you buy the mesos with the intense dump or is that being overplayed and the Euro is correct with less intense rates? Or maybe something in the middle, which seems like the GFS.

Even Brooklyn has vanished.

Seems so close to a big thump for Baltimore metro area. DC has a bit more work to do but not too far out of it either. Feels like we need two more significant bumps south. Think we might just run out of time.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

This would be a pretty nuts 3 hours for CMD

Commutageddon vibes.

Well, at least it is the GFS and an Op run. Woof.

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Not giving up, but there are plenty of posts about PD3, which I guess is now off the table.

I am being impatient at this point, not bailing....was hoping for something to track by the end of this weekend inside 2 weeks.  Maybe the Cape storm around the 24th will be it!

I mean, it's not a high probability, but models are still hinting at Tuesday. It's at least trackable for another few runs or so. Things should start to show up on the long range in the next few days I would think.

20 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Not saying it won't be cold enough to snow, just that we're not gonna get cold smoke this late in the season, and with the sun angle being what it is we just need rates to get real accumulation.  That even includes overnight precip, at least within DC.  I'm not saying it's impossible, in fact I love the fact we're tracking bombs and big dogs and not some weak piddling stuff.  That's what we need.  But big snow in DC past mid-feb is always always an uphill battle.

Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late.

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern  calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist.  Then there is this crap. 

Also liked how the map showed several major snowstorms and then his actual tweet said at least one major lol. Soooo, which is it?

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

Beautiful.

I was a swimmer and a runner growing up. I found that swimming got me in the best shape. I could be swimming regularly and not run at all and then go for a long run without any problems. Flip that around and that was not the case at all. Swimming is a rather lonely existence, however. At least with running, your head is above water and you are outside. You can talk to people if you have a running friend and look around. With swimming, you get none of that. It's a good sport but I kinda wish I had switched to another sport sooner than I did. Cycling/spinning is hard but it doesn't get me in the shape that running or swimming does. I find those to be much more of a full-body workout than cycling. I love a good run when snow is falling.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

oh my god. JB and Mark Margarbage are always posting the Euro control cause it shows crazy snow totals all the time. Now its going to be our operational model @psuhoffman?

Yeah, essentially making the Euro control the new Op is, uhhhh, not great.

7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january

Yeah, and that storm was so close to being even better. Just slightly too warm at the start. Places northeast of us did much better.

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

@osfan24

 

What's not average? I said average(avg) once. Nothing to do with snowfall.

My post was in reference to the finite number of periods where we get a pattern that is supportive of below average temps (with snow chances) in a typical winter for this region, regardless of ENSO state. No mention of Nino, Nina, climo/ any specific amounts of snow, or expectations.

And who of us are 'crazy' and for what reason?

My post was really a response to you questioning that those expecting a big, snowy winter this year don't know where they live. I know where I live, and I understand ENSO and what I should expect given whatever state it is for that winter. What we get on average in a typical winter is really meaningless as ENSO state plays such a massive role in what we actually get in specific winters, which was basically my point all along. I probably average 20-22 inches of snow a year. I don't expect that next year. I expect far less. I don't expect that this year. I expect far more. I expect those things because I know what each winter should deliver. Doesn't mean it will, but it is critical for us to hit big in this ENSO state. Otherwise, average snowfall will crater unless somehow the bad years magically start producing much bigger snows.

My point was that, and it's not just you, and I guess I am kinda just repeating PSU here, but I keep seeing all of these posts acting like nickel and diming our way to climo this winter is good. And it's just not. I'm not saying you can't enjoy it or have whatever expectations you want. That's up to you. I was hoping to see it snow harder at points last week, but overall, it was a great week. Two events, both kinda surprises to some degree, and cold temps that kept the snowpack for 9-10 days. Loved it. But factually, BWI getting 4 snow events this winter and fighting its way to near 20 inches is just not good when factoring in ENSO state.

Seems like the same issue we've had outside of basically the last week. It's just not cold enough.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Give it a rest dude. Your "point" had nothing to do with what I said in my post. And show me where I said you attacked anyone. You might want to take that one up with PSU.

Give it a rest? Says the guy who made numerous posts about it over the past 3 pages of the thread. I made an original post, and then just responded again. But yes, I’ll give it a rest.

Your point was a repeat of what we already had would be a typical snowfall for the season. My point was that’s not the case for a Nino and nuance matters.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.

I had a point. You just disagreed with it. I don’t recall attacking anyone, either. I just said people who think climo in a Nino is good are crazy. Your constant posts about my one post have been far more egregious than anything I said, not that I take offense, but it’s comical.

Your post literally said we just came off a great week (true) and that if we could repeat it again, it would be a typical season at this latitude. That’s just not true for a Nino . We’ve had about 10 inches of snow. BWI is at 9.2 I believe. If you double that, it is literally climo. It’s not terrible in a Nina. In a Nino, that’s not good. That was my only point. And the fact you seem to think it’s good is why I posted.

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

I should probably put something together but I was just going with the following: 

I am shocked 2014 isn’t on this list. I know it’s for DC, but 2014 to me was just an incredible winter between the constant light to moderate snowstorms and incredible cold. Even 2015 seems like it could make a run at that list.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

How many weeks of actual winter weather did we have the last time there was a strong Nino? Be careful calling people crazy when you drop turd posts like this.

Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between.

My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte!

2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do.

59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.

Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

But it’s not average for this type of nino. Some of you are crazy. The average winter is literally the average of the few really good winters that are Nino’s where we crush it and a lot of crappy other seasons that are Nina or neutral. Hitting climo in a nino is a failure. You suffer through the last seven years for this year.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

of course i was hoping it would be a feb 1 to Feb 20 window.....but it is what is. Feb 10-March 10. Lets see what happens.

Area wide we are in the 10-13 inch zone right now

One Mecs of 15 and one Secs of 8 puts us 33-36. Thats a very good winter

One Hecs of 25 and one secs of 5 puts us 40-45 inches...that would be pretty epic around

One Hecs of 35 and a secs of 3....would put us over 50

HECS or bust.