osfan24

Icon is definitely a bit worse for some, for the little it matters.

Looks like GFS really cut back on precip after the overnight monster run. Might have to do with the shift to a slightly colder/less amped solution. Interesting to see how the storm has sped up so much in time. I feel like most of the time, our storms usually move back a bit in time, not up.

Alright, let's find a way to slow this thing down and stall it and bomb right over us to get a KU.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Keep vigilant for carpenter bees. If they are around those woodpeckers will stop at nothing to get at them. That includes deck boards and siding.

Hate the carpenter bees. We moved into our new house a few years ago and they had put so many holes in our wood fence. I've spend the past couple of years trying to eradicate them and fill in the holes. People that lived here before us did like zero maintenance on anything.

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I hear you, I just love seeing this solution versus the low running through Charleston WV, lol.  We've got the high and low in the right place with this run... time cross fingers that it sticks to the canonical track off of the OBX/VA coast over the next two days worth of runs.

Oh yeah, I am not worried about that run. It was a perfectly fine run that keeps everyone right in the game. I do agree it looks like a pretty classic Mid-Atlantic MECS to HECS storm track. Just needed to gain a bit more lattitude.

One thing I'd like to see to pump up the totals more into HECS range is some WAA snow running through the region before we get into the CCB.

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

dude the low is due east of the NC/VA border at 144 hours... a hundred miles further NW and we rain in the 95 corridor. This thing is gonna jump around a lot in the next two days

Was not saying this is the final solution but that is definitely suppressed. I don't even think the heavy snow bands reach 95 unless the GFS is just not correctly showing how expansive precip would be on the northwest side.

Looks suppressed to me.

I am greedy. Let's start bumping those totals up a little.

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The next super long range storm on the Euro is looking intense ... not sure if thats intense good or bad yet.

Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO 156

It is depressing looking at this. So close, yet so far.

I don't get the GEFS love. It spent all of last winter following the op. Seems like it will do the same this winter.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is going to be a disaster I think. Hope I’m wrong 

Yeah, low is already way too far northwest.

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UMD has added a micronet to the Maryland Mesonet for College Park. Early results show a clear UHI.

I don't know if it is the metro or what. Obviously, it's probably even worse now than when I went there since the school and especially surrounding area has become far more built up than it was in the early and mid 2000's. But you would think with some of the green space there that it would help mitigate some of it. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2006

 

That makes more sense for Feb 2006. College Park clearly in the 8-12 and I am guessing it was much closer to 8 and possibly even a localized amount under 8. I am not sure why, but College Park always seemed to run warmer than surrounding areas. Do remember the February 2003 crushjob very well. That one hit us good down there, though again, not as hard as I got hit at home.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji Case in point there have been 11 snowstorms of greater than 15” here since 1980.  Every one of them was also a big storm for you.  We share the same big storms.  

Jan 96: 36”

Feb 11 2010: 30”

Jan 2016: 28”

Feb 2003: 28”

Feb 83: 28”

Feb 5 2010: 27”

Feb 2014: 23”

Dec 2009: 18”

Feb 1987: 18”

March 93: 17”

Feb 2006: 16”

 

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

41 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe it’s different during a nino, but last year the ensembles had tracks biased too far SE at 5-8 day leads. They eventually corrected to the op tracks. 

We saw the ens move NW with the mean track already. The op is too far NW for a pure snow event along I-95, but NW of the fall line still in the game. 

Let’s root for the 1/4 system to go ape off the coast for a stronger 50/50

I remember that well. The ensembles were worthless last year and oddly followed the op. Hopefully, that's not the case this year. Definitely some big hit potential with this one but could be heartbreak as well.

Oh baby. So close to something even bigger.

Interesting that the January 10 system tries for a little front-end something. Doesn't happen but I just kinda wrote everything off after January 6/7. Maybe that will bear watching at some point.

985 off of OC and hardly snowing, lol. Another way to fail I guess. At least it is a step in the right direction.

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe those 'saying its ok' fully realize the advertised look is not what we ideally want to see, but also recognize that if that that's hand we are dealt we have a couple choices- find something else to do, or continue to look for chances within that pattern. We have managed to snow in non-ideal longwave patterns you don't approve of in recent winters, and many here are happy with any snow at all, and don't have your high standards of 40"+ per season and KUs in every Nino. In this area we suck at snow in general, and its likely not getting any better going forward. Maybe you need to adjust a bit.

I think his point, and one I share, is that when we finally get a Nino where things look like they should be lined up for a big season, you have to get that big season. We are coming out of an awful period for snow. I know where I live, I don't expect 96/03/09-10/14 every year. I get it. Those years are few and far between. But especially when our snow in general seems to be really decreasing in the crappy seasons, we have to hit big on the good seasons. To nickel and dime my way to 12-15 inches this year would be dreadful.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol its 222 hours out....and it actually has made a gradual improvement over the last few runs.

Sure, it's better and certainly worth monitoring. This was always the time period/storm I thought had the best chance to produce before the mid-January relax period.

Too warm and the system goes from a slug of moisture to much weaker by the time it gets up here.

14 minutes ago, IronTy said:

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years.  Finally some good news that you can take to the bank, guaranteed.  

Even if he was right, which he probably wasn't, those of us looking for snow and big snow at that do not want severe cold. Congrats Atlanta!

1 hour ago, stormy said:

The historic Jan. 66 blast didn't begin until Jan. 22.    During the next 2 weeks we had nearly 40 inches of snow.  Everybody needs to settle down and be patient!

My post was not to say the winter is a bust. We could most certainly shuffle the deck in mid-January and then go on a run in our true prime climo. I was only talking about this upcoming window from early to mid January.

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet.

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?