osfan24

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The models seem to agree that Monday is a lost cause, but there is still a difference in how much of Sunday we can salvage.

Seems like a real forum-divider. Looks like a nice weekend and almost completely dry up here. Could be pretty wet for parts of VA Sunday-Monday.

Anyone have a clue about tomorrow morning's weather? We got two sporting events in the morning. The latest NAM looks awful, but most of the other models look to be either just some scattered light rain or nothing.

If that's Round 2 down near Richmond, it's gonna be a swing and a miss for us.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z was a deluge though 

Missed that. Was 12z any good? Really need that afternoon slug to be farther west and train over us.

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

True, but I was hoping for a more widespread stratiform rain all day.

Yeah, either the 18z or 0z NAM was a red flag on a big rain event today. Seem to have steady rain this morning, a break, and then mostly a miss from the really heavy rain and storms this afternoon.

Latest NAM looks lame.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z HREF out of SPC soaks Delmarva and central PA tomorrow. Tries for a few 6"+ jackpots in those areas.

 

 

Give me some of that action.

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meso guidance really starting to up the ante for the Sunday system. 

Nice, what's it looking like?

Looks like Friday and Sunday are trending to soakers and Saturday trending to pretty dry.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro really drying up, but other guidance is wet. Either the Euro is about to score a coup or is going to look like a fool. 

I will trade a crappy weekend for a really nice soaking, but I'll be annoyed if it's like .75 inches of rain but just cloudy/cool/misty for most of it.

6z GFS looks like a complete washout the entire weekend.

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ground is wet but these showers keep dying on my doorstep

That's crazy you got nothing. My radarscope had strikes all over my house and we got a decent hour of rain.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Thunder with rain on the west side of Columbia. Just thunder at my house. Hopefully those cells rotate through.

Several strikes basically right on top of my house. That storm was impressive from a T&L standpoint. That storm down by Clarksville looks very impressive as well.

With the way this year is going so far, we really need to cash in on some nice Tropical remnant rain.

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meh, I know we love baseball but the sport has a historically tough time calling off games when needed. Not gonna complain about them being too cautious. The 1/14 stat is crazy to me.

 

Today's postponements were absurd but I am just baffled every summer when baseball games are played literally as the sky is lighting up with lightening. I don't get it.

NAM seems to like the 95 area for storms this afternoon, particularly toward Baltimore and then down in Southern MD.

22 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

Winter of 2015-16 was an awful winter but since we had one HECS we seem to remember that whole winter fondly for some reason.  I remember seeing mosquitoes in December 2015 because it was downright muggy and tropical for the entire month.  Our last decent winter was 2014-15.  8 years ago.

If we're headed towards a Super-Nino then next winter will be terrible.  A slightly increased chance of a HECS doesn't make up for the awfulness of Super-Ninos.

 

 

This is all true, but I would not kick the 2015-2016 winter out of bed at this point. Given what has been happening, I'd sign up for that winter in a heartbeat next year.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

Nah, I finally checked out a few days ago, and even then, I felt dumb for trying to convince myself that this time was different and we had a legit chance.

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

I hate that storm. It was such a tease.

Looked like it was aimed for me but it has narrowed some and now looks like it will slide just east of me.

Wrong thread.

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

6z keeps the faith

That run looked amazing. Lock it up.

LOL, looked far better than those totals indicate. Weird.

P20 one freaking time.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji lastly why would you even worry about the NAM. Even the euro is dangerous here. Has a nasty track record of developing these too fast.  All other 0z guidance so far trended north. The RGEM isn’t even a big hit for NYC. It’s targeting Vermont!   

The Euro definitely does this a lot. NYC has to hate the Euro. I feel like it has shown a bunch of systems like this before to be big hits and then pulls the rug out right before the event.