osfan24

The pattern is changing. How much remains to be seen, and whether we will cash in or not. But get out of here with that 12/28 talk. No one that seriously tracks this stuff thought that was anything to be tracking. We cash in during the middle, and probably mostly, toward the end of pattern changes. 1/6 and on is really the timeframe I am concerned with. Anything before then was a big surprise/added bonus and I wouldn't have even taken seriously until the short-to-medium range.

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is cooking up something in the Jan. 6 timeframe. That's the one I'm after. If that one isn't at least interesting to track... it'll be sad.

Agreed. I always thought everything before this date was too fast/early in the pattern change. But if nothing comes of the January 5-12 timeframe.......

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

At least the SPIRE gets it done on Jan. 2.

Must run based on the climate pre 2016.

I have to say I am more Team PSU with this as time passes. I mean, unless that model run is just completely wrong with temperatures, how the hell is that not snow? And people keep making this excuse and that excuse. We live in Maryland. If we need 4089038098098098 things to be perfect for it to snow, then what are we even doing anymore?

It's still rain on the backside when the low is off the coast of Nantucket. Alarming. Going in the PSU book.

I'm just happy we keep seeing the good looks consistently holding as we continue to move closer in time. Feels like we might have something to track once we get through Christmas. At least by New Year's I would think.

Pummeled

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

No doubt. When PSU broke down how things might proceed from here, I cringed a bit. I know he still said late January-February could be the real deal, but potentially waiting until then after all the talk of virtual wall-to-wall -NAO and -AO and after so many seasons of nothingness and can-kicking.........whew, that would test us.

Looks like a couple HECS in there.

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

oh come on, that'd be fun! 2 days with 30 inches of snow, and mild temps the rest of the time. perfection. 

Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters are brutal.

Storm around the 28th or so just seems rushed to me. Pattern is just changing and we rarely do well on the front end of those. I'm just happy to see the pattern not being can-kicked at this point. As for storms, so long as there is no more kicking, I think we will start tracking after Christmas but it's probably going to be stuff for early January, which is great if it works out that way. If we can start tracking as we enter prime-climo, that's great timing.

Mitchell injury is devastating. He gave the running game an explosive, big play weapon. Between that and the offensive line issue, I am not sure we can take advantage of a weak AFC and get to the Super Bowl. At least we have a really good shot at the top seed now. Lose to SF, beat Miami and Pittsburgh and the road comes through Baltimore.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wow, so basically this "can kicking its time to punt all of January" is turning out to be like 48 hours of "can kicking."  I hope the debs can handle it.

Your confidence is something still two weeks away is more than mine, especially after what I've seen. I certainly wouldn't be planning parades and victory laps yet. I would term myself as very cautiously optimistic but skeptical. Hopefully, it''s actually real this time.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Except for the 3 blizzards many still got more snow that winter than like 5 of the last 7!  There was a 3-5” snow for the western burbs Dec 5.  A coating late Dec. 1-3 early Jan.  4-7” late Jan. 3-5” early Feb. 1-3” in MD late Feb.  And that’s ignoring the ridiculousness of “except for 3 blizzards” but yes I know you’re mostly kidding. 

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

I know it's still early, but painful to see these missed opportunities. Looks like this one could have been Dec 2009 on steroids.

Isn't the AO and NAO both positive?

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Is this the panic room? lol

One thing I've noticed looking at some of the maps (like that nor'easter) is the cold air is occurring more so in "pockets" as opposed to long-drawn out cold snaps.  It certainly makes it more difficult to time a storm and it probably allows for more of those inland tracks as well.  Another thing I've noticed is that we haven't really had a bitter cold snap yet.  It's still early for that, but even in the heart of winter we usually need an arctic high (for a flush hit snowfall).

No panic. We aren't even halfway through December yet. But concern? Sure. Did not expect a repeat of December 2009. Did not even expect much snow at all this month. I wanted to see the hype of the supposed great pattern continue to move up in time as time passed, and instead it's just doing a disappearing act. Like PSU said, it's concerning but fine for now, but we get to the turn of the year and we still don't see that pattern? Uh oh. Seems like more of the past however many crap winters where good patterns are just a mirage and keep getting kicked down the road until it's April.

We don't even need it to be that cold. We just need seasonable when it comes to January and February. Give us seasonable with precipitation and a low with decent strength and that's plenty to give us snow.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems to be a slower progression. modeling underdid how strong the Pacific jet would get since they underestimated the +EAMT event. they corrected, and they still look good once the jet retracts. it's just backed up a bit. wouldn't worry too much about it

also, given how weak the SPV is going to get (could even see a SSW), we should see more blocking, especially late Jan into Feb

LOL, so now we are can-kicking almost all of January? 

There's clearly an issue of the location of the weather station and measuring area at BWI, so why don't they just change it? Does not seem very difficult.

Little disappointed to only get about a half inch and nothing on roads after seeing some models focus the heavy band right over my area. Guessing I got into a heavier band for a half hour or so and got most of my snow from that. Knew there would be winners and losers with this. Interesting to see that just northwest of me seemed to cash in and then way down in Southern MD did pretty well.

Most importantly, PSU had a nice accumulation so winter is saved.

Rates was the only thing we had going for us so if we lose that........

Not sure this one is worth the early-morning alarm. Seems to be sliding away from most, if not all, of us.

Definitely seeing a bleeding away of the snow, whether it's lack of precip or temperatures. 

4 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

lol just heard a big rumble of thunder in Ellicott City. One boom lasted 15 seconds. 

That was bizarre. That was the longest rumble of thunder I have ever heard by far. Seemed like it went on for 30-45 seconds.

So much for the negative NAO/AO for much of December leading to a great winter. Looks to be positive for most of the month. That plus the can-kicking is bringing back vibes of past awful snow years.