osfan24

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya might need to get some sleep....wrong thread 

He sees the future!!

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Upgraded to a warning

District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Northwest Prince William-
1028 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, possibly changing to light freezing rain or
  freezing drizzle along the Interstate 95 corridor toward
  morning. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central Maryland, The District of Columbia
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

 

Let’s gooooo!!!!!! It’s been forever! Feels amazing. And just as some tasty bands are incoming.

If RAP is right, I could hit 8 or maybe a little higher.

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

He meant late January, lol

We wish.

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

How creepy and accurate was this lol

Weird. February might not work out that way though.

Just now, Scraff said:

Real nice showing today. Love to grab 1 more inch. Radar says maybe!?

Wow, nice total for you so far. You might be able to double that.

Nice, light, steady snow causing roads to cave. Wasn’t awake for the snow overnight, but definitely the heaviest it has been today that I have seen. Looks like it’s nice and light and fluffy so probably a nice ratio. Grass is almost covered.

Ha, 20:1 would have some isolated spots pushing for double digits.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was always disagreement for early Feb but all guidance agrees the NAO goes negative again by mid Feb.  The Euro had a -NAO early Feb but it was always a very weak signal...it didn't go strongly neg until later...now guidance is more in agreement that the NAO starts to flip back negative between Feb 10-15.  That's fine with me...Feb 15-March 10 is still prime snow climo.  And there would be opportunities for snow before then in the advertised pattern.  JUst not really a HECS until we get the nao back. 

In big trouble for HECS hunting if NAO doesn’t go negative before February 15. Don’t have a great track record of big storms that late.

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs back with something Friday.

Needs a lot of work but if it would start trending now like todays storm has over the past 24 hours or so we could really have something.

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO

Euro is one stingy mofo

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a model war going on between the gefs and eps for Feb 1-15. Both end up the same place the second half of Feb but the eps says Feb 1-15 is workable. Not great but decent. Gefs is a shit the blinds look Feb1-15. 
 

Another “odd” thing is despite the great looking pattern on the eps the snow means remain low. Below avg even for after this next 10 days!  I’ve been looking at the control runs the last 5 days to try to see why. They have matched the mean h5 look so that was helpful. For whatever reason the storm track was just to our northwest every time a significant wave came along despite what was otherwise a great pattern.  Aleutian low. Epo ridge. -nao. Lower heights in the Atlantic. Storm track was either suppressed (I don’t mean snow south of us I mean the waves get in washed out) or if amplified to our north. This isn’t a one day thing it’s been a consistent theme for a week.  I don’t make too much of those long range snow means but I’d prefer they march the pattern. It’s odd with a h5 that says the mid atlantic should be the target the models still are saying it’s the upper Mideast to northern New England.  Maybe others have a theory why. 

I hope the EPS is a lot more than workable during the first 15 days of February. That’s when we need the mint pattern to crush us. Haven’t had many big storms later than that.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal.

Also… snow squall warnings out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window

This seems like a pretty significant improvement!

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 

I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good.

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think its can kicking per say but I see some slightly troubling trends for early Feb. 

EPS 10 days ago 

eps now 

the major features are the same. But the eps has been delaying the -nao from redeveloping.  That isn’t shocking that’s really hard for guidance to get right.  Unfortunately that will be huge once the pac jet extends again.

 

There will be a brief period late Jan as the pac jet starts to extend that the configuration is perfect and we don’t need any nao help to get cold. But early Feb the pac trough gets slightly east of perfect again. Not bad. Very common for a Nino. But we need some blocking help to stop the warmer air being injected there from spreading east and taking over. It’s still not a bad look at all. We would get chances. But the new look has more thermal issues than the look 10 days ago. 
 

If you want to be an optimist the eps is trending even better for the period Feb 10-25 though. It went from good to OMG how can it not snow in that.  And I know we’re all super impatient now justifiably so but Mid Feb to early March is not too late. 2014, 2015, 2018 our best snow was after Feb 10 all those years!  And two of them we remember very fondly!  
 

Personally since I’m out of the area from Feb 3-10 I’m ok with the timing. lol. I’ll duck and cover now…

Seems like some potential can-kicking. It’s getting late, early.

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I’ll have some of whatever the NAM is smokin’

I called it last night. NAMing would bring back interest lol can’t help but laugh at the irony at this point 

that being said… most models showing 2-4” type deal. I’ll take that as an appetizer to the 20th

Ha, this looks like it might be the main course.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare

seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

I don’t think anyone is literally expecting 09-10. I got 100 inches that year lol. But if we can’t go big in this nino, then when exactly???

The problem is completely whiffing going into February means we basically need a repeat of 2010 for his winter to be a success in my mind given the past seven years and what we see looking ahead.

Just now, paulythegun said:

18z RGEX XR looks pretty great. Hold onto hope folks!

Did so well with the last one……writing is on the wall, all hail king euro.

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

mint!

To be fair, every run since November has been mint and I will give credit where it is due, I have seen my mint green grass every day his winter.

And to think people doubted the king. The Euro remains at the top for a reason.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dang what a loaded gfs run. Lol warmup 

Yeah, that was wild. Kinda too much of a good thing with the cold.

January 20th timeframe looked interesting/kinda close?

Wind has really calmed down here. Eerily quiet.

Looks like we got a 55 mph gust. Been lots of flickering lights. Think I am around 2 inches but will have to check the gauge tomorrow.