osfan24

Snowing nicely here now and sticking to the grass. Temp is stubborn at 35 though.

Thats a thin but awesome band up in PA.

35 and flurries.

Nervous the southern band is setting up just north of 70.

GFS time

36. Inching my way there.

So RAP and HRRR bust way too high last storm and now they are gonna nail this one with very little. Go figure.

Well that’s not great. This is wild how significantly these totals are being cut. Some areas nearly chopped in half from previous run.

Time for the NAM to put everyone at ease.

Downto 38 here. Excited for my thump tonight.

JB hyping up March after the warmth goes away lol

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love the GFS. Can't say the same for the Euro. In the context of maximizing the potential for this storm, they are pretty far apart.

Yeah, weird the drastic differences in qpf 

Just now, Interstate said:

So they are basically going with "worst case"

 

Yeah, that's kinda odd. It's a bigger difference toward DC but Baltimore and north the map is almost the same. And it looks like they were issued at the same time.

Wow, they are all in. Love that I'm sitting in the 5-8. Might be my biggest storm of the season.

Just get that thing a little farther south and east and a tiny bit more cold air and maybe we try for a HECS.

There's the bowling ball!

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS has gone from Buffalo to Morgantown to Richmond

Where is the cold air? Also, is that one or the one after we are tracking?

Just now, snowfan said:

You’re not getting 15:1. No one is expecting that.

A few mets on here suggested something from 12:1 to 15:1.

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

HRRR was awful for the last storm and is also very jumpy this far from the event. I wouldn't really get worried about anything it is showing until this evening, and even then, I wouldn't give it much weight unless other guidance came in line with it.

Still a little nervous I'm gonna get clawed in my spot on this one. It's not all models, but some really seem to show the DC/south of DC jack and then the Southern PA jack.

It still won’t be good because it’s a Nino, but if we cash in tomorrow and then find a way to get in one more 2-4/3-6ish type event, a good portion of the area will reach climo or be very close to climo.

This thread is in worse shape than the Orioles.

Euro looks good. I want that band north of PSU that wants to make a run at 6 inches.

Seems like Kuchera not buying the high ratio stuff. Certainly not buying crazy JB.

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside

I don't like seeing how north it is getting. Like some have said, there are two max bands, one with heaviest qpf and bad temps and one with great temps and solid qpf. The colder of those two bands seems to be drifting up into southern PA on some of the models.