osfan24

Woke up with a big jump in thread pages and knew something big happened last night. Really great shift from the GFS and nice to see the CMC and Euro with big storm ideas. Hope we tracking some legit threats by the end of the weekend.

LOL yeah, who in the world would turn something like that down? It would stink it would disappear so fast, but who cares when you get to experience a mid-March bomb? That would be almost unprecedented here. I thought the GFS was a step in the right direction. At least it showed the kind of storm that I would think we would get out of this pattern, even if it wasn't exactly what we wanted. It's like 260 hours away.

Yeah, that's the problem. Every shift back a day or two hurts a lot more right now than January or February. We can live with the slight shifts back if we hit immediately, but the problem is it's probably going to take us a few chances to get a hit. We can definitely get a good snowstorm into the third week of March, but I have trouble remembering something that hit after like the 21st. I remember a good, very heavy, wet snow that hit in March of 1999 I believe and I think that one hit pretty late. I think I got like 6-10 or something from that.

That's what I noticed. Bottom 10-20 years were just littered with the past decade and 25 years.

It did? Must have been a very slight change.

How far is Albany from you?

The bad news is we are yet again 10 days away, and climo is going to start factoring in to some degree, and increasingly so as time progresses. The good news is that the actual 10 days away thing seems far more real than any of the fake 10 days away stuff people have been constantly getting excited about this year. And if Lucy does pull the football again, at least we all know it's the last time and we can move on to spring.

At least the Americans appear to be back on top.

Pretty sure the Icon IS the toilet.

Yeah we don't need the bleeding to stop. We need a massive shift south.

Not surprised. The margin for error was always so small with this one. Needed the perfect track, and the small shifts north were a bad sign.

Wobbles will obviously continue to occur, but don't like seeing the EPS basically move to a bullseye on NYC. That's way north. We don't want to be on the southern edge. That's a dangerous game to play.

A 978 low in Kentucky is not great. Need it to be way less strong.

I'll take my chances at this point. We've had nothing and we are talking March. Go big or go home.

Well, I saw some flakes. But nothing close to any kind of accumulation. Those maps were awful. Looks like the heaviest preciP was wayyyy south. Next.

Radar looks like straight garbage and I’m already in the mid 30s but I’ll try to keep the faith.

An actual wound up storm rather than an overrunning event. I guess February 2003 was kinda overrunning, but it's the only one I can think of that crushed us with a similar type setup.

DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.

If true, this would be crushing.

I pretty much toss December, though sometimes we can manage some small events there, and expect March to have some chances even if the snow melts away in a day or less. But some of that is probably recency bias because, other than 2009 and a decent event I think in 2013, I can't remember very many December snows, whereas March seems to have been littered with them over the past decade. We've seemingly had some pretty cold March's lately, but that might also be skewed by 13 and 14.

I salute those who are legitimately taking this all seriously still and very closely tracking whatever it is that you are tracking. The true definition of insanity. True gluttons for punishment. It's truly impressive.

This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th.

Can something come back that was never here?

Yeah I keep looking at the radar and it is so depressing. Would easily top a foot if this was snow. Radar looks classic.

Is it really drier or is the low just not making it as far north, so the heaviest slug is shifting southeast?