jbenedet

With this I'm gonna say the GFS op is still the outlier.

The 12z GEFS shows a clear nod to the CMC evolution. It's much more clear in the GEFS than the op.

Safe to say don't really know where this goes from here. Uncertainty went up vs 18 hrs ago. Information too unreliable right now. Wait and see mode again...

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather.

GFS is a lot slower than the EPS. It isn't at all buying an earlier phase, but a second vort in northern stream looks liable to hook up while over eastern conus. If not now, then in future runs.

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really. Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance. Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

That is an impossibility.

Triggered. and a liar. Had no idea I even made a call. lol. Not only does the guy read minds, he makes up their mind for them.

Pretty funny seeing these SNE weenies wanting to sell the GFS at 6z after hugging it at 0z

0z GEFS more phasing than the op. 18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS 12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs. I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense. I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

Sorry guys. 0z GEFS flaggin’ the shit out of the hang back idea of the southern stream vort.

0z GFS has a +NAO/+AO type evolution. Doesn’t fit.

0z GFS was BS the way it hangs back the southern stream and doesn’t phase at all. Hard sell. The GEFS and EPS both look more amped out west with much earlier and cleaner phasing than the op.

For S&G's.. 975/984 location right near PSM/PWM, is my bet at this point. And 975 good baseline in terms of intensity at that location.

Yeh; no kiddin'. The teles scream amped solution. This one looks like poor timing in a good longwave pattern. The Northern stream looks like it will phase early, and cleanly with the southern stream over the central US. The southern stream vort is also amped, early on out west. The building PNA ridge allows the northern stream to drop right into the central plains. Kaboom. I'm worried about warm sectoring into SE northern new england. This thing is gonna crank. Too much of a good thing, for most.

Allow the multi-day torch to commence. Exceed average daily high by 10 am kinda day. 45 is a lock for PSM. 47 my bet. +12

I was driving through Andover MA this past weekend and saw a field of broccoli heads coming up. Had to triple take it…. That’s at least a month early.

Yes that’s another good point. By this time of the year, for buildings/homes that get good sun, you’re def using less heat at 35 and full sun than 45 and clouds. And yea does a lot to improve your day to day sentiment in the heart of winter.

Not really. By feb, 35 and full sun is like 45 real feel; can even feel closer to 50 in city scapes, if wind is completely calm. Also does a lot to brighten things up—lower absolute humidity levels in winter and no vegetation maximize ISR in the biosphere, right at the surface.

Only because the snow maps weren’t producing much at all for New England.

Looks more like late November than early February. And this is before the warmup this week in the northeast which will push the pack line back to Winne. Wouldn’t use early feb climo with snow pack and SST’s up here… Better use a significant + surface temp bias in SNE or risk getting burned.

Did you say geese?

That’s what makes a rat in this part of the world

Big snows will always be close in Dec and Jan, we live in New England lol. I def would not feel good about a forecast on that merit.