Jump to content

jbenedet

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,345

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.
  2. jbenedet
    There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves… A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. Very weak system overall.
  3. jbenedet
    The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run. This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada. Shrediola.
  4. jbenedet
    Seeing some rich green grass pop through the snow cover has me thinking this early season snowfall did a lot of good to help my young lawn establish further before being really stressed.
  5. jbenedet
    This storm just kept steadily intensifying on all guidance over time. Now seeing 969 mb, on the euro, about 200 miles north of Quebec City.
  6. jbenedet
    Agreed. But usually if there’s a refreeze the morning before temp/td spike you can get some resistance out of the pack. No chance if it’s been thawing for 24+ hours, as will be in this case.
  7. jbenedet
    Guidance was too low for the morning temps up here. Even DAW stayed comfortably above freezing all night.
  8. jbenedet
    Real killer to the pack is 32+ dews though and that happened before midnight and kept slowly rising all morning.
  9. jbenedet
    Today’s progged highs will easily be exceeded. Upper 40’s in view for many.
  10. jbenedet
    There’s a lot of support for that look. La Nina (Jan), the EPS and GEFS forecasts for the NAO teleconnection are also aligned for deeply negative. The op runs signaling similar. Start worrying.
  11. jbenedet
    It matches the teleconnection forecast. Not good.
  12. jbenedet
    Yea this is kinda where I’m at, especially with peak winter climo a few weeks away. NYC metro close enough to watch with keen interest…
  13. jbenedet
    The cutter will wipe anywhere that doesn’t fall below freezing tonight. Probably the usual line cutting through DAW and N ORH to just north of PWM…
  14. jbenedet
    This isn’t what we want for the bulk of New England. Seasonal cold and dry, especially in northern New England. Once this -NAO gets entrenched it could even result in N, to AN in Northern and eastern sections of New England. In a La Niña this is something we should be vigilante against as tendency into January is dry up here. The main takeaway is this will send most storm tracks south. I’d be watching intently in mid Atlantic, down to Virginia.
  15. jbenedet
    Euro with 978 mb in southern Ottawa. 61 is record high for the date here. They will be under threat regionally Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters. From someone who only wants big snowstorms, and seasonal cold. This is pattern is trash.
  16. jbenedet
    Bc it will be gone by Thursday, and the SNE region up to seacoast NH, Boston and Portland will be tracking less than half climate average snowfall through Christmas. But sure “optimism”. Snow colored glasses and chest pounding from 40/70 too. Good luck with the blogspot. It’s been so bad that 4” gets the attention of DCer’s around here.
  17. jbenedet
    That looks like heavy snow in western queens/nassau right now. ~35 dBz Congrats. Don’t think any major metros up to Portland Maine have seen that this season.
  18. jbenedet
    It’s a narrow band of frontogenesis. Sinking/subsidence just to the north. Another way to put it is the stronger the band, the worse the subsidence in areas just north of it. Have and have nots right across the sound. Not an exact forecast here but from a conceptual standpoint it’s a case where commack LI could see 6” and north haven CT, 1.5”. The modeling likely underdone on the gradient (delta).
  19. jbenedet
    I would NOT be using this rationale to go lower. They will lose on that. Looks good for 99% snow.
  20. jbenedet
    It’s beginning to look at lot like torchmas…everywhere you gooooo
  21. jbenedet
    Can’t wait to head to Sey’Mours with my leaf blower Clear his 1” —-days and days of brown.
  22. jbenedet
    Good luck.
  23. jbenedet
    CAD without a cold airmass is…. Relatively warm northeast flow. Welcome to life away from your computer.
  24. jbenedet
    The -NAO look some are desperately banking on is also completely absent cold air in southeast Canada. It’s all in the west. And easterly flow is off >45F SST’s. It’s a complete losers bet to expect N to BN during that window. You’ll avoid a torch but still yield +5
  25. jbenedet
    It’s worth recognizing… You’re a fool.. Even with the coldest Ensemble runs of the EPS for that date, it’s still warm. A loser taking a losing bet. Shocker. That incredible warmth is 250 miles away; the deep cold is 2500 miles away…Take your bet… Some critical thinking is worth something.
×
×
  • Create New...