Chris78

Nam at 84 is like the gfs at 384

Any snow is good snow.

Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains

Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences.

The " analysis" is coming from someone with just a handful of posts . Not sure what their Stihck is yet.

I know it's dependant on the low track but damn when it's snowing in Atlanta. Come on. You would think we're getting smoked

Where's WW with his percentage maps of the gefs? He's napping on his job

Been is Smithsburg for over 20 years and yes for sure all those areas do really well. Usually Blue Ridge/ cascade is about 5 degrees cooler than me in Smithsburg.

Ukmet looks in line with most other guidance now. 3 to 5 in the Balt/wash corridor. 6 to 12 to the west. Winchester crew will really like the UKMET

Pretty unusual for the ensembles to have a higher snow output then the operational when focusing in on a particular time frame

I really appreciate your concern for Hagerstown.

I just hate the fact that some seem to get nasty when models aren't showing what they want for their yard. Most of us are here for the love of weather and more so love of snow. With as wide as our subforum is most of our storms are going to have winners and losers unfortunately, but I never ruin someone elses joy in here because I'm on the outside looking in.

I noticed that on the 06z euro at 90. Seemed like it was weaker than the gfs and could of potentially yielded a better outcome for areas further east. It's dangerous to speculate sometimes but didn't look as amped as what the gfs is showing.

Alot of nice hits in there. Alot of nice outcomes for areas further east also. Let's hope the Gfs is to amped and comes back to what most other guidance is showing right now.

Exactly. What we need to root for is a bit different compared to the 95 corridor. I love to see a low hugging the coast line of the eastern sure. Now what the Gfs shows wouldn't be great for us. Probably several inches of snow followed by a driving rain which washes away most of what of had fallen. Hopefully it off by a 100 miles or so.

Would put a huge deform through Central Pa

Eps has more of a northeast movement it appears but the OP's definitely have more of a north to south look.

That's about as perfect as spot as it gets for Northern MD and Central PA.

Agreed. We do need the west trend to stop. We don't want this to trend so far west that it's congrats Detroit. Hard to come back from that as we get under 100 hours. Still plenty of time to adjust to a more favorable low location from where it's at now.

Interested to see if the Euro follows suit with a UKMET solution. Years ago the UKMET used to foreshadow what the Euro was going to show but not sure that's the case anymore.

Can anyone remember a storm track like were seeing on the globals. definitely not a track I can recall any recent previous storms taking. usually with that trajectory out of the Midwest it's congrats Carolinas.

You rang....

Still 12 degrees above 1500' up in the Catoctins of Northern Frederick county at 10am. Going to be a struggle to reach 20 today.

Credit to @losetoa6 for posting this in the central PA forum but this would end up pretty good for us I do believe. Kind of builds off of what it showed at 12z.

Great right up and explanation with illustrations! You put it much more eloquently than I did earlier this afternoon.