Chris78

Still looking good for the Winchester crew

Let's hope it's wrong with the mid levels in about 24 hours.

Your area still looks to be in a decent spot. The euro is on your side with this one. Many times it's dr no. Not this time it seems

Looks like the euro.

Euro looks pretty good for our area. Most aggressive with snow. Snows from about 1pm to 9 pm. Probably some 1" per rates in there during the late afternoon early evening time frame

So many opportunities on the long range gfs. With shortwaves flying everywhere. Definitely looks interesting over the next few weeks.

Icon slightly better. A little heavier rates it seems from the WWA. Just gotta hope that juices up a bit over the next few runs to maximize the thump while we still have mids.

Other than the nam that's what the models are putting out now in general. Sure the models could continue to diminish our snow totals and that wouldn't shock me but it's not crazy to think dc gets 2" snow if they get WAA for 3 or 4 hours.

Icon looks like it would give 4 to 6 hours of snow for the cities and longer out towards @clskinsfan and @WinterWxLuvr

One more Bump west

Lol. Hard to fathom the nam is correct over every other model out there including the Euro. That would be quite the outcome for the entire East coast.

Lol. Hagerstown in the 11 to 16??

Give it time.

Looks like the deform is going to be west/north west of us. Just gotta hope the wwa precip comes in hot and heavy and we max out on that. Obviously the further north into PA the better chance you have to keep 850's but right here on the M/D line I don't think we will be able to hold onto the mid levels.

And the nice thing about the euro is we would go from Heavy snow to dry slot fairly quick. With that track we wouldn't see much rain. Probably some drizzle and then a switch back to light snow/flurries Monday morning.

One thing for sure. This thing is hauling ass.

Nam at 84 is like the gfs at 384

Any snow is good snow.

Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains

Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences.

The " analysis" is coming from someone with just a handful of posts . Not sure what their Stihck is yet.

I know it's dependant on the low track but damn when it's snowing in Atlanta. Come on. You would think we're getting smoked

Where's WW with his percentage maps of the gefs? He's napping on his job

Been is Smithsburg for over 20 years and yes for sure all those areas do really well. Usually Blue Ridge/ cascade is about 5 degrees cooler than me in Smithsburg.