Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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He may be right but he likes to do drive by trolls. Ussually pops in when things look bleak.
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We need the moisture to come in hot and heavy. If that happens I can see our area getting 4 to 8. Basically we need the 1" + QPF totals that some models are showing
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Where's the moisture? There's no thump for western areas. Hagerstown is down to .40 lol. If there was a heavy thump western areas would of been alot better.
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The euro is worse than that for you and me. It's ugly for us
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I think something else to consider is that snow is an anomaly in our area. Alot has to go right for us to get snow. As time get close to the actual event models have more/better data and we bleed the wrong way. Also a common model error is height fields being to far south as you go out in time. It's gotten better over the years but it's still a problem
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I think the Euros superior resolution really shows in marginal events. Euro is better than any other weather model in the world. It's not always right but when it's persistent on a certain outcome ussually other models trend towards it.
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Pretty similar. Just Cut back on precip. The gfs has done that off and on the last couple of days. 1.5 qpf then it will have a run if .75.
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18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event?
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I do think heavier the thump the better off we will be. It's going to be relatively dry so hopefully we can get a decent amount of evaporation cooling.
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Take a look at the MA thread. Psu posted the Low track from the 18z euro. It's a perfect track rainstorm for Balt/ Wash. Just need the gfs temps leading in and we'd be good
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Perfect track rainstorm lol
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I hope your right. I worry its the Euros superior resolution that allowing it to see the temp issues for our area.
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It's slipping away for you and I it seems. Euro just keeps moving further NW every 6 hours. Need it to stop.
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I don't have access to the off run euros. Can you post the 850s for the Gfs and Euro? How big of a spread is it?
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Obviously updated data helps accuracy. I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with technology these days...
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Nam says what storm?
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On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great.
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Keep talking.............
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I would consider it encouraging but everyone has there own interpretation. That's a pretty good indicator that it's going to snow. It may not be the double digit storm that has been shown from time to time but any snow is good snow. This might be the first plowablw snow in these parts in 2 years.
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Going off of the NBM and Euro and GFS ensembles ( I think we can still use ensembles for today) west of the Fall line still has a great chance at a moderate event. Even all the way to 95 probably sees some snow. It may not be the double digit storm that we were all hoping for a few days ago but it still could be decent.
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I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles . Pleasantly surprised to see this.
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Hopefully it was just a blip at 6z but precip cut in half for our areas on both the GFS and Euro. That probably effects temps with not getting the evaporational cooling / wet bulbing we would get from a wall of precip moving in from the Southwest. Fingers crossed the QPF is back at 12z
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Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.
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Let's hope the 6z euro is just off on a tangent and incorrect. That would be a disappointing outcome for places along the M/D line. Kind of surprised after the great 00z runs last night.
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That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hours
