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Chris78

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Everything posted by Chris78

  1. That's my concern lol. Tennessee valley sees snow on Monday. North East gets it next Friday/Saturday. We're in the middle. I think there was some crazy 1400 hour snow maps that kind of looked that way a couple weeks ago.
  2. Looks like they all agree for next Friday but can't agree for Tuesday.
  3. I would lock that shit in right now if I could. 2 to 4 on Tuesday and 3 to 5 on Fri/Sat.
  4. Not sure I've ever seen this much of a difference between euro and gfs at day 4. But not sure I've seen models jump so much run to run within 5 days Lots of moving pieces for the models to nail down.
  5. Looks like the TPV is further SE compared to its 18z run.
  6. Your right. I guess 12z didn't really even have a storm.
  7. Models are definitely having a hard time with all the moving pieces. This might be weenie talk lol but it certainly seems like confiuence always ends up further north than advertised from Day 5+ on the models. Would less confluence give us a better outcome?
  8. Took this from the New England thread. Certainly doesn't look like the OP. Still a bit to Far East but much better than the OP
  9. Euro vs the world. I think I know who wins. Always go with the least snowiest model
  10. Last night's Euro has heart break written all over it for 40 south. Late developing storm that doesn't get its act together till its at our latitude.
  11. The control certainly doesn't look the gfs with the tail end if the trough. GfS much further east with it all. I would say the Control was going to have a storm in the East with that h5. Don't know if it would be a good track for us but plenty of energy left at the end.
  12. 18z gfs. Cutter cutter suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed again then cutter
  13. I agree with your assessment. Good winters find a way to snow. This winter isn't shaping up that way. It's been very tough so far. The next week is cutter city. After that we have a shot. It we miss that then we're looking at late January early February. I believe bwi is still at a trace? Things can change quickly. It just takes 1 well timed storm but so far this isn't the feel of an above average winter.
  14. The only concern I have with suppression is if there's no storm lol. Yesterday's storm was majorly suppressed till inside a week. On its way north we fell into the bullseye for about a day of model runs 5 days out.
  15. Another perfect track rainstorm on the gfs
  16. We're going to have to get through a couple cutters next week. After that there chances.
  17. We need that to be congrats Charlotte until day 4 lol. But in all seriousness I think the 15th - 25th Has alot of promise.
  18. Ensembles are for insuring the OP isn't out to lunch not vice - Versa lol.
  19. Wow. Definitely alot of compaction going on then
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