winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Summer and winter are my favorite seasons. I hate to see summer come to an end. Fall is boring.
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And not only no heat coming, but we're going to continue to see nice airmasses with low humidity at times. After some rain monday night into tuesday, another low humidity airmass comes in mid next week. In the longer range it appears another one will come in next weekend.
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12z HRRR has a nice line of storms for late in the day.
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Had a couple brief heavy downpours here with that last batch. It's over now and I ended up with a total of 0.82". Nice soaking.
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Picked up to heavy for awhile, but now it's tapering off. 0.47" here so far. My vegetable garden is happy. Looks as if the steady rain is about over, but still some scattered activity to the west so we might add some more to the totals.
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0.26 here so far. It tapered down to light rain, but heavier rain in Somerset and Mercer Counties is about to move in. That should get us close to a half inch.
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A nice moderate rain here right now. Decent batch of rain moving in. I agree with you that we should get about a half inch out of this.
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Doesn't look like the big event that yesterday's 12z models showed, but at least RGEM looks decent as you said. Latest HRRR run has heavy rain going across central NJ with our area being on the edge of it. Tough call for this afternoon. I'll be happy if we get a solid half inch like RGEM shows.
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Just looked at all the models after being out since mid afternoon, and wow what a difference from what the 12z models were showing. I see RGEM cut way back too. Hopefully we can at least get a halfway decent soaking if we miss the big amounts, but even that is in question now.
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What a day today. Nice and warm at 87 degrees here, but very comfortable with the dewpoint at 57. A perfect Summer day. A nice soaking tomorrow, and then another perfect Summer day on Friday.
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A couple beautiful days coming up this week (Wednesday and Friday) where dewpoints drop to the high 50s, as we continue this pattern of numerous low humidity days that we've had since the end of July. In between we get a higher humidity day on Thursday with some rain.
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It did and is causing a rain delay at Citi Field, but even at that it was just some moderate rain. The evening part of this event ended up being a bust for most of the area, but we saw that coming. I don't get very excited about a severe threat when it's progged to hit this late at night.
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Just some light rain and breezy as what was left of the line moved in.
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Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected.
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Yep looks as if it's falling apart as it's getting close to our area, just like the HRRR showed. Probably just gonna get some rain.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
What we've seen is a warming climate doesn't necessarily mean we'll get less snow. In the last 15 years we've had a lot of average to well above average snowfall winters. You do have to wonder though if we can keep pulling that off. As the climate continues to warm, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if way below average snowfall winters (like last winter and 19-20) start to happen much more frequently. I also agree with you about this coming winter (not looking good), but long range is hard to predict so I wouldn't give up hope. -
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah even though last winter was close to the worst ever, we haven't done that bad in recent years. And before 2018-19 we had that incredible run of mostly well above average snowfall winters. Hard to complain even though last winter was horrible. -
Yep that's what I said yesterday. I didn't like that the timing of the storms was for night after we lose the daytime heating. I wouldn't expect much tonight, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case. At least we got a decent soaking this morning. I got 0.62" here. Nice watering for the garden so I'm happy.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
And it's not as if we're that far removed from an above average snowfall winter. Last winter was horrible obviously, but NYC got 38.6 inches in the winter of 2020-21. Well above average. One horrendous winter last year isn't enough to make me believe that the situation has gotten so bad that we're never gonna see an above average snowfall winter again. . -
The timing could be later than we want too. RGEM doesn't hit us with the 2nd round until 9pm when we're losing the daytime heating. But at least it looks likely that we'll get plenty of rain between the 2 rounds.
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Even the Euro is dry now for Tuesday. It's looking more likely now that Tuesday's cold pool storms with the UL will stay north of the area. I still wouldn't rule out isolated activity for Tuesday, but Monday is our main event.
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It's definitely going to rain on Monday (one round in the morning and another at night), but he's talking about Tuesday. I see RGEM also doesn't show much activity for Tuesday. We could see another round of storms Tuesday afternoon, but that's a big question mark right now. So he does have hope of it possibly being dry for his event Tuesday. Monday is a different story though. As you said it's an impressive system, and we should get a significant amount of rain between the 2 rounds.
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You keep including Wednesday in the humid/stormy, so I just want to point out that Wednesday is actually going to be a beautiful dry day. A sunny breezy day with a WNW wind and dewpoints dropping to the high 50s. A spectacular day Wednesday, but we should get a good amount of rain Monday into Tuesday as you pointed out.
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The CMC has rain during the morning too. Yeah that could mess up storm chances later in the day, but I'll be happy as long as we get a decent amount of rain Monday. As you said we need it again after a dry week. I watered the garden today because the soil has really dried out. Looks as if we have another chance of storms on Tuesday, and then a beautiful day on Wednesday as we go back to lower humidity.
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But then of course the erratic HRRR model wasn't as impressed on the 12z run. I see RGEM and both NAMs also give us nothing on the 12z runs. SPC did move us into marginal risk and I would say we have a slight chance of seeing something, but I'm not very optimistic. It looks like a very slim chance.
