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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Euro is a couple inches. Good sign, and I bet it will be more robust tonight.
  2. winterwx21
    Funny how it goes. You'd think the UKMET jumping aboard big-time would be a sign that the Euro (which was consistently showing a snowstorm) was really onto something with the snowstorm idea, but then the Euro comes in a miss by a lot. It's never easy trying to figure out potential storms. At least we still have 1 model showing a snowstorm, but the Euro dropping the storm certainly lowers confidence.
  3. winterwx21
    0z UKMET is a significant snowstorm sunday. A good 6 to 8 inches for most of the area. The Euro is not alone.
  4. winterwx21
    Yeah, I miss the old radar so much. The new NWS radar site is horrendous. Sometimes I have to wait forever for it to load. Don't know why they had to change a good thing.
  5. winterwx21
    Changing back to snow here now.
  6. winterwx21
    When I watched the RGEM color loop last night, it showed us changing over to sleet for a couple hours around midday before going back to snow. There have been some hints that we would get a period of sleet, but it shouldn't last too long. It will be going back to heavy snow.
  7. winterwx21
    Nice shift north on the Euro compared to last night. Gets significant snow, close to a foot, up to NYC. Big jackpot for Ocean county NJ with over 20 inches.
  8. winterwx21
    12z UKMET is a huge hit. Over a foot of snow for NYC. Hopefully a good sign that this won't be suppressed. 12z Euro will be interesting.
  9. winterwx21
    Hopefully NAM is correct about getting good snows pretty far north up into CT.
  10. winterwx21
    Yeah this RGEM run gets about 6 inches of snow to NYC, and it's still snowing at the end of the run. Obviously a close call on this run though as the NYC area is near the sharp cutoff.
  11. winterwx21
    You don't have to go all the way down to Atlantic City to get into good snow on tonight's Euro. Northern Ocean county gets 10 inches of snow. Not that far away ... just need a slight north shift on the Euro.
  12. winterwx21
    Euro has NYC on the northern edge. Gets a few inches up to NYC. It's very close, as Monmouth county NJ gets 8 inches and Ocean county close to a foot.
  13. winterwx21
    UKMET has huge snow totals for north-central NJ to NYC. Great run and a good sign that it came back north.
  14. winterwx21
    The timing on the 12z UKMET is a little later, as snow doesn't come in until late sunday night, but it gives NYC a good 8 inches of snow by early tuesday morning. The UKMET is certainly on board now.
  15. winterwx21
    The 18z HRRR sure looks good. 2 to 3 inches of snow for north-central NJ and NYC. Similar to the Euro. Hopefully NAM is off with the warmer solution.
  16. winterwx21
    Euro definitely just came in colder. Gets 2 inches of snow down close to NYC and into north-central NJ now. Would be nice to see a late colder trend today into tonight.
  17. winterwx21
    12z NAM a solid 2 to 2 and a half inches for my area. I'd gladly take that. Long period of light snow from tuesday afternoon to early wednesday morning.
  18. winterwx21
    Euro looks pretty good. A few inches of snow for the NYC area tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.
  19. winterwx21
    Hopefully the 12z GGEM is right about it being a few inches of snow here for midday tuesday.
  20. winterwx21
    GGEM misses us to the south with the first wave of precip monday night, but it actually gives us a decent period of snow for late morning to early afternoon tuesday. Haven't seen a snow map yet, but it looked decent on the color loop.
  21. winterwx21
    NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.
  22. winterwx21
    As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January.
  23. winterwx21
    Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models.
  24. winterwx21
    After the strong cold front comes through next friday, GFS is showing pretty much constant cold temps the rest of the run. If we get a long period of cold temps in mid to late January, odds are high that we'll get snow at some point. Even if it's just a couple of lighter snow events. The important thing is to get the cold in here for an extended period of time to set the stage, and that appears to be on the way. Way too early to worry about the guidance not showing snow threats. Odds are the guidance will pick up on something when we get closer to the cold pattern.
  25. winterwx21
    Long range forecasting is so difficult that it's not worth getting worked up over anything beyond a week. The skill level is just too low to be accurate much beyond a week. Not long ago the long range stuff indicated that early January looked promising, but now it's looking ugly instead. But we saw something similar awhile back when looking at mid December. For awhile the models showed a good period for mid December, but then there was a period of several days where they took it away. However they brought back the good look, and we ended up getting a major snowstorm. Right now early January doesn't look good, but a few days from now we could be looking at something completely different. Who knows. As I said, the long range skill level still isn't very good. It's especially difficult right now because we have blocking, but also an unfavorable Pacific. With mixed signals, the models are gonna have a hard time. So it's really hard to tell what's gonna happen in the first third of January.
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