JKEisMan

Yeah, black is GEFS mean and blue is GFS

Do we still sell.

I’m talking more about inconsistency of the hype, for those who don’t pay that much attention to the weather. One day advisories and hardly a dusting, the next slick roads and snow coming down pretty good and people unaware (again for those who don’t follow the weather closely). Totally agree that people don’t know how to drive. That’s a different problem.

This. Was going to say the same. The snow this morning, which is more in terms of amount and having much more impact than the previous event at least in this part of state, was pretty much unmentioned. Why should people believe forecasts for tonight/tomorrow.

Looks like a dolphin being bit on the tail by a snake.

Getting there.

GEFS plumes for weekend snows into Monday.

This is probably better, rather than the individual stamps. Mass looks to do well. Most of CT skunked.

From the 12z Euro ensemble members, still quite a few that have decent signal for next weekend.

That would get the eastern New England folks’ undies in a bunch. Err. Or maybe us western folks. Good thing it ain’t happening.

Yeah, it’s a shame. Then we’d all be rejoicing with deep snows. Hopefully we can squeeze out some snow...

From WPC's extended discussion this morning: Multiple waves traversing the southeast front combine with the enhanced precipitable water and lift to bring several rounds of widespread and likely heavy rain. Model/ensemble guidance show the strongest signal for heavy rains over the Southeast/Southern Appalachians/eastern Gulf coast. There is a threat of multi-inch rainfall totals in the southeast next week as the blocking ridging channels surges of moisture and lift along the same axis. The Ensemble situational awareness table highlighted this area with "MAX" values per the GEFS QPF relative to the reforecast database, signaling the rarity of the GEFS ensembles to be this wet this far out this time of year (Jan/Feb/Mar). Colder air settled in place on the northern periphery of these low pressure systems offers threats of snow/ice for the Great Lakes, portions of the Ohio Valley, northern Appalachians, and New York/New England.

Is this the Hail Mary reverse psychology play?

I quickly looked through the first 15 members of the 12z run and actually quite a few didn’t look that bad for some substantial snow next week.

yeah, that was an absolute bomb riding up the coast next friday/saturday.

If nothing else, something to track for around mid next week with both the euro and gfs showing some interesting activity. Seems like the big ones always start like this, no?

Was just going to post the same. I usually hang back and observe, but this time I’m with Kevin. I’m cautiously optimistic that in a week’s time or so we’ll all be much happier with this winter.

The EF1 in Patterson, NY ran along the SE edge of a relatively long, flat NW-SE valley (Great Swamp), before lifting off near the label “Putnam Lake” in the attached topo map, and presumably couldn’t progress into the hillier terrain of New Fairfield across the NY-CT border. Thanks for the insight/information. Did some searching about RFD and straight line winds, and found the following link useful: http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2012/08/tornadic-winds-versus-straight-line.html?m=1

Just saw the twitter and blog post. Thanks, Ryan. Great job on covering all this.

Thanks, Ryan. Yeah, it seemed as if they added it on after the fact. If they’d sent a survey team to town, I wonder if they would’ve seen evidence of a tornado given that the confirmed EF1 in Putnam Lake/Patterson was probably hundreds of meters from the western edge of town and the Macroburst seemed to cover the town. Based on the damage I’ve seen in town it definitely looks like it could’ve been a tornado, but I have untrained eyes. Of course, I’m also not versed in the dynamics/transitioning of tornado to macroburst. So basically wondering if trained eyes were there. In the end of course doesn’t really matter, what matters is the tragic loss of life, injuries and damage. Luckily family and friends of mine are all safe.

The original town survey list didn’t include New Fairfield and the survey report from yesterday only referred to Brookfield. Again, even the final report today didn’t refer to actual consultation or survey in New Fairfield, so seem tacked on. Just wondering if they actually went to town - just a question. I realize there are probably limited resources for survey work.

Maybe Ryan or someone else here knows if the NWS actually sent out a survey team to New Fairfield. The public info statement focused on Brookfield yesterday and today’s final report seems to tack New Fairfield on as an afterthought as part of the macroburst, without any mention of consult/survey with local authorities there. They confirmed an EF1 right over the border in Patterson/Putnam Lake, NY (maybe 0.5 mile from the border) and the macroburst to the east. I’ve never seen so many big trees uprooted and tossed and this is the scene all over town, see link from twitter at end. I would have thought it warranted more survey given tragic loss of life, injuries, and damage in town. **removed link as originally twitter feed said it was fine to use, except for ones with faces, of which there were a few**

West edge of the band also seems to be blossoming a bit. Where’s weatherwiz - he should be getting it good in DXR too.

Snow growth in the band in western CT is great as Ryan and others said. Stacking up quickly.