JKEisMan

00z HREF through first 24.

Obscene

NAM snowfall output almost carbon copy of the srefs. Lol

Got it. Thanks. Guess I’m a bit out of date there. I like the ensemble nature but now understand that the models are not state-of-the-art/applicable. That’s opposed to something like the shorter range HREF ensembles, right? (answered my question above, thanks)

SREFs starting to come in range. Lol. Despite looking like it was drawn by my daughter with her (broken) crayons, it shows nicely the 6”+ for all of interior SNE, and the areas (in yellow) of potential 12”+. Also shows lower valley totals. I usually look at plumes to see the spread but this seem an easier region wide depiction - just wish it was higher res (is that available, if anyone knows?).

HREF 24 hr ice accretion.

Yeah, found that odd too.

Albany AFD: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... All models continue the idea of a storm system impacting the region Saturday/Sunday. Although the 00Z model suite has brought little clarity to the situation. The precipitation onset time has come into better agreement with the GFS/ECMWF bringing precipitation into the area Saturday morning into afternoon. The GFS continues to be consistent in its evolution of surface and upper air features bringing the closed low across New York City with the surface low tracking toward Cape Cod. On the other hand, the ECMWF now depicts a more westward and northward solution bring the closed upper level low and its surface feature near or slightly to the west of the CWA. A check of the GEFS ensembles shows that the likelihood of heaviest precipitation (24 hour 1 inch probabilities) would occur across the mid-Hudson Valley northeast into Litchfield and Berkshire Counties. 24 hour 0.5 inch probabilities exceed 50% across the entire region. GEF probability of 2m temps < 273K at 18Z Saturday are zero for Albany and points south. Therein lies the challenge -- What will surface temperatures be during the event? The forecast grids were populated using a GFS top down scenario. Along with the surface temperature forecast, this process yielded a big question mark for valley locations - Rain/Snow/Rain and Snow? The current forecast yields little in the way of Valley snow. Valley temperatures are forecast a few degrees above freezing, so it`s close. In the higher elevations of the Catskills, Helderbergs, Berkshires, southern Green mountains the more likely p-type is snow. An ECMWF track would bring in more warm air aloft and offer the possibility of a storm featuring mixed wintry precipitation -- sleet and freezing rain. In constructing the forecast this ECMWF scenario was not considered. That`s not to say it couldn`t happen. In summary, although we are getting closer to the event, there is still considerable uncertainty in how this storm plays out. We continue to assess.

And here’s the 24 hr href snow map ending 12 utc Saturday.

Href through tomorrow midnight.

Just plug it into mathematica.

Lol

Href also showing few hours of near 2”/hr rates from box to orh to the s and se.

Clearing my Monday meetings now.

Yeah, me too. Pretty psyched about this one.

Feeling good on this one for our neck of the woods?

Is there a gag-and-pass-out emoticon? In all seriousness, just an indication of the best potential so far this winter. If things don’t pan out reasonably well in the next 10 days or so, i think it’s clear this winter is cursed.

Also Albany humping the Sunday night into Monday event as potentially moderate to heavy.

Albany already has them up for Litchfield for 2-4”

For additional fun, the 10 day GEM totals.

Hrefs didn’t quite bite. 2-4 over most of NE with 4-6 SE MA.

Nam can’t be right. How can SW CT jack in this kind of setup.

For full effect:

Will be interesting to see what HREFs have to say at noon, pretty paltry last night. Ryan seems to put alot stock in those.

Two does of snake-bite antidote.