ILSNOW

Measured 8 inches here in Buffalo grove

Dusting

November and during the day!!!!

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

Ricky what are you thoughts?

Chicago NWS thru 6pm Sat

18z Euro is drier and more in line with other models.

Chicago NWS Attention then turns toward the next storm system due to arrive in our region this weekend. Ensemble model guidance remains in agreement that an upper-level wave currently halfway between the states of Hawaii and Washington will come ashore and propagate eastward across the contiguous US on Friday and into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the wave approaches, it may attempt to phase with subtle preceding shortwaves emanating from the remnants of the subtropical jet along the US/Mexico border and a polar wave dropping south out of Canada. The degree of interaction with any of these waves will ultimately influence the eventual evolution of the storm system, which is leading to the usual spread of ensemble outcomes typical for a system 4 days out. Generally speaking, the expectation is for a region of warm- air advection snow to develop across the region early Saturday morning and then to transition to "cold conveyer belt" frontogenesis-driven snow Saturday into Saturday night. Depending on the exact evolution and strength of the system, a warm nose may surge into parts of the area leading to a transition from snow to rain at some point on Saturday. Regardless, the ensemble signal, particularly among the EPS suite, remains strong for our general region to experience impactful snow on Saturday.

AKA Rain Man.

Question BIG IF this storm materializes and the Chicagoland area goes under a winterstorm warning (BIG IF) will this be the 1st time that we have been under 2 warnings before Dec?

12z Icon welcome aboard

12Z Euro says hold on.

Canadian is an easy toss!!

Currently no watches or warning in Wisconsin!!

LOT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense bow will move quickly eastward this evening while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph. Isolated large hail may also occur.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0253.html

Chicago NWS Izzi update Strong instability and strong and strengthening shear profiles will favor supercell development along the dryline this afternoon. Orthogonal nature of the shear vector orientation with respect to the boundary suggests that storms could break off the boundary and potentially remain discrete/semi-descrete supercells as they move across the CWA. Primary threat should be large, potentially destructive hail up to 3" in diameter. Locally damaging downburst winds are also a threat.

Great read from Izzi The forecast shear profiles are very concerning Wed afternoon and evening with 40-50kt of south-southwesterly flow at 925 mb veering to southwesterly at over 100kt at 500mb. This results in very long and exceptionally favorable hodographs for supercells. Very large, cyclonically curved hodographs in the 0-1km layer with mostly streamwise vorticity also would favor the potential for tornadoes, especially given the low LCLs. While the shear profiles are extreme, there remains considerable uncertainty. First, does the forecast magnitude of instability actually materialize as modeled tomorrow afternoon. Second, convergence looks rather weak along the front and it is unclear if it will be enough for convective initiation, assuming sufficient instability. Finally, guidance generally has our CWA in the convergent, right exit region of the strong upper level jet. Ultimately, there are many potential scenarios where we end up with only weak, non-severe convection in the late afternoon/early evening or no convection at all. Unfortunately, given sufficient instability and intense convection develops, the potential would exist for fast moving tornadic supercells, with the potential for strong tornadoes.

From storm prediction center The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight.

Got 0.0 yesterday although I saw about 10 flakes around 9:30 am

Chicago NWS While the strength of this system is expected to begin a weakening trend as it encounters more confluent mid-level flow across the western Great Lakes on Friday, there is concern that the snow could still fall at moderate to heavy rates at times (up to an inch per hour) during the day. This occurs as a band rather potent 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis looks to set up right across northern IL during the late morning and afternoon. Model cross sections across this tightening baroclinic zone depict a rather classic frontogenetical response, with forced ascent right into a layer characterized by negative Theta-E lapse rates (convectively unstable) through the DGZ. This suggests that some narrow heaver bands of snow will certainly be possible, with the most favored location for this being areas from I-80 northward late in the morning through the afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to remain near freezing across far northern IL during the snowfall into Friday afternoon. Accordingly, this raises questions as to the extent of road snow accumulations and hence if any real travel impacts other than reduced visibilities will materialize. Current thinking is that most areas will only see some slushy accumulations on area roads, but in an areas that happen to fall under one of the more intense narrow bands, the snow may fall at a high enough rate to result in some snow covered roads and possible travel impacts. Unfortunately, however, the exact locations in which these narrow intense snow bands setup are very difficult to pinpoint with any degree of skill this far out. At this time, the most favored area for these bands of heavy snow resides north of I-80 in northern IL. The precipitation will come to an end by early Friday evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) look favorable north of I-80. Farther south, (south of I-80) warmer temperatures will limit accumulations, and may even result in any lingering precipitation falling as rain in the afternoon.

Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!!

I would say GFS at 240 plus hrs prolly has hit ratio of 0.0001

the 0.4 over Chicago will!!!!