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TheBudMan

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Posts posted by TheBudMan

  1. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    This BD is forcing very little appreciable cooling impact ..that's for sure.   I mean Bedford MA is 79 F and they are only 10 clicks inland ...  Logan is managing to flirt with 70 on a 15 mph E wind in mid May - that's a bit odd actually.. 

    Meanwhile, we're 80 to 83 up and down Rt 2 west of I495  this hour ...

    Sensibly it is hotter than yesterday despite being located behind this analyzed front https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    Reason? no wind ... I mean the sun is like straight up and down ... almost 72 angle or whatever it's like burning the top of your head just stepping out there.

    Still dry air though.

    Noticing the ridge trying to rollback in next week, though more longitudinal ... Looks like the layout of a Lakes to New England drechio/MCS ...  There's a 570 dm thickness plume ( unlike this dry air ridge this go) skirting along within that ridge bulge, and it gets to about Watertown - Brian - PWM or so ...  and some EML looks like it may have gotten peeled away from the SW in that... 

    Anyway, we may go from mid 80s to low 70s, to mid 80s/72 DP, Saturday thru Wed next week, and with a polar jet just next door over the St L Seaway...  could be a legit severe risk in that Tue-Thur time frame.

    Of course ...all that's predicated on the assumption that these current looks hold.  A couple .. few cycles from now, the ridge may become strong enough to fend it all N, or... not exist as much... in either case... something else -

     

    Tip can post all he wants but any NE Severe ain't for real until King :weenie:@weatherwiz starts honking !!!

    • Haha 1
  2. 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

    Something interesting needs to happen like another severe outbreak somewhere  or an early season tropical cyclone. This pattern is boring me to death. I’ve been reading the book “Five Hundred Years of North American Hurricanes” just to pass the time and get ready for tropical season 

     

     

    I hope George forecasts during hurricane season   that'll be awesome if there's a beast down by the Bahamas 

    • Like 1
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  3. 18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low.  Their snow algorithm is weird at times.  I guess the take home is we may have some winter left.

    Take a week off Jerry then get the muthafukkas ready.  LFG !!!

    • Like 2
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  4. Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week :damage:

     

    Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us.     Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. 

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  5. 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job.

     

    This demands a Jimmy post.   We here at AMWX.com believe Jimmy is the Norlun expert and look forward to his analysis of the upcoming grave situation. 

  6. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

    I wouldn't worry much about suppression IMO. The fact that ridging develops near the coast of western NAMR usually isn't something to whiff, especially with a tad of ridging off the SE coast like the EPS has. Sure some storms may not always hit and whiff....but I don't see this as a "whiff" pattern.

     

    image.png.2da4ec1d6d54d4cad21471d273b7a933.png

    You look at that and you can almost see the kind of coastals we get where they are storms that pound LA/Sierras 3-4 days before reaching the E Coast.   Upper air pattern should be there.   Feel a lot better with a 384 GFS prog that shows us with zilch too.  How many times to we see one of those 384 progs show 48" and we end up with nothing ?  384 hr GFS snowmap #6 on Ray's Fraud Five list ! 

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