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kat5hurricane

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Everything posted by kat5hurricane

  1. kat5hurricane
    The Euro AI has been really consistent as has the UKMET, lets hope they're on to something. The AI has been performing well this winter
  2. kat5hurricane
    The RGEM showing the big thump gives me some hope, and the UKIE as well. I can't much if any stock into what the HRRR and RAP show, they almost always run on the cold side.
  3. kat5hurricane
    As I suspected the NAM isn't backing down, it's been pretty consistent. Whether or not that means it's correct is another story but you can't discount this potential solution.
  4. kat5hurricane
    I never found the HRRR or the RAP to be very accurate so it's just eye candy as far as I'm concerned but still nice to see nevertheless. The NAM has been pretty steady in flooding the area with warm air at the mid levels so I don't see it backing down that much.
  5. kat5hurricane
    Bare Ground here, outside of a random snow patch or two
  6. kat5hurricane
    We only have patches here, I'm near the Throgs Neck bridge and all throughout the town it's the same deal and Bayside as well, I was out and about most of the day. Where in Whitestone are you that you have almost full coverage? Not that I doubt you but it's pretty bare here.
  7. kat5hurricane
    In Brooklyn? I'm surprised. I have virtually nothing here and I'm well north of you in Whitestone, Queens. Either way, we're all getting thumped tomorrow so it'll be fun.
  8. kat5hurricane
    I figured as much so that tempers the excitement for the higher totals a bit but either way even with a lot of sleet this is going to be a high impact storm and this is going to be one of the most wintry looking weeks that we've had in years maybe a decade or so with the snow and ice sticking around for a long time. Kind of '14'15 ish
  9. kat5hurricane
    Is that snow or snow and sleet? Important distinction
  10. kat5hurricane
    First of all, I didn't even know the CMC had ensembles. Second, the CMC has been pretty bearish on this event from the beginning so this is a big surprise.
  11. kat5hurricane
    They keep going lower and lower ever since yesterday as predicted by a lot of us, I still think they might go lower.
  12. kat5hurricane
    VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event.
  13. kat5hurricane
    The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual.
  14. kat5hurricane
    I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think. The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case.
  15. kat5hurricane
    SWFEs usually underperform here at the coast, I never get excited about them. We just better hope that the thump is going to be very heavy because the changeover time seems to get sped up with every set of runs.
  16. kat5hurricane
    Three things that were predictable. The GFS caving, the north trend and that the NWS was way too aggressive with their initial maps. I'd say 6-10" locally but on the lower end of that range probably.
  17. kat5hurricane
    I was going to say this. 18z and 6z are generally pretty wonky, I'd put more stock into the 12z and 0z runs
  18. kat5hurricane
    Upton did the same and I didn't get it. It's always best to start conservative then adjust upwards if needed. People see numbers like those and think it'll be a crippling storm. I know they have a tough job and they know a hell of a lot more than me but it seemed a bit irresponsible to throw out numbers that high IMO.
  19. kat5hurricane
    One thing is for certain, the models are all beefing up the QPF which at the very least is going to strengthen the thump before any mixing. Westchester on North are going to get crushed either way, probably some 18+" totals there.
  20. kat5hurricane
    That's a really big thump on the nam before any mixing
  21. kat5hurricane
    They're going to adjust that downwards almost certainly I'd think, they've already started the process of lowering totals with the new update. I can't see a widespread 12+ outside of the NW burbs
  22. kat5hurricane
    There will still be a nice thump of snow but IMO the bigger story is becoming the sleet. 6-10" of snow with a ton of sleet on top is going to be create big problems in the coming days with the very cold week coming up and it icing up even further.
  23. kat5hurricane
    The trends are pretty clear and it's not colder. This might not be done trending yet
  24. kat5hurricane
    Snow amounts haven't changed much in the 0z suite but the QPF has gone up so it's a lot more sleet. 6-10" of snow and a crapload of sleet is going to create skating rinks all over the tri-state with a frigid week following it. It's going to be treacherous
  25. kat5hurricane
    It sure did, as expected with it sitting on its own.
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