kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused.
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Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.
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Below advisory level is way higher than 30%. When the Euro and ensembles agree that this thing is a whiff the other models are pretty much just noise.
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I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others.
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This is some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least.
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Feeling like spring out there, feels really good, feels rejuvenating. I'll still root for snow when there's something to track but I'm just about done with winter at this point.
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It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.
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I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago.
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It depends on preference. If you're one to prefer persistent snowcover and cold then I don't know how this could be less than a B but if you look purely at snowfall amounts in total then it's been average at best as it's been predominantly cold and dry outside of the big storm and the 2-3 moderate ones.
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There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.
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The cold is unbearable. I'm not somebody that shivers generally but this is legit shiver cold, the wind just makes it absolutely brutal.
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We just had a coating to an inch areawide. Not much but there was a good snow shower last night. We had a 10"-18" storm area wide just two weeks ago, it's not that bad. This has been the best winter in 5 years.
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It's wicked out there. This is as much of a Frozen Tundra look as we'll ever see around here, some of the roads by me are white and not with snow.
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What? We've had deep snowcover for almost two weeks. How often does that happen especially at the coast?
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I'm fine with a miss, these huge snow mountains are causing major disruption and it's not going anywhere anytime soon so I'm fine with not another 6"+ added to the pile. The snow weenie in me is struggling with rooting against this thing but the more practical side of me wants no part of it.
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Uh, we have seen positive trends on the GFS and on the Euro albeit baby steps. The ensembles have a left lean as well. UKMET and CMC less so
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I have that feeling too for the same reasons you mentioned but it's close enough to keep our interest at the very least.
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The GFS is exactly where we want it right now
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There are maybe 2-3 clouds in the sky and it's snowing, wild stuff.
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It's less than 6 days away but I get the caution
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963 is insane. A 968 on the GFS and 963 on the CMC, this is a massive storm signal. Placement is obviously the big question but these are some extreme solutions.
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I cleaned off my car and my spot last night and woke up to 1-2 more inches of snow added to it, didn't see that coming. @ag3how much did you add up last night?
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Generally I would agree but all the models have a big storm in the vicinity and the pattern supports it, plus we're not in fantasy range anymore. Also, there have been a few KU's in the past that were locked in on the models a week out. Of course plenty could still go wrong but it'll be a fun week of tracking at the very least.
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I've been describing to my girlfriend the details of how this last storm was coming together, mid level warming, primary low location, how excited I was about the thump, what a snow weenie is etc. and needless to say she was bored to tears lots of "ok uh huh" and then saying lets just watch the show Nobody Wants This. Yes, the sacrifices we make to make them happy lol Anyway, looks like another week of tracking. What a refreshing winter this has been after like 4 ratters in a row.
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The wind is relentless. I feel like the wind wasn't really talked about much but it's been a big factor. Still sleeting pretty hard.
