Silas Lang

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

.

I like this. Acknowledged the threat and pretty transparent. 2" is a "good" snow for me, so if I can get that, I am satisfied. Of course, more is always welcome! Haha

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

The tailend of a front drapping across the gulf with a wave or energy left behind is historically the #1 way to get a southern snowstorm. Typically happens at the beginning of an arctic outbreak or when the pattern begins to relax (more of an ice threat then), every so often both. Miller As are typically not major deals for middle/west TN. What is not typical is there is usually alot more separation between a dying frontal wave and the cyclogenisis of a follow up wave (so model error may be unusually high with this setup). West/middle TN needs to score with wave #1 fluff bomb (due to very high ratio)...ETN has to rely on wave #2...this is almost like tracking two completely different setups at the same time.

Thanks for this. I hope there is a way we can all score here. Anyone have any recent examples of similar storms? Just want to know what "success" would look like or if it is even possible or likely. 

Anyone have any thoughts on the 18z Euro? I know it doesn't go out far, but curious if it looked better for us. I am not good at reading those vort maps, so I can't really tell. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

RGEM out to 84




.

Man, that looks tasty. Something like that looks like it could nail the whole state pretty well, including Chattanooga. 

I am nervous about that second wave approach that 18z GFS advertised for the East. Would much rather get involved in the initial wave (like the RGEM shows) and go from there. 

I don't know. Euro looks pretty odd. I don't think it will be the ultimate solution, but certainly a possibility I guess. Still, one would have to think that even with limited precipitation, the snow totals would be higher. That is some cold air and will squeeze ever drop out. 

Phew. Looks more and more likely the state will be crippled with cold and some kind of frozen precipitation. How much seems to be the question now. 

Yeah stronger push from the artic air this run. A jog south and east. 

33 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

GFS trending toward EURO. All I care about right now is what the euro does. If we can just increase QPF even .15-.2 across the region you're talking about widespread 7-8"

 

the ceiling is so high with this one. GFS is snow in the single digits. Ratios will be upwards of 20:1

Also, hasn't the Euro been under performing on precipitation this season so far? With this last storm I was projected to get around 1.5 inches of rain and ended up with 2.5. One can only hope that trend continues next week. 

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling.  I knew 0z was gonna be a mess.  A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z.  When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite.  Good trends for all of the forum really.

This is why I was a bit confused at the 0z GFS run yesterday. That super frigid air meeting the warm Gulf has to result in something, right?  

Looks like we are back in business with 0z Euro and 6z GFS. Both seem to string out the moisture a bit. 

I don't know. Maybe this when we lose it, and then it finds a way back. 

Not pretty for East Tennessee. Man, the Canadian looks nice and then just dies. Don't get it either, as unlike the GFS, it seems to have a Gulf low. Models having trouble with energy transfer or something? GFS pops a low off the coast, albeit too late. 

Luckily there is still time and it looks like big changes up high. But not staying up for the Euro. lol 

31 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Truthfully I'd rather TN just be irrelevant. Both in football and basketball losing every game that matters. SMH let's just suck again to not waste my time. 

Fair enough. I am the opposite. I don't follow basketball much, aside from the odd game, but in football, I would much rather be competitive and relevant, even if we don't always win the big ones. For me it's nice going into games knowing we at least stand a chance. Heupel has been great at UT. Excited for the Nico era! 

Oof, the 18z GFS. Is this essentially the part where we lose the storm? Timing is about right. 

Interesting changes today. Almost feels like the models/ensembles want to give us snow, but still don't know exactly how it will happen, if that makes sense. 

16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That's definitely an interesting look at H5 on the control, and that is after the front has washed out. 

What does this look imply? Sorry not good at reading these maps. 

37 now and saw some flakes, though rain is probably mixed in. Hard to tell due to the wind and small size.

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Is the tri cities really getting left out?

I hope not,but having lived up there for several years, it can definitely get the short end in these scenarios. On the flip side, they can sometimes score when no one else can. They are overdue for that honestly. 

Canadian looks almost identical to GFS. Now we need the Euro...

40 and looks like rain here in Fountain City. 

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Not something we deal with much. I know the Christmas 2020 system was highly localized. I had around 6” in Halls but 10 min west of me in Powell had 2”. A friend in deep W Knoxville had almost 6”. My in laws in Union County, about 15 min away had an inch or so.


.

Yeah,my folks in Anderson County had about 1.5 inches. We stayed over for Christmas and driving back it was weird seeing it get snowier as we went east. Pretty tight gradient. I had about 5 inches in Fountain City. 

35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

In a anafrontal system, is their elements that can enhance qpf that the mods don’t pickup on? NW flow, steep lapse rates, low level moisture, etc….? I’m assuming it could be rationed higher from cold 850’s?


.

Didn't see this, but pretty much what I was wondering as well. 

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

I will take 3-6” anytime any day in the winter. So many not happy it’s not showing a foot.  Not here just other places.   That amount with the temps will be bad enough.  It won’t melt.  If we get a lot more then it will cripple the area with the temps coming behind it. 

Agreed. And I think it's important to match expectations with location. Living in the central valley, if I can get 2 inches, I am content. Everything else is gravy. 

Which speaking of totals, I was looking at upper air temps and temps ( on the GFS) and it will be really cold. I assume this stuff will be very high ratio? Shouldn't take a lot of moisture if that's the case, and could easily over perform. 

Snow or no snow, models seem in agreement that it will be COLD next week. 

Also, as an aside, this is probably the most fun I have had tracking since the March snow in 22. Been too long, gents. This winter has already been more interesting than last year even if it doesn't pan out. lol 

1 minute ago, BNAwx said:

WAAAY too much time left to get attached to any solution.  This is about the time models do indeed get wonky with systems or lose them altogether.  Any scenario is in the table right now.  The only thing I can comfortably say is it’s gonna get chilly.

Yeah the cold definitely seems to be coming regardless. Hope it ain't with a bunch of ice. Would be a mess for days if that was the case.