bwt3650

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The little event for Wednesday and Thursday is looking slightly more potent on the latest mesoscale runs (to me at least). Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches of dust? Hell, PF just got 4”+ from a radar glitch so why not?

Gfs showing the upslope late week up here so I guess that’s a good sign if a global is picking up on it.

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My wife just measured "about 4 inches" (take that with a grain of salt from her) at 750ft ha.

Looks like at 7am the Lower Village came in with 2.9" on 0.18" water.

Still nothing at 1,500ft. 

Lol at wife measuring the snow... I’ll ask my wife when I’m back in jersey and she’s still up at jay and I’ll get “you’re such a tool”...then she’ll send me this half ass measurement from the sidewalk and I’ll ask her if she can try a better spot.  

15 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Unless DEC 2015 comes walking through that door, no one has less worry than you in pretty much any subforum on AmWx east of the Mississippi .

Obliviously cutters still cut and suck for everyone and for base building, just hope there is no AK PIG.

100 percent..but you know how it is early season when you are just watching for something big to get some major terrain expansion going.  Last year being cut short in mid March makes me really itch for some of my favorite runs.  We probably had 6-7 weeks of the season left if there were no prolonged torches..but point taken; if it’s mid Jan and I’m worrying about snow, we are all probably in a world of sh*t snow season wise.

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It does work for sure.... even in SNE that last storm was said to be a 100 to 1 chance hail mary with the "better pattern coming up behind it" and people starting to worry a bit.  There are definitely several cases of anxiety and worry then leading to a big event out of the blue.

You'll get it... I always go with climo.  Sooner or later it happens.  But I also bet you've had snow cover (even if just 2") up there at Jay more than anyone else on the forum since like October if you were to tally it up. It just hasn't been able to stick around yet.  Hopefully the GFS's two cutters don't come to pass in the longer term.

Yeah, inch for inch I would guess we are about normal.  Maybe someone has the data, but there have been plenty of days with snow in the air.  The 10 days leading up to thanksgiving were pretty solid, but it all washed away that Wednesday and the biggest single total was probably that early upslope event that was just too early in the season. We have “cover” now, but I wouldn’t call it a pack.  I’m not worried, but do have to admit that I would like to get a solid event out of the way to start building the pack and get some help getting terrain open.  Jay just doesn’t have the fire power to blow their way to a big terrain expansion.  And those cutters in the long range make me nervous of losing anything we might start.  We need one of those to break for up here.  Once to January, above normal temps are fine because the averages are so low, as long as we don’t get dews in the 40s with rain and fog.  So I guess not nervous or complaining, but maybe anxious.  

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jay Peak area.  Either the base area village and nearby.  There’s a neighborhood called Alpine Heaven near there that is easily one of the snowiest spots in New England inch for inch.

Still waiting for that this year...need a solid event to get things rolling.  I need to start getting the Phin anxiety.  It just got him a foot and a half. 

Sloppy Snow here at 1900’.

6-8 up here?  I’m guessing not all that is from the storm or includes today, as it looks like I’m a little bit too far west, though the 3k has close to that.  Phin is the big winner.  Lets see if he can keep this pack until April.

50 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Could be a NNE forum divider for sure, although Maine needs this one. I could end up on the outside looking in if this keeps sliding east. 

You're looking good for your first true snow up there.  Enjoy man...hopefully PF and my area can score some up-slope scraps after this thing passes. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I love a good melt in the NNE thread.

just wait til the Christmas eve rainstorm at Jay and Stowe with Phin Kayaking down his front lawn.

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has been very rough for the ski areas... just busting your balls .  We were closed today, never happens at Stowe!  It probably had some to do with a COVID season and not worth exposing people to any contact with this product, but we probably should've been closing on these days in the past anyway.  It was always a pride thing to never shut down, even in the worst weather.

Good for the reputation to get open and stay open, but honestly, from a business perspective this year, there is zero to gain.  They are not selling a day pass and the season pass holders are not even spending a couple bucks on food and alcohol this year.  

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, I realize I am a weenie but the weather has been putrid for the ski places as well. Hopefully that changes next week, but an inland runner this weekend wouldn’t help, even with a couple inches of fluff on the backside. It needs to be colder and for longer. 

We are all weenies, so you're not alone.  I do feel what you are saying tho; walking out to the one lift spinning through grass and mud the day after Thanksgiving is not what I dreamt about all summer.  I'm just trying to stay optimistic and let the averages play out.  Where you and I come from, if you waste a couple coastals and a two week cold period, your winter might be done.  I just think once we get some pack going and the cold sets in, we will feel better about this year and the NNE winter will do its thing...

The overall snow numbers have been decent up here, but it def has that slow start feel when you are in December, and we have mountains closed and probably looking at only a few trails into early next week.  I'm not worried though, elevation should do it's thing even in the marginal setups now and we could be rolling in ten days or so.

Agree...There's decent chances for the Northern Greens in the next 10 days but I wouldn't want to be a resort in the Catskills or Poconos right now where theres no margin for error.  I think things will be rolling by mid-month up our way.  Shitty start though.  Most years I would think everyone would want to get off to a big early season start to peak interest in the season and cash in on the demand, but this year, who knows.  With reduced capacity, I think as soon as conditions get right, the demand will be there.

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah we got like twice as much rain as it looked like we’d get too... with dews, high winds, and now it’s just rotting wet snow where it’s left.

right decision to close today...save whats out there and get the guns in position.  I'm shocked Mt. Snow is open.

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I just saw our dew point hit 56F overnight.  Yikes.

60/51 currently.

1.46” for water.

This was a gut-punch to New England Ski resorts.  I just checked out the Hunter Mountain Cam.  That place looks like the late may melt with random grey piles.  We should recover by next week in this pattern and with some upslope love, but man, even a top notch snow making system like they have has its work cut out.  They will be able to blow again in a day or two, but its not like wet bulbs in the mid teens are forecast for days on end either down there.

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

About 10 years ago, I tried to get it down to $5 per trip to Wachusett for myself.  I think the pass was $200 and I got on the hill for about 43 days or so... I don't recall.  I am Mr. Cheap regarding skiing...    I try to get deals and go to the smaller mountains more than the larger ones.    

We did get $69 Loon tickets last year at the Ski Expo including the bus ride... but prob won't do that again

Indy pass gets people to some legit mountains for a reasonable price if you have the ability and desire to drive to different resorts.  If you just do the two days each at Cannon, Jay, and Magic, you are down to $33 a day with some other smaller hills left.  And thats $33 a day skiing real deal vertical and terrain.  

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

That myth surrounds a lot of recreational activities.  You can make them as expensive as you want.  I golf using irons I've had for  nearly 15 years.  I snowmobile with sleds that are 8-12 years old and I volunteer and get free trail passes.  I know a lot of otherwise retired guys who get jobs at Sugarbush in the winter for the skiing.  All of these things can be expensive if you have the latest and greatest technology or have to travel long ways to partake in things.  Like you said, there are ways to make things affordable

Exactly..Very few recreational activities that don't involve some sort of expense...Fishing, hunting, playing hockey.  The initial expenditure to get into the activity is always going to be high and after that, you can make it as expensive as you want.  I think the skiing myth is due to the twice a year, megalopolis family.  If you have three kids who don't ski regularly, and you are doing two weekends a year with no passes, yes, it is extremely expensive.  5 lift tix, 5 rentals, lessons for the kids, food, gas etc.  Easily over a thousand dollars.  But if you are a regular skier, who buys a pass and uses the hell out of it, you have your own equipment, your kids don't need lessons and you skip the five $8 lattes on the way up and the $12 order of chicken fingers in the lodge, its no more expensive than any other activity.  Living nearby a ski resort, there is very little additional expense once you buy the pass.  I think the social aspect of it is where you can rack up the dollars.

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was a serviceable run through Day 10.  Lots of mess-scale snow chances in the upslope areas.  I feel like any snow we get in the next 7-10 days though is going to be of that nature over synoptic snow.

 

10-15 and snow making temps gets us some serviceable terrain and in the glades

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

The folks on the board often discuss it, but SNE had a ridiculous run of winters there for a while.  I think I remember someone from CT pointing out a few seasons back how he hadn’t had a below average snowfall winter in perhaps a decade?  It was something crazy along those lines.  That may have given a bit of an inflated perspective on the snowfall climate, but I’m not sure.  Coastal, south of Boston recorded 128” back in 2014-2015, which has got to be what… more than double the average annual snowfall there? Maybe close to triple?  You’d think things would have to be lined up perfectly for that sort of magic, and I don’t suspect that can happen every year.  Up here, I’m sure everyone would love to see Mansfield pull off a season like that with triple its annual snowfall average.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen with that second potential storm in the modeling, since it’s still pretty far out there, but whether something like that affects the area or not, those backside snows are still in the game… or maybe the equivalent.  The latest run of the GFS doesn’t have much of a second storm affecting this area, but there’s plenty of snow on there.  Check out that bread and butter (I guess northern stream?) potential behind it.  If you put a clown map to it that would be feet of snow for the local mountains by mid-month.  That sounds like a lot, but actually, it’s probably just average.  I’m sure PF has the numbers, but if we average 3+ feet here at our site, Mansfield should probably be averaging something like 6 feet for the month of December anyway.

And that's what I love about up here.  Yeah, it would be great to get a big synoptic event with a high water content to put down a solid base on the natural trails, but it seems like up here, with every threat comes the potential for that backside cold shot bringing the up-slope.  I forgot which one of you reminded me, the northern greens don't move, so when that upper level pattern can be forecast several days out, we can have more confidence in getting some decent snows, rather than living and dying with each model run.  I may be different that some folks who just love the big event that you track for days with the highs and lows of 1 am model runs, but I'll take the consistent powder days all winter long over the blockbuster.  Hopefully, that gfs run that shows a few days of up-slope magic and below freezing highs gets some terrain open next week.  We saw some on and off mixed precip yesterday, but nothing but grass outside right now.

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s horrible looking. What he hell happened to that NE magic? It’s just as pathetic in NE now as in MD. LOL

Patience...We will get our snow.  Too much elevation when deep winter kicks in not to.  Plus, there is the up-slope insurance where you and I are.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Had to go up above 2,500ft to find some actual winter over white rain or wet parachutes on top of mud at 1,500ft.

Picked up 2" at 3,300ft stake this afternoon.  The world looks so much better with snow around.  Below 2,000ft looks like Maryland in February after a rainstorm.

Going to look even better when those boulders are hidden in a few weeks.

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

lol at GFS, one can dream

Because both have a 95 percent accuracy 200 plus hours out?

Opening day.  Snow was in great shape considering the temps.  Felt great to be back on snow.

54 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

3 runs in.. Conditions pretty typical early season at Mt Snow but not horrible.

North face looks empty.

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he’s on the wrong side of Pinkham notch for upslope. 

The synoptic stuff will come though. Some years there’s a couple good ones in November but other years it seems like you’re waiting and then all of the sudden you get destroyed by several in a row in December.  

Upslope seems to have been the majority of the snow here so far.  Totals have been solid, it just seems we are a little early to maintain it.