bwt3650

I was hoping a flip to heavy wet snow with some upslope this weekend/early next week could save it for a bit, but yeah, it’s looking bad.  I could see not being able to fix the lower run outs to the lifts at lower elevations enough being an issue.  Would be nice if mon or thurs trended colder to buy us some time.

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

What part hasn’t? If you are familiar with the mountain and “mountain-speak” you will know the last two years there have been horrendous.

You are answering a question with a question...What part do you think was horrendous?  Look, I don't work for vail or Mt. Snow or anything, and quite frankly, Mt. Snow is not even in my top 3 in Vermont.  It's close by when I'm not up North, they blow a ton of snow, and the North Face can be decent to get some laps in.  But you post things like "vail sucks" and "Mt snow is horrendous" and don't say why.  I will say Vail customer service sucked this year.  You couldn't get anyone to talk to, they lost passes, and they were clearly understaffed.  But that's the call center stuff. I've been to Mt. Snow under peak and Vail and I didn't notice anything that was" horrendous" in comparison this year, especially considering Covid stuff.

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM looks really close to being a rate-driven wet snow bomb here for next week.

Give us something to fix today and tmrw.  Above 1500 feet works for me.

The snow on Superstar will last no matter how warm it gets.  Here is Superstar on July 6th Last year, still with a tiny little patch of snow hanging on.  Pretty amazing that trail has at least some snow on it for every month of the year except August and September.

12 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Stay far away from Epic. Vail Resorts is a disaster. Mount Snow had been horrendous last couple of years and generally anything Vail touches they turn to crap. Obviously dependent on your proximity, but Ikon a much better pass. 

What part of Mount Snow has been horrendous?  It has always had issues with crowds due to it's proximity.  I haven't noticed them blowing less snow or cutting corners on the Mountain.  In fact, I think they open earlier now then pre vail and peak.  If you are judging by this year, I think that's a mistake because it was crowded everywhere to some extend.  Maybe they could have run the Grand Summit Express more often to help with lines at the Bluebird, but other than that, I don't think Vail did anything to make it horrendous.  Now, if you are talking customer service or trying to get someone on the phone to deal with the passes, that's a different story.  But I think Mt. Snow was the same as it has always been.

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it would be tough if your only option was weekends.  Definitely didn’t see that 20% price drop coming.  They are going to put the squeeze on.  Even Wall Street didn’t know what to do with that news as people couldn’t figure out how it would lead to more revenue by slashing prices 20%.

I think it’s also viewed as a credit from this season to retain people... sort of like what @bwt3650’s thought process is.

Overall I still think it’s largely good for the industry as far as making skiing more accessible to more people.  The overflow will land at the Indy ski areas (like @Angus) and drive revenue towards them while keeping a fresh supply of newbies coming into cheap passes.  Also drives the entire market down though, which can be tough for some Indys.

I think its a smart move.  Wall street didn't like it, but the stock is almost a double since last year so easy excuse to sell.  In my opinion, it's a bet on a return to normal and get as many bodies to the resort as possible, so they all spend on lessons, rentals, food, lodging etc.  That's the categories that were way down and that's where the $$ is made.

As far as passes go, obviously, the family does jay season passes but I also usually do another multi-pass.  During a normal year, I'll day trip to Vermont and then hit Stowe a few times when I'm up North.  I usually don't ski weekends except for at Jay, so I get the weekend crowd arguments at epic resorts.  Lines were long everywhere this year and I have to think a lot of that was the lift restrictions.  It wasn't just Stowe or the epics.  K-mart was the same at the Gondola; they just have more room to spread out on the mountain.  But when you run an 8 person gondola with singles or a six pack with 2, that's going to happen.  If I had to pick three in Vt outside of Jay, it's sugarbush, Killington and Stowe, so no way to get everything.  I think that going epic for that cheap, and then maybe doing that Vermont 4 pack thing and just looking for a midweek deal if I want to hit K-mart again makes the most sense and gets me the most variety.  Though I love sugarbush, I know in reality it's too far to make it there a bunch of times.  The Vt four pack thing also lets me hit a magic or a Bolton or Smuggs too for like 179, which is cool.  

Bold move by epic...was seriously considering switching to ikon, but for $359 midweek vs. $729, I think they got me.  

3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

PF is the expert on this, but having some rain and warmth is a normal part of the spring ski season around here.  In terms of effects on the snow, there’s really no comparison when it comes to getting rain in late March or April to rains and warmth at Christmas – this is an entirely different type of snowpack.

Whether it’s typical spring rains, or typical spring warmth, the trails with marginal coverage are going to be getting thin in either case.  The only way that process is going to be slowed for the lower elevations as we move toward April is with below average temperatures.

If a resort around here has its season ended by a spring rainstorm, then they either have to be a resort that is running 100% on natural snow, or that’s the approximate planned closing date for the resort anyway.  These resorts aren’t just guessing when it comes to how much snow they put down on their trails – they put down a required amount of snow to hit their target date with appropriate coverage under normal New England spring weather.  In all my years of skiing, I’ve just never seen the resorts that plan to stay open get shut down around here due to spring rains.

I’d be much more worried about snowpack loss if we had a week of early heat like we did that one season – that really seemed to make a substantial dent in the snowpack that spring.

Hopefully PF will weigh in, since he’s in mountain operations and knows what they watch for with regard to the spring snowpack progression.

J-Spin...always spewing the facts and climatology to counteract our wennie emotion...NNE will be fine...poconos, Catskills and Mass will struggle to get through this week, but I think April 1 is the goal anyway...anything past that is gravy.

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For me, maybe we listen to the “slippery slope” gang a little more now. This all started with “15 days to slow the spread.” Sometimes the conspiracy theories are true. 

aren't we coming up on the one year anniversary of 15 days to slow the spread? haha... Anyway, back to skiing...Prime spring skiing the next few days and next weekend/early week is looking more promising...I think at your elevation, you should bump up your totals in the next 10-14 days and maybe, I get some powder next week.

After all these years, we made the flu disappear....In all seriousness, I don't think there's an argument that increased hygiene helped, but I do think we should be careful with messing with nature and our bodies immune systems.  Not sure how true it is, but I remember the old tale that it wasn't a bad thing when your toddlers get exposed to all kinds of colds and stuff to build immunity...

and Stowe was fine with the mask stuff.  I'm was on board with the mask in the congested areas, lifts, lodges etc and everyone besides the "I'm going to prove a point people" were good about it...Whether I believe it is necessary or not,  just do it so it doesn't get shut down was my thinking...I think it's ridiculous to give someone a hard time about taking their mask down while ripping through the woods, tho....and the wearing the mask while  driving solo in your own car is a bit much, but whatever; it doesn't affect me.

ehh, a couple two day rain events in the 50s puts an end to a lot of the northeast ski resorts.  It's late; I know...I'm just being spoiled and hoping to go into closing weekend in early May with more than just Superstar and the Jet.  Couple years ago, there was a handful of glades and a dozen or so trails.

and is that the synoptic snow bomb we have been waiting weeks for early next week on the gfs?  If only...

Man, I haven't seen such consistency 7-10 days out for an all out ragging rain storm up here since the grinch.  Not saying Friday will be the same, but every model seems to have locked into a soaking rain Friday.  Going to put a big dent in the ski season if it happens that way.  The following week looks like there's more chances for something other than rain, but by then we are really out in clown range.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are a really strong union

And apparently more knowledgeable than the cdc and WHO...such a waste of medical expertise in organized labor.

6 hours ago, mreaves said:

The fact that we got that heavy, wet snow to establish a base after the grinch storm and it never thawed was way salvaged the season for us. Further east, where they got screwed, never really recovered. 

Absolutely...That was the game changing event this season for the northern greens.  Without that storm cycle (MLKish I think) the ski season is completely different up here.  That was the storm that got the woods in play here.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In person vs virtual being better is different depending on the student and the implementation.  For most kids it (virtual) isn’t as good.  
This has also widened the gap between haves and have nots in many cases 

Valid points...the option to attend full time in person should be there, though.  And yes, the socioeconomic aspect is an additional piece of all of this.

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As cases continue to rise everywhere . Varients gone wild 

The data is clear that schools are not the cause of spread, teachers who wish to be, will be vaccinated by fall, the vaccines are working against variants, and the 7 day average cases are down from a high of 200,000 a day to about 50,000.  I've yet to hear an expert in the field say that in person learning is not far superior to virtual and it's been a YEAR of virtual.  Schools can and should reopen safely.  

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For my school the remote kids have a separate group of teachers.  For my wife, they watch her teach from home while she is with the kids in person. 
 

I’ve been enjoying doing hands on labs with my students since February.  Lots of adjusting and retooling. But getting it done. 
 

It’s sad how many kids who are supposed to come into the building stay home and do nothing. That’s on the parents 

They zone out on the computers and its not like in class where a teacher can catch them and tell them to pay attention....My wife just went through my 2nd graders school computer and we found he was searching youtube, robox, and other crap during school time.  He lost internet use for two weeks.  Don't tell me that other kids aren't doing the same thing.  The poor kindergarten teacher spends half the time just trying to get the kids to focus and solve computer problems.  This doesn't even address the social interaction they are missing, as well as the hands on learning like you are describing.  Kids remember good teachers and the things they teach for the rest of their lives.  And I'm sure good teachers are missing the interaction with kids. We have learned that we can do in person learning safely.   It's just not the same behind a screen. Period.

New cdc guidance should be a game changer for schools to reopen fully.  Teachers vaccinated and new guidance means there should be no excuse not to have kids in school, full time, by next fall at the latest.  

Blowing snow other than superstar on March 19th with a week of 50s ahead is pretty impressive.

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah March is going to kill it.  It was on pace for above normal here even into like late February I think.  BTV was pacing on normal or above normal until March 1st.

Still out of the last decade it's better than 2011-12 and 15-16 for sure.... and had one of the longest durations without a thaw/rain for skiing than I can remember, with decent snowfall where people live around here.

 

 

Unfortunately, I think its going to be struggle to go deep into April though with the lack of recent snow.  Next week and those cutters are going to hurt.

Na, I think we agree completely about the skiing.  Good mid-winter, very few thaw/freeze cycles and the powder held in the woods well this year.  It is snow depth, not totals.  I think for me its more that I'm surprised that it didn't "feel" as low as the depths and totals were.  If you asked the average ski/boarder who's not a snow weenie, I think they would never have known the depth was near a 25 year low.  And where I am, if there is decent pack preservation, I don't think you notice the difference between 250" and 350".  There was a solid 36" base for weeks, even at my place at 1850.

I was just looking at the Mt. Mansfield snow stake date.  I didn't realize how much of a ratter snow total wise this year has been.  It def felt like a decent 6 week winter period right when it should be, but if you look at the data, besides 15-16, there really hasn't been a worse year snow total wise in the last 25 or so years.

On 3/18/2021 at 5:14 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Damn wish I knew you were going. Stay away on vacation weeks holidays , learn the NH Maine school vacations, ski mid week . Use Barker Lodge parking as your base after you get tickets, take second left off the access road after the Grand summit road or right if you get your tickets at South Ridge ( sign says Brookside Condos keep following road to Barker Lodge) Stay away from Barker Chair from 10 to 2. Go all the way skiers right ( left going up chairlifts) in the morning.  Ski White Heat chair runs then work your way to Tempest chair, ski that area, then go left down Cascades to Barker chair and ski left until you hit Grand Rapids to North Peak chair. That area is a blast, take Paradigm off North Peak to the Aurora chair, couple nice runs there. Then take lefts to Jordan bowl runs then ski back to Barker by Kansas run. Hit Barker and Spruce chairs for the afternoon.  Believe me its a helluva lot better when you know the mountain. Covid year with lots of WFH people kids out of school.  Obviously zoom school is the worst invention ever for mid week skiers lol. Give it another shot on a Tuesday . DM me  anytime, I skied there for 30 plus years and can answer any questions you have.

Need to save this for next year when a venture over there...never been.  Heard they have decent snowmaking.  Is it decent by Jan there?

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

What was it like this time last year? I wasn't around then. Washout and no snow?

It definitely has been a great ski season after Grinch through this week. Very few bad condition days, and we have been skiing 4-5 days a week the entire time so I have been out a lot.

Last year at Jay it was shut down a few days earlier but the weather had already turned to crap.  The last few days of Feb saw the best storm cycle of the season with about 36" but by this time, there had been a rainer or two and then a flash freeze.  Shutdown weekend was bad conditions and I think there would have been a bad couple weeks after that before it started snowing again if I remember.

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This is pretty accurate. Alex is not doing any better than anyone else, his totals are below mine by a bit right now as he underperformed in the east-flow synoptic events that hit Randolph pretty well.

Some of the southern and central VT totals are pretty good, but they are inflated by the 36-40" some spots received in the mid-December event. Take that away and it was a pretty pedestrian snow year in several locales. I may not have the full story there, I am not as familiar with the climo over there. Maybe they are around normal even without the big dump.

I believe J. Spin is closest to average at this point, but to be honest his weather seems to be much more decoupled from the overall pattern than is the case for the rest of us. It just snows there on schedule because of topography and the calendar date it seems. He appears to need even less synoptic help than Mt. Mansfield to reach average. I am not sure about Jay. Maybe they are near average now. I doubt it just based on posts here and their lofty average.

It was still a good winter here, but there is zero doubt from a snowfall perspective Feb and March have been well off the mark across the majority of NNE.

Retention is a different matter, that was good in Feb, behind in March with very little progress being made since the start of Feb in adding pack. Just maintaining until recently when it became clear it was a losing battle against the solar input.

Bretton Woods has reported 110" last I checked. The Randolph Hill observer near me has reported 130.5" so far with very little on the horizon.

A+ winter for me compared to MD, obviously. But I assuming the regulars here will give grades ranging from F from someone like @dryslot or @Lava Rock to maybe a B or similar for J. Spin.

We are below average...Like you, retention has been decent and there was a great long stretch of no warm ups/cutters so the mid Jan through early March Ski season was average to above average while the snow totals were below in my opinion.