bwt3650

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is that your experience (just curious)?  When did you start your company?

I never look at it as adult party time (not my style, I'd rather converse with strangers on a weather forum on a Friday night I guess)... but I'll be honest my life picture probably looked like a country song lyrics lol.  I just need a place to live, someone to share life with, a dog, and I value being able to spend a considerable amount of time outside in the mountains above most else.  Maybe I was brainwashed by the "do what you love" bullshit but I definitely made my defining decision after college when a long time girlfriend and I had finished with Economics and Accounting degrees, but she was moving back to Boston to work in a bank and I just couldn't do it.  I used to post on these boards from the North Shore of Mass back in like 2006 at times, lol.  Ended up splitting up and I stayed in VT, got into marketing at a ski resort, skied 100 days a year for a decade, and sort of followed the path from there.

I never saw myself in a 4,000 square foot house wearing a suit and tie (college girlfriend definitely did), but that's probably classic for this generation who was told to avoid the rat race and go for peace of mind.  I figure I'm doing all the activities in the mountains on the daily that my body may not be able to do whenever retirement would come, ha.

Having kids was the best decision I ever made.   My oldest is 8 now and its funny how much they turn out like you.  His biggest passions are weather and skiing (specifically, hurricane tracking).  Its so funny when he shows me an "area of interest" on his weather app and gets exited like when I hear about a -epo..  I never pushed him into anything, but its like at that age, they just want to be like you.  Coolest feeling in the world and I know a time will come when they go through that age where they want nothing to do with me, but I'll soak it all up for now.  Don't get me wrong, the three of them can be little assholes at time, and the parents that say their kids aren't are lying, but cant we all.  You can live the life you want without the suit and tie, picket fence and all the bs that goes along with it and still have kids.  You just have to make time for the important stuff...and you have to be ready.  I def was not in my later 20s.

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Vermont seemed to finally break thru their Covid Inversion 

Wonder what they will do shortly to address that and what it will mean for resorts / skiing . Maybe they do nothing

I will ponder that from the Von Trapp lodge Saturday 

I bet that county map would have many in-state counties higher than the neighboring state's counties due to population ratios in the next couple weeks if they had stuck with it.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I said it in the skiing thread a while back but I’m going to wait out the first few weeks and see how the ski mountains operate. Not that I usually ski on icy ribbons of death anyway in early December....

If we have a fast start though with a lot of natural snow then it will be tempting. 

Minus the after ski bar hopping, which can be controlled, there really aren't many safer activities.  People need to find some enjoyment and they will.  Better to be outdoors than in.  This weeks looks like a good window to pound out the man made.  

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The amount of effort put in by our custodial staff, admins, support staff and teacher, on a budget of close to zero, to make our building as safe as possible has been astounding.   I understand it is hard for a lot of kids and parents to accept the way it has been set up, the new rules etc. but if we are going to stay open we have to follow state and CDC guidelines as much as possible    I’m trying to make it fun and close to normal but damn it is hard. And the crap thrown at us by much of the public has been reprehensible.  We are not the ones closing the schools or writing the mandates.  Local elected school boards and health officials determine that 

I think much of the "blame the teachers" is a knee jerk reaction to frustration.  Locally, there was a small group of teachers (mostly union reps) right before school was going to start who went into a busy downtown to protest the openings and march in the middle of the street.  Honestly, it left a bad taste to a lot of people and I think it was a mistake.  But we shouldn't group a whole profession by a few, whether you agree or disagree.  What I have seen personally is many teachers, including all three who teach my kids, busting their asses trying to make things work and showing more patience than I probably could.  Most teachers are showing right now that they took the job because they really care.  We should focus the frustration toward the real decision makers, who are often influenced by the few, instead of blaming all teachers.

I mentioned yesterday that the only position I will take on this so that there is no political implications is that we cannot keep kids out of school indefinitely.  So much damage has been done to them already and while many can adjust to virtual, there are so many who are suffering.  Say what you want about bars restaurants retail etc. (there are reasonable arguments for both keeping them open and limiting them and people can disagree) but Schools are an ESSENTIAL business.  We can find a way to operate Walmart, Home Depot etc., we must find a way to operate schools safely.  

Looks like some upslope late weekend, early next week.  Also maybe the coldest night of the season so far.  In a sea of warmth, it looks like the mountains will get a good window to blow like crazy next week.  Might be able to go 24/7 for most of the week.  I can imagine the prep going on this weekend to be ready to really hit it hard and make up for the last two weeks.  

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Our District did a phased in opening which started a few weeks back.  My daughter is still at home since she's a senior and the last cohort to go back.  She starts December 7th.  All teachers have been teaching from the classroom since day 1 though.  The workload is back to as if they were in class so she's definitely busy, and learning, which is a plus.  I feel for families with younger kids who have to work.  No idea how that gets accomplished if you have to go to work and schools are remote.  It's a mess. 

My wife works from home full time and I literally spend half the day saying “shh, mom is on a zoom call”. It’s not fair to them because really, they are just being normal 5, 7 and 8 year olds.  Our 5 year old daughter has gotten good at the virtual thing, but she’s still a 5 year old and you can’t just leave her alone to do it.  Honestly, my wife is a superhero for figuring it out when I’m not home.  But these are all the selfish reasons for wanting them back.  What really bothers me is I know at their age, they are not getting the same education and lacking the social interaction they need.  Most Teachers are working hard at it and deserve credit, but it will never be the same and no one will convince me otherwise.  

The only thing I will add is that it is clear that the school situation is taking a major toll on kids.  I see it in my three, who are in elementary and I see it in my niece and nephew in HS.  There is also an argument that less involvement in sports and extracurricular activities lead to kids spending more time congregating socially with friends where there is no control over reducing the spread (i.e. if you are at football practice, your coach is going to make sure you wear a mask when you should).  I won't get involved in taking a position one way or another for most of the other issues as that seems to often turn political, except when it comes to schools.  I think the data is pretty conclusive that bars, social events and private gatherings are MUCH more likely to cause outbreaks than schools.  I'm really concerned about the damage being done to kids. 

The media was the biggest loser in this election. No matter how things shake out,  I think people’s trust of the media and polling has to be down near zero, if it wasn’t already.

7 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The updated BTV NWS maps for this event are below.  As was noted, there are now some WWA over in NNH.  On the projected accumulations map, the numbers are up just a bit in the valleys, but some areas of 12-18” shading are appearing near the peaks.

 

I know those two peaks...if only two weeks later.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

This could have easily been the best event of a winter down there.

Beat my nj winter last year!!

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That looks pretty good TBH.  Really hard to say with the drifting.  The Jay base area is a notoriously terrible spot to try to get a real number at, lol.  Always 0-12" (except when it's 0-24").  

I bet it's pretty uniform 3-6" up and down the Spine.  I do think Waterbury looked to get the best of it on radar and friends have estimated similar to J.Spin of a 5-7" snowfall even at very low elevation.

I’ll have to get my special “jay” measuring stick for reporting totals this year.  It’s funny, they will always beat everyone in the east in snow totals, yet there’s still those rumors that they over report.  It will be interesting to compare my totals to theirs this year.  They should just get a summit snow stake cam and end the debate, though I couldn’t imagine ever getting a solid reading up on that ridge.

On 11/1/2020 at 2:30 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

Maybe this is what you were reading, not sure, but BTV has a nice succinct write up about it. Even non METS can sort of understand. 

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

 

Yep, thanks...that’s the one I was reading.  Good stuff.  If you find any others, pass them along.

Back camera not working so all I have is this crappy front door spot.  Wind must be going crazy up there so id just be guessing at totals, but it looks like we got a little less than down toward Stowe.

Tough to tell for sure on my cam, but it looks like a spotty, slushy coating on the sidewalk leading to my front door.  Disappointing to miss the first significant event up there by a week, but I'm glad to see the snow season officially kick off.

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow.

Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot.  I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range.

Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier.  This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through.

Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too.  Really nothing to complain about on this output.  The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases.  Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

Such a great educational post for someone like me trying to learn about these up-slope events.  I was literally just reading a paper about the blocked vs. unblocked events and froude numbers (all new to me).  So it looks like for the Jay/Mansfield area, we want an unblocked flow which leads to greater precip on the the eastern side?  What Froude number is best; anything over 1?  

37 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I know its different now and peoples schedules are more flexible, but I dont know how you can do a 6 hour drive for a weekend and then head back to NJ.  I'm beat doing a 6-7 minute drive back after a long day..lol

 

 

My wife is the same way; hates the drive.  Me, I just put on some tunes and go..the drive doesn't really bother me unless the weather is bad.  The weekend trips are a quick turnaround, but this year with the restrictions for VT, we will be doing bigger chunks of time up there.  During normal winters midweek, I'll make the drive to southern VT. in the same day all the time.  Anything north of Killington is a lot in one day, but I've done it.  Skiing is def a sickness in that way.

3 hours ago, Skivt2 said:

Killington is making snow now in the Snowdon area as well as the Northridge area.

They have a great window non-stop through mid week.  They would def be open in the glades during a normal year.  They just need to get through the seven day torch following mid-week.  Mt. snow blowing up top too.  

9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Thanks for the info.  I grew up in northern Morris County - anywhere near your NJ place?  Had some great winters there (some awful ones as well) including ~100" both in 60-61 and 66-67.  Took 3" on April 27 to reach triple digits in '67.

Down to 12-13° this AM.  Hit 12° on this date in 2002 for my coldest (before today?) morning in October.

I'm about 5 minutes from the Morris County border.  Your old spot in northern Morris is one of the better areas in NJ.  The areas with about 1000' feet of elevation there like Northern Morris, into Passaic, do much better than the immediate NYC metro and the rest of NJ.  In my area of NJ, we can do ok during some of the colder winters if the coastals track just right but the bad winters, wow, are they painful.  Unlike up north, the cold is more important than the precip.  Last year, we literally had no accumulating snow during the winter outside of maybe one small event.  11-12 was bad here too.  We had a good stretch in 10-11, 13-14 and 14-15 .  Snow retention is really the issue.  Outside of those three, I don't remember any winters recently that had snow cover for more than a week or two. 

I love being up North when it just looks like winter all season.  Northern VT is great too for the up-slope component; you don't have to have that big, perfect, synoptic setup to snow.  I'll take the 3-6 five days a week over the monsters.  I'm interested to compare how my location does with up-slope compared to PF, Phin, J spin and others and to compare what wind patterns and setups dump snow where.  Jay and Mansfield seem to do well in similar conditions.  This will be my first winter really spending a lot of time up there so I'm curious to compare event totals with everyone else.

Hey everyone; I've been posting in the ski season thread for a few years now but I never formally introduced myself.  I'm Chris and though my primary residence is in NJ I spend a lot of time up at our place in Jay and especially this year, will be up there for a good chunk of the winter.   I care much more about the weather up here than in NJ, so this is the thread I'll follow most.  Obviously, upslope is what gets it done at my location (1900',) so I'm looking forward to learning from you guys about the patterns to watch in this area.  Also, I figured it would be good to have a name to go with the f-u posts from the southern crew when I post pictures knee deep in powder from those three day long upslope events.  Enjoy the winter guys!

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Having to hang my hat on the GGEM is not a good thing.

Hopefully something changes in the next couple days for up here.

Think of the possibilities this winter..I could leave the rain in NJ, drive through the Snow in SNE and arrive at my place at Jay to light Cirrus.  They don't put that in the Northern New England brochure. 

3 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

 

He looks like my neighbor 

1 hour ago, Skivt2 said:

Sure.  I have an appointment at VT DMV as I’m considering changing my license and my car registration.  I have a year long apartment lease and a renters policy.  I have enough to prove residency should I chose to do that. If I move to VT on 11/25 what is the deal?  My pass is still locked because I lived in CT when they mailed the pass.  Seriously. Like I actually could just become a VT resident. Then what?  And then what would CT do?  Any idea how hard CT will fight to prevent you from changing your domicile because they want your income tax?  If I make the move and it’s an issue VT and CT can fight it out in court.  This whole thing is f’d up.

I really think you will be fine.  There is a reason they are preaching education as opposed to enforcement.  No one wants to deal with all the legal issues nor figure out a way to enforce the quarantine.  They just want people to do what you are doing and follow the guidelines...which by the way I don’t agree with, but will follow.  Day trippers driving up, booting up in their car, spending a morning on the mountain, then driving back are not going to lead to an outbreak.

37 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Yea I really don't have a clue. Someone on a forum mentioned it a few weeks ago and I thought it was BS. Mike S mentioned on the K-Zone forums they could and were not but clearly they are getting the info somehow. Maybe trying something before ski season? 

 

Side note, since they are going straight to T2B skiing, I wonder about their opening plan. Maybe get Snowdon lifts and Superstar Quad areas blown in and forget the Ridge? I would take that plan over the Ridge to Great Northern any year. 

I think just locking them by straight up county would be easy for them, but I don’t see how they handle the quarantine aspect of it.  And to just flat out lock out counties I think presents a legal argument...Vermont currently is not preventing interstate travel, they are just setting guidelines on how to do it...just my opinion, but I certainly believe you that it was/is being discussed.

I would agree get Snowdon first then you have the six pack and triple going at the same time to help with lift lines due to the restrictions..maybe they work on skye peak or bear earlier than usual to spread people out to that base area?  I’m not that familiar with their usual opening besides the ridge then snowdon.

11 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Interesting to hear some rumblings of Killington using RFID to track the counties where folks are coming from. Friend went mountain biking at Killington a couple weeks ago and they mentioned it. Second time I have heard this. Be curious if this practice keeps up for winter and if they are actually turning people away. 

But how would they be able to turn people away that are from a red county, but who actually did the quarantine, or who have moved to vt. for several weeks at a time, which I think may be a reality with so many working from home?  I assume they would use the address where passes were mailed or registered to?  I think they are really pushing the boundary legally if they start that.