bwt3650

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sutton on GoogleMaps looks to be located between say 400m and 900m (really might be 850m) in elevation.  That equates to 1,300ft to 2,900ft in elevation.  That's a significantly lower elevation for a ski area.  A 2,500ft snow measurement probably describes a good bit of it to be honest.  There is a non-noticeable amount of snowfall possible on average between that and above that.  All else aside.

 

Angle the mountain is with the wind slamming into it have any effect?  I just think about the difference in the wind riding up the jet on stateside vs. the freezer.  To the right of the freezer is wide open after about tower 15 and the wind direction and intensity is completely different.

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I just read the thread and do not see an explanation for the difference between Jay and Sutton. Care to elaborate? My guess would be Jays closer proximity to lake enhancement?

There’s some discussion about the additional 900+- feet of elevation and how up high, the higher rh leads to increased totals (see Pf’s explanation in the thread) on this, as well as where the measurements took place; with Sutton measuring near the base at 1800 feet in a “box” vs. snow board.  I would also think very slight differences in topography could result in some decent differences in totals when you multiply that over the course of a season.  Jspin will correct/elaborate I’m sure.

I’ve learned in the short time I’ve had a place up there and spent significant time up there last winter, the actual number, inflated or not, is irrelevant because they will always be near the top anywhere east of the Rockies.

and of course, the jay peak ruler.

23 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Let's hope for a repeat!

We’ve had places up here for two years now, phin. We’re due!

On 8/9/2021 at 10:38 AM, J.Spin said:

The November snowfall and snowpack at our site can certainly give an idea of what the month is like with respect to snow in the Northern Greens, but of course, data specifically from the higher elevations of the mountains is going to be even better when it comes to thinking about ski conditions.  With that in mind, the plot below has the snowpack depth from the Mt. Mansfield Stake at Thanksgiving for all the years that are available in that data set.

I think that snowpack depth at that time of year does have some utility with respect to what you asked about (trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like in terms of skiing around here in the Northern Greens).  For folks that just want to know if there’s going to be any skiing, I don’t think the natural snowpack depth is too helpful.  Manmade snow is going to guarantee that there’s at least some skiing, for those resorts with the snowmaking firepower and desire to open terrain, at least 90-95% of the time.  The natural snowpack depth is essentially irrelevant when it comes to that aspect of the early season.

The natural snow depth is definitely helpful in getting a sense for how much extra terrain might be open beyond the usual early season snowmaking routes, how much natural terrain might be open, what backcountry options there might be, etc.  From depth alone, especially a single point, it’s hard to get a sense for the ski conditions because you don’t know if that depth is what just fell and there’s zero base below it, or it’s just the slushy accumulation that’s hanging on because it’s warmed up after an earlier storm came through, etc.  At a certain threshold of snowpack depth (I’ll just throw out 20 inches as an initial value for discussion), you start to hit a point where it won’t matter if the snow just fell, if it’s melting remnants from a previous storm, if it’s fresh snow atop an established base, or whatever.  At some point, there’s going to be enough natural snow in place that resorts are going to open additional terrain.

-If one uses the 20” snowpack depth threshold, that would suggest you’re looking at expanded skiing in about 20% of seasons.  I bet if we checked reports from those seasons in the plot where natural snow depth was ≥20”, you’re looking at substantial additional terrain being open for Thanksgiving.

-Just based on first impressions, I think that snowpack of ≥20” is a virtual slam dunk for additional terrain being open at the resorts, so a snowpack threshold of 16” is also worth a look.  With that threshold, you’re looking at about 30% of seasons with expanded skiing at Thanksgiving.

-The lowest threshold that I think might be practical (and this is definitely pushing it with respect to natural snow terrain being able to support lift-served levels of skiers) is probably around the 12” mark.  You can certainly pull it off on well-maintained moderate or low-angle terrain if the snow is dense, but this is definitely going to be pushing it for lift-served.  Some resorts are more liberal than others are when it comes to doing this sort of stuff.  That would put the occurrence of expanded skiing at Thanksgiving at about 40% of seasons.  That is unquestionably a higher percentage than reality based on my years of skiing around here, but we’ll just throw it out there as an upper limit.  Jay Peak does have that bit of extra snowfall bump above Mt. Mansfield, so they may be the closest of any resort to that percentage, but it’s still definitely an overestimate.

I’ve roughly estimated the 24” snowpack depth threshold at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as when people seem to start venturing into the most amenable off piste areas (trees).  Experience tells me that the point where skiing well-maintained trails begins is definitely below that depth, but I’m not sure how low.  I can certainly look at some reports from past seasons to try to get a sense for it.

When it comes to getting out for ski touring on low-angle, well-maintained, on-piste terrain with fat skis; that can certainly be done on less than 12” of snow without concern for hitting the ground.  You can do that on 10” of snow easily, or even 8” without even bottoming out if the snow is reasonably dense.  The mean depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake on Thanksgiving is 10.7”, which suggests that in the appropriate spots at elevation, one should have a chance to get out for some natural terrain touring on, or at least around (due to the temperature inconsistencies at that time of year) Thanksgiving in 50% of seasons.  I wouldn’t be surprised to find that to be the case if I checked my records; it sounds very plausible.

Great stuff..thanks, Jspin.  I think the 12” mark is probably the dividing line between all man made trails and a few of the more hospitable natural trails up here.  With the lack of “vail” snowmaking fire power, the natural really helps avoid doing laps on the jet and northway for the first two weeks.   This data gives a good picture of what the odds are of a strong start in late November.

Big starts seem to carry through up here too, as once into mid December, climatology in the northern greens should do its thing.  

On 8/2/2021 at 10:30 AM, J.Spin said:

OK, I found the discussion that dove heavily into the differences between base and summit snowfall numbers for the Northern Greens.  It was actually over in the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums at First Tracks!! Online Ski Magazine.  The discussion began because Jay Peak recorded the most snowfall of any mountain in the lower 48 states during the 2014-2015 season:

https://skivermont.com/skivt-blog/2015/04/13/ski-vermont-receives-most-snow-in-continental-us-during-2014-15-season/

Actually, Jay’s reported snowfall was only 357” that season, but all of the Western U.S. outside of Alaska had a rather poor winter in terms of snow.  Looking through Tony Crocker’s numbers for the 2014-2015 ski season, even snowfall heavyweights like Alta and Grand Targhee were just pushing a bit above the 300” mark.  Alyeska still recorded 478” of snowfall at their 2,750’ plot though, so that area was probably tops overall in the U.S.

The snowiest season I can recall at Jay Peak was 2000-2001 when they recorded 513”, and I believe that was the same situation.  I think that number beat out all the resorts in the lower 48 states, but again not Alyeska, which recorded 638” at the 1,400’ elevation.  For some reason, Tony has 581” listed for Jay Peak in his 2000-2001 Ski Season Summary, so I’m not sure if he had to extrapolate some sort of summit number from a mid-elevation number, but he has the 513” number on his 2000-2001 Ski Season Analysis Page.  In either case, it wouldn’t top Alyeska’s number, so it would remain a similar situation to 2014-2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Peak_Resort#Snowfall

So, in terms of the base vs. summit snowfall differential, what came up in the First Tracks discussion were a couple of things.  There was confusion about where Jay Peak actually records their “summit” snowfall numbers.  It’s obviously not the actual summit of Jay Peak, since like Mt. Mansfield, that’s just a windswept area of rocks.  The collection spot is likely in a protected, leeward spot (or spots) near summit elevation where the summit snow collects.  It would be a spot like PF’s 3,000’ snow plot, or where the Mt. Mansfield Stake sits at 3,700’.  Unfortunately, Jay Peak doesn’t have a PF like Stowe does, or even a measurement camera like Sugarbush and Stowe are starting to use, so their actual system of measurement is rather obscure.

The second thing that came up in the discussion, and what also helped drive the discussion toward the details about base/summit snowfall differentials, was the snowfall at Mont Sutton, which is just a bit to the north of Jay Peak across the Canada-U.S. border.  People (Tony initially broached the topic) were confused as to why the annual snowfall totals (200” at Sutton) simply seem to fall off a cliff as you head north of the border.  The difference between reported snowfall at Jay and Sutton is so stark, that people thought Sutton might be reporting base area snowfall.

Anyway, eventually PF made it to the conversation, and talked thoroughly about the cause of the snowfall differential between the upper and lower mountain areas in the Northern Greens.  I’d already pointed out in the thread that the big differential is not due to an elevational rain/snow line, and PF came in to explain some very cool upslope stuff involving snow ratios, relative humidity, and mountain orographics that only someone like him would piece together.  If you like the meteorology aspects of mountain weather, especially as it pertains to snowfall, definitely check out the thread (linked below) and PF’s contributions.

In terms of rough upper mountain/lower mountain snowfall differential numbers, here’s a quote from PF in that discussion:

“I've done the numbers before and regardless of the type of winter, the upper mountain plot (3,014ft) will receive somewhere between 30-40% more than the base at 1,550ft.  It’s almost fail-proof.  If the upper plot gets 300", the base will be around 200" or at least that's the general association.”

I suspect PF will jump into this discussion at some point, so if people have questions or want to expand on that discussion at First Tracks, we can do it here.

Here’s the link to that thread:

https://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11837

Just read through that thread...Great discussion.  

58 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Looking at snowfall days for November, we can see that they were slightly above average this past season.  Although we don’t seem to get huge storms in November, it certainly comes across as quite a wintry month in terms of days with snow.  This is especially true over the past four seasons, where on average; half the days of the month have had snow.

Do you have snowfall depth data for November too; specifically, Thanksgiving?  Though last year had 12 days with snowfall, I think Thanksgiving had only a slushy inch on the ground at Jay and we were skiing on one trail for opening day.  I remember it snowing a few times the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but I think there was a washout right around then.  I think 19-20 was similar, but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.  I've only been up at Jay for a few years and rarely cared about early season up there before that, so I'm trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like outside of the past five years or so.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Is that at the summit or at your place? I didn’t think your place itself was that high. 

I just checked and 306 was the mountain’s official number.  Not sure where they measure at, but I doubt it’s up on that ridge at 3900’ with all the wind exposure.  I’m at around 1900’ give or take so I’d guess my actual backyard number was mid 200s.  The base/summit number spread isn’t as big at jay as it is at some of the southern Vt. Mountains being so far north, but obviously, still there.  I’m not there the whole winter so I’ll never get a true accurate number.  I’m sure @powderfreakcould speak to the base/summit spread at Stowe, which I would think would be greater, but in the same ballpark, as jay.

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That’s on the agenda. We ended up with 160” or so in Randolph this winter so it turned out OK. We needed more coastals over this way. But it was still a great winter. Plan to ski half the winter at Wildcat. Have season passes there, BW, and Cannon. We are getting stoked. 

Our season was decent, but most of April was crap and up there, that should still be a solid month.  I think we finished with a little under 300”.  We need a nice solid start this year and no grinch.

Wildcat and cannon are on my agenda this season .  Never been, but want to venture into New Hampshire this year.

40 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Lol. No I’m not hysterical. Im an advocate for vaccines, but it’s not the end all. I’ve said on numerous occasions that we need to go about our lives and not worry about it.  I said that over a year ago and still maintain that’s the case. 
 

 

This…Get busy living or get busy dying.

5 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Getting excited here. Plan to ski 5 days a week December to April. 

Get up to jay this year and live the upslope dream.

The official countdown begins!  Can’t wait.

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I think in Stowe there are some properties very close to 2,000ft but not sure any actually exceed that.  I know the NEK has some 2,000ft spots.  Jay Peak has residential units up to 2,400ft I think... same with Bolton Valley, as there's a residential road loop that goes above the base area even.

Southern VT probably has the largest area of inhabited 2,000ft+ spots.  Adirondacks are also way the hell up there.  Lots of spots 1500-2000ft that are valley bottom locations like SLK and Lake Placid.  Hard to fathom being at 2,000ft and in a valley with lakes around and 4-5kft terrain around.  Easy to see why those spots are so cold.

I'm somewhere between 1850-1900', which is higher than where the main lifts start.  The north Village may be up another 100-200' but that's about it.  The Stratton mansions under that one chair on the left side of the mountain may be a little higher tho.

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A couple inches on the Snow Cam last night.

God, it feels so good to talk about snow again...I feel so dirty after leaving the banter thread.

2 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

So only republicans are allowed to use the loop holes without scrutiny.  Build a wall though.... keep our slaves in. USA 

The "wall" is such a media created frenzy.  Both republican and democratic presidents have funded parts of a border wall, fence, gate, whatever you want to call it.  Both sides have failed the real issue, which is the need for immigration reform.  The media just uses it as manipulation to drive emotional responses.  

We keep using the term "free" as in free college, free housing, free broadband etc.  I think I remember learning somewhere, nothing in life is free.  The college isn't giving you free tuition; someone is paying for it.  Do you need a basic K-12 education to be productive and function in life; most do.  But you don't need college to be productive, even very successful.  College is not some sort of right for everyone.  I'd be favor more pre-school over college.

In regards to min wage,  why can't this just be left up to the states, period.  Cost of living varies tremendously throughout the country.  Big difference in $15 an hour in Mississippi vs. New Jersey.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I certainly wouldn't be sitting here still holding tens of thousands of dollars in the fake dog coin at this point. Just me...

Remind me again what I can get with one of those and who is hosting the conference call this quarter?  

'Some of you guys are doing really well, but when crypto trading dominates a weather forum, isn't that eerily similar to getting advice on pets.com from your cab driver in 1999?  I mean, tons of profits to be made; as long as it's money nobody needs to pay the rent when some of this stuff bursts.

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Incentives will eventually shift the narrative but sometimes it takes a while. The stigma of the skilled trades runs deep from the 1980s/1990s....our generation remembers it well. "You don't want to end up as a plumber, do you??!". Who's laughing now...the plumber pulling in 6 figures with little/no debt or the barista who has a bachelor of arts degree with 6 figures of debt?

Mike Rowe (The Dirty Jobs dude on Discovery channel for those who don't know) has been a good force in advocating and making visible the benefits of going the skilled trade routes. He goes around and talks to high school students all the time. It's starting to reduce the stigma of not going to a 4 year college.

This 100 percent....And many of the skilled trade workers wind up doing well in real estate and rental properties because they have those skills...plus, the big incentive is you don't need a man bun to be a plumber.

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we actually had a couple good elevation events up here.  Trying to remember the dates but I probably would've lost it if I didn't spend 12 hours a day at the ski area in the snow zone.  I think one of those was a good 1+ inch QPF white rain in town that accumulated like 2" of watery white slush... while 1,000ft+ had 8-12" of paste (January I think?).

I remember thinking I missed like another couple feet of snowfall this season by like 300ft  since a couple elevation events were so close to the valley but just not quite there.

 

3-6 seemed like the common depth for most of my drives up until I started climbing elevation on 242 this year.  Didn't notice much depth down low except for that one storm cycle post MLK where we up-sloped 2-3 feet all week after the base builder.  Seemed like consistent snow cover; just not great depth.

With the exception of the NFLX subscriber miss, those were some pretty stellar quarters for FAANG.  AMZN has gone no where for a year.  I'm no expert, but some of this smells like selling to play the crypto casino.  Don't really see people ditching amazon and their apple phones because we are reopening.  I'm a buyer and maybe suck up some pain temporarily for the long term on any 5-10 percent dips.

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol for Tue/Wed.

 

 

With Stowe closing today, I think Jay is calling your name mid-week.

36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm usually pretty even keeled but this is pretty high end warmth for this time of year.  Punctuating a snow season that shut off hard after March 1st and turned mild, staying mild.

Three straight days of record temperatures in some cases.  Yesterday spots like Montpelier and Massena sites shattered their records by 4-6 degrees.  The summits have had no shortage of record highs between the March and April torches.  It didn't help that it never really snowed aside from April 1 event.

But for whatever reason this is about as pleasant as you could make a record melt out... so much better to melt out with sunny warm beach days on the snow rather than a week of torrential rain or something.  I guess Mother Nature is throwing us a bone by at least making it enjoyable.

Near record low snow depth since 1954.  This is an unbiased observation site with a long period of record.  Always noteworthy to be on the edges of the graph, whether low or high.  The depth could be 140+ right now on the high end.

That’s just ugly...besides April 1st, it literally stopped snowing at the end of March and has been a non-stop melt..including above freezing nights.

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Daily Operations Meeting today had like a war room battle field type vibe.  We will not lose the summit!  Never surrender.  Drawing up plans to move snow back to the wind-swept top of the Quad using anchor cats and the winches, while other snowcats feed the winches to yank it back up to the unload.  The top of the lift sits on a knob and just never builds depths due to wind stripping, that's actually the weakest spot on the hill right now.  But this is when we start to get creative and it's some of the most fun parts of operations... when everyone starts talking like kids in a sandbox. Just adults talking about playing in the snow with a fleet of quarter million dollar machines.

It’s got to be fun trying to figure out how to make it work.  Mt. Snow lost the war and closed the main and North face.  I’ll give you guys credit for trying to pull off another week since economically, it has to make more sense to throw in the towel.  I’d guess no one is buying a day ticket and this year there’s probably not much food/bev either.  I understand everyone wants to maintain the latter closing dates in the archives for future late season reservations, but it has to be at a loss at this point. 

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Beautiful Saturday up north... still a bit chilly though surprisingly despite the sun.  The super dry air mass is keeping the snow cold mid-winter... a bit too icy now that the recent snow has been skied and blown around.

Need about 10-15F warmer for a true top 10 day.

The areas in between bumps is a "super fun challenge" today.  Dry and 40s-50s all week should set up for some nice afternoons.  We were about 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule last week.  This week should be right about where it should be, conditions wise, for this time of year.  

10” of fresh powder, untouched lines and blue skies...yeah, it’s that good out there.