bwt3650

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A very 2011-12 type winter so far.  Temps are almost identical to December 2011 in the mountains (this year might be a tad warmer).

Snow depth on the cam is hard to read due to a foggy lens but seems to be around 5” down from 13” yesterday.  So now under 2011 too.

Do you have the jay depth info?

5 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Has Jay really received 67" on the season? That's what their reporting. Gusts to 95mph tomorrow. Overstated?

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I bet it’s close, but very deceiving.  I haven’t been up there non-stop since November, but from when I have, I’ve seen probably 30-40 of that and I’m at about 1850’.  There was an early November storm that was over a foot and probably 10” this Tuesday.  Thanksgiving week we nickel and dimed about another 10” too and I know I missed at least one double digit upslope.  So at the summit, it may be a bit of a jay measuring number, but i bet it’s close.  The real issue is that there has been no real lasting pack.  Thanksgiving week washed away that Thursday, many of the early events only lasted a few days and this week’s is clearly gone.  The numbers were pretty average until about the last ten days, but the “pack” was way down.  The next week to ten days look like shit, but you never know up there.  I’m patiently waiting for that monster 2-3 week period where they put down 50-60 inches. Climatology and averages say it should come eventually.  When it has snowed though (like early this week) the conditions were fantastic.

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS and CMC ops both horrible for New Years. Any hope on the ensembles?

They get me over to snow eventually, but what another soaking prior.  When does all this blocking get established to stop everything from cutting to Milwaukee?

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week.

Thanks for the advice.

Feel better, bro.  Hate breaking a good cardio routine, but you get it back quick.

On 12/22/2020 at 8:59 AM, PowderBeard said:

Right? They haven't even opened the Flyer or any woods this year. MRG has only had the Practice Slope open. No Castlerock at Sugarbush or Madonna at Smuggs. When is the last time that happened in a December? Wildcat is essentially one way down from the summit. They all typically get close to 100% open for a weekend or two before a melt-down at the end of the month. 

There will be woods to find today, but nothing “open”.  The flyer was late last year too, but I think they had it up right about now.  There was a bad freeze last year right around now that left the whole mountain bulletproof until the last couple days of December when they got dumped on and dropped almost the whole mountain.  Compared to Stowe (love Stowe...but....) jay was skiing ten times better yesterday.  Stowe has more terrain open but it’s all blown and beat.  I think jay is actually being smart with their snowmaking.  They are burying all the connections and sacrificing some early season trails so when they do get it, they should last.  In past years they would have blown Haynes and maybe Ullrs or goat already, but with limited snowmaking, why dump 5-7 days into a straight shot ttb run.  At least that’s my guess.  When jay does get it, it will be THE spot this year.  Wildcat surprises me?  Don’t they have a fairly robust system and decent elevation?

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS would be ok there for 12/29. Foreign guidance is uglier though. We usually know how that movie ends.....lol. 

The pattern does have some upslope potential at times so I’m sure it will still give snow events for your ‘hood even if the synoptic ones are garbage. 

It would be nice to get a few synoptic storms to work out though. NNE could use the snow for base building on snow mobile trails and ski resorts. 

Jay had a nice powder dump last night, but we could still use an 18” bomb with good water content to get the natural trails and woods set for the season.  Hoping 12/29 trends a little better up here and then we upslope for a few days next week.

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The snow is just so “tired” up here without getting that big storm.  Just gets groomed and skied into oblivion each day... snow eventually breaks down to dust or ice granular with repetitive crushing.

Jay was jay this afternoon.  So many fewer skiers, the snow was in great shape by afternoon.  Tonight looks like it may over perform and they have to be close to being able to open up some glades up top.  It def looked skiable.  Some of the the upper half of Mansfield looked close to me if we add another 8 or so tonight.  Shame about Thursday because today could have made some real progress.

It is puking snow up here now.  Probably about 4” down so far. If it keeps up like this until midnight, should bust high and be great turns tnrw morning.

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Open 'em up today. Shut 'em down Thursday.

Tnrw could be good, but thurs is a disaster.  Maybe better by New Years?

Visiting the kingdom of @powderfreak...starting to snow pretty decent here.

Steady, very light snow so far.  About a half inch down.

Stopped at Mt. Snow on the way up today to grab some of last weeks storm.  Solid day.  The natural trails were soft and skiing well, but getting thin.  They probably have another day left and then are done.  My favorite trail jaws was one of the best there; soft manageable bumps right down the fall line.  Couldn’t get to the woods off Olympic, but off pdf there were still some decent stashes.  Busy day..prob about 15 minutes consistently at the bluebird.    Stowe tnrw morning and some laps here at Jay in the afternoon.  Jay needs snow bad.  This is such a great place but the border, quarantine and lack of snow really has to be destroying them.  Hoping the grinch storm delivers up here.

Decent 6-8 hours of upslope for the northern greens tnrw?  Ground is bare up here until about 1500’ and even up at 1900 there’s prob only 3 or 4.

A Christmas miracle?  Gfs has it snowing hard up here before midnight on Christmas Eve.  Would be nice to see more than one run of more than one model but it’s a start. 

Gfs seems to like a little upslope action tues/weds, though nam seems less excited.  Don’t think it will he enough to make a difference up at jay.  Much less terrain open than this time last year, though it really didn’t get good until after the new year.  Maybe we get this monsoon out of the way and get started on some decent pack.  I’m heading back up Monday and may stop at mt. Snow just to get some decent terrain.  I know it will come up here, but man, we need it.

23 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Was at the Mtn Ops office here at Stowe around 5am this morning for work, grabbed a shot of a groomer passing by on his way to the gas pumps.

I love the early morning energy of operations before a ski day.

That belongs hanging on a wall somewhere..great shot.

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was trying to book a Hunter mtn weenie drive but only one hotel out there taking reservations and its 260$ for a Wed. nite. Pass. . I'll enjoy my 10" in Bedford, MA.

 

Was there today..epic requires reservations and can’t get one for next 3 days.  They are going to get smoked.  Blowing a ton of snow this morning, even with everything on the way.

54 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This thread sure died. Not even a little bread and butter to talk about. Hope it picks back up soon.

10-20 likely in my northern Jersey home has my focus there these last few days.  Those storms are hard to come by down here.  I'm hoping the bread and butter starts up next week when I get back.  Its crazy that I might find more powder and open terrain this week in the Poconos, than the greens.  I'll throw some pictures up Thurs if this thing materializes.  Our time is coming up North tho.  I still think we get something around Christmas to get things going.

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

I grew up in Morris County, where that 37.7 foolishness is located.  However, if the current models verify I could see then getting 15-20.  (While I might get 1/2")

Still looking good for Metro Baltimore and Phin.  When I lived there it was total panic with everything shutting down for 4 or 6".

Spent 2 years there while at Hopkins.  64-65 had nothing beyond 4-5" and things went okay.  They got 7-8" on Jan 27, 1966 and that slowed things more, but when 15" and 50 mph winds followed 3 days later the city shut down.  I think Orleans Street was the only E-W road open and Charles Street the only N-S though the adjacent St. Paul opened the next day.  However, 10 days later side streets in the Hopkins area (2900 Charles) were still snowbound.

My NJ home is literally right below the 37.7.  I was going to head back up mid-week, but this storm will def delay that.  As you know, the hills of Morris County could do quite well in this set-up.  That area generally averages significantly higher than NYC metro.  With about 500 feet of elevation, a lot of slushy inch or two storms in NYC or more like advisory storms here.  Half of that number (the more likely scenario) would be big for this area.  In the awful winter of 2015-2016, we had that one storm that pulled about 30" and prior to that, 2003 or 96 are the last time we went over two feet here.  It can happen, but its rare.  I wouldn't say panic, but anytime there is a foot of snow forecast, you can bet the senior citizens will be packing the supermarkets and buying Milk and Eggs, as if thats the only food you need too survive.  

This storm looks good here so far. Its rare to have such model agreement this far out down here;  but I'm also hoping for the Christmas time frame to get something going up north.  Northern Green ski areas need a good one by now to get things going.  If I could pull off this down here, it could make for a great start to winter, as I''ll be back up north from next week through all of Jan, when we should be rolling in NNE.

I think my daughter was 3 1/2 working on her form there.  Mom snowboards, so she wanted nothing to do with skis.

13 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

I thought I was in decent shape in Feb-March until I started doing this. Been working out 4-5 days a week because she is now ~15 pounds heavier and I won't have many solo days.

And that’s how kids learn to ski before they can walk straight.  You’ve got a powder day partner for life right there.

31 minutes ago, radarman said:

Sparse trees on either side of Upper FIS are usually good to great.  Not many turns in there, but they hold it.  Cut over through the woods from the top of black diamond and it opens up.

Good stuff.

13 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

Haha I personally think Killington's marketing takes the cake when it comes to over-inflating #s. In terms of Jay Peak, when you look at South to North #s in VT, it isn't that far fetched that Jay Peak might avg 350" a year when Sugarbush > Bolton > Stowe axis is 250" > 300" > 314" respectively. Sure Jay has a reputation of over-reporting but I don't think its all that egregious, as that area does without a doubt get the most snow of any resort in New England. Killington on the other hand does claim the same 250" average as Sugarbush while being 40+ miles south as the crow flies. Do they avg more synoptic snow? Maybe, but that has to be a wash over the long term and they likely only get 50 and 25% of the upslope that Sugarbush and Stowe get respectively. 

In my four years working at Sugarbush (maybe I'm biased? lol) and three since, I've noticed that they tend to report a bunch of snow early in the year and then we've caught up and surpassed them in the later months. For example they are already reporting 46" inches on the season while areas south are in the teens and single digits while Sugarbush/MRG is in the 20s and only Stowe and Jay are 40"+. I wouldn't be surprised if their marketing angle is to hype up the SNE and NY/NJ crowd with higher snowfall totals in order to tap into that early season demand. That, or their snowmaking system is so powerful that they aren't able to discern between what is falling from the sky vs. what they are generating themselves haha. 

 

Quick question..As a sugarbush alumni, have you ever witnessed a day where upper FIS was not the iciest trail in New England?  Had some of my scariest moments on skis on that trail.  Love sugarbush tho.

Wow; my sarcastic jay measuring comment stirred some awesome data dialog.  Being up there I can definitely say Jay cleans up.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to back this up, but it just seems like that mountain position does a better job of wringing out the moisture.  The snow just seems to linger forever and add up.  As far as their reporting, they seem to be much more broad with their numbers and use ranges like “half a foot of powder landed” and even 6-8, as opposed to Killington who puts out 8”.  If they use the higher number always for their running total, I could see it being skewed high, but honestly, it’s probably close and if they really took accurate measurements up on that ridge, they get every bit of it.  That glade off the tram gets crazy deep.  I’m obviously biased, but jay is just a different animal.  You can’t compare the powder in their woods to anywhere.  North glade and andres will hold it for days.  
 

 It’s funny, I saw the Killington number the other day and was surprised, but didn’t see any of the cams or put together how off it was.  Numbers really don’t tell the story for each mountain tho.  I can find something I like best about each of them.  I don’t go to mt. Snow for powder; but I still love the north face.  And castle rock at sb just reminds me of exactly what you picture New England skiing as.  And Stowe, well, it doesn’t get much better than lapping the four runner on a powder day.  I can find something unique I love at most of them from south to north.  I just think day in and day out for consistency tho, the northern greens are going to give you the most reliable conditions in the heart of winter.

1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

If you do some Killington math I bet you could scrape 900' out of it.

With Killington doing the math on the vert and Jay peak doing the snow measurements. it would be quite a place..