bwt3650

did one last day at jay peak today to close out the season.  Fog was crazy thick at the summit but snow and trail count was decent for late April. Crazy how some trails that were listed as open just 7 days ago are now completely bare with dirt and rocks.  It’s disappearing quickly. 

Such a tough call..on one hand, probably enough snow overnight for one last good day at Stowe or jay...but to drive all the way there and be on wind hold all day..

54 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

From a friends video it looked to be snowing down to 2000ft at Stowe an hour ago.  I've got 3-5" for Mansfield tonight.

How are the winds there?  Would you think there would be wind holds on the lifts tmrw am?

Thinking about jay peak tmrw and heard maybe 6”..anybody have any thoughts on the wind forecast for tmrw and what the odds are of wind holds are?  Not sure what jay shuts them down at.

Anyone have any thoughts on jay vs. sugarloaf early next week?  I heard the jay glades are still loaded with snow.

Anyone been to southern Vermont last few days (Snow/Stratton/Okemo)?  How are the conditions holding up?  Was thinking of going one last time Monday if we get a few inches Sunday.

soi-negative

mjo-8-1 (although maybe a retreat to 7 for a time)

ao- going strongly negative

nao- slightly negative

pna- positive

with this in our future, we should have some decent shots over the next two weeks.

Mjo spending a couple weeks in 8-1, soi double digit negative and the best looking model runs all winter..may amount to nothing but get some sleep because it looks like we finally have multiple threats to track for at least a few weeks 

you cannot group a storm by type (i.e. cutter, hugger, etc) and automatically predict the outcome (all rain, all snow etc.). Clearly the coast with have p-type issues, but predicting that high (one of the better placements so far this season) is just as important.  The winter may bust from the blockbuster some of the hype mongers were predicting, but for the first time in a while, we have snow chances...we are all here to track winter storms and in the next three weeks, we should have some to track...it’s a win at this point 

2.5” in Alexandria nj (Hunterdon county)..drove from Somerville (nothing and rain) 25 miles west to Hunterdon.  Rain/snow line was right about exit 24 on Rt 78 near Readington nj.  Temp went from 34 to 29. 

May not always agree, but I appreciate that you offer reasoning and interpretation for your thoughts.  Some others just want to say that they disagree because that’s not what a particular model says.  Thanks to everyone who offers more than just “the gfs says this” 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I'm not a pro by any stretch, but doesn't it seem like the NAM has been firing on all cylinders the past few years? Or is it just recency bias?

Maybe a met could chime in, but I agree that the days of laughing at the nam seem to be over..in the last two years it appears to have nailed some pretty significant events.  It seems that the days of having the euro/nam combo be the most reliable are back..has there been an upgrade?  Or is it really just a few lucky wins?  

2.25 down..26 degrees heavy snow in hunterdon cty. 

Temp down to 26 from 29 in Alexandria nj. About a 1/2” down